Cyprus-Forum.com

[brother]

There you go, how long did it take for us to agree something good for all and at the same time we all feel winners and trust just grew amongst us.

[Alexandros Lordos]

Alex i feel that if economic restrictions would be lifted they still would vote yes as they as much as gc want to live in peace not fear.

Yes, it is true that most TCs are motivated by the desire for peace, but those who put Peace high on their list of priorities (again from my survey) tend to prefer a two-state solution (and the current status quo is just a two state solution waiting to happen). Why this preference? Because many TCs are afraid of GCs and therefore afraid of re-unification. When they say "peace", they very much mean "peace from GC aggression" ... which is best achieved (in their eyes) through total separation.

So the "peace" argument is a two-edged sword, for some - like yourself - it is a motivator for re-unification and for others - the majority of TCs I fear - a motivator for partition.

Again, I express my belief that the dominant trend amongst TCs now is that they want solution of the re-unification type for economic benefits, otherwise it is not a very attractive option - a lot of property and security will be sacrificed. People like you, who genuinely care about re-unification for its own sake, are not rare amongst GCs but neither are you the majority.

Correct me if I am wrong (and forgive me if I sounded presumptious, it was not my intention), after all you are a TC and you know your own people better.

[Alexandros Lordos]

use both under g/c and t/c admin. and EU AS oversight.return ammohostos to there rightful owners,enhance the green line regs.open more crossings.

Excellent thought! Imagine, having joint GC and TC control of Larnaca Port AND Tymbou airport. That way, TCs won't complain that they are "being dominated" and GCs can't complain of "seperatist tendencies".

Well done guys! So now, who is going to tell our leaders?

[metecyp]

So, anybody care to make a guess, what percent of the second group would vote "Yes" even if economic sanctions were lifted?

Economic benefis are definetely not the only motivation for TCs. You know what is the biggest problem of TCs? Not being able to govern themselves. A federal solution will enable TCs to govern themselves in some degree.

Secondly, migration of TCs and their replacement with settlers is a big problem. A solution will guarantee a stop on settlers.

Third and almost most important problem is uncertainty. TCs both living in Cyprus and abroad are not sure what to do with their lives. Even the house they're living in is not certain, it might be gone in 1, 5, or 10 years. I heard people in Morphou do not repair their houses or invest in Morphou in case Morphou will be given back to GCs. A solution will get rid of uncertainty both for TCs living in Cyprus and abroad and it will definetely create the environment for TCs abroad to return back.

Finally, of course the huge military structure in the north and the fear of something happening with GCs is a problem.

As you can see, even if economic sanctions are lifted, it won't affect the incoming settlers, it won't gid rid of the uncertainty, it won't affect the military structure in the north. That's why we need a solution and I believe most of the second group will still vote "Yes" if they think deep enough to answer the question.

[metecyp]

So the "peace" argument is a two-edged sword, for some - like yourself - it is a motivator for re-unification and for others - the majority of TCs I fear - a motivator for partition.

I don't agree the peace is a motivator for partition for the majority of TCs. I was there when 80.000 people demonstrated for peace and democracy couple of years ago, and I don't think that the crowd meant partition at all when they said peace.

[turkcyp]

Dear Alex,

You know we have discussed this carrot and stick analogy before,

All the last 30 years the whole world used the stick on us and carrot on you guys. We got the international economic isolation you got the EU. So in return you prospered we have stayed the same. So getting all the economical benefits they want why would GCs want to compromise in the Cyprus solution. Do not tell me that GCs does not care about economical benefits. The answer to that would simply be found by answering this question.

- If GCs faced the economical sanctions we have faced for the last 30 years would they have voted “yes” for the Annan Plan. For god’s sake let the economic sanctions alone, just the EU would have solved the problem. If the EU in 90s had told GC that RoC can not become a EU member unless there is a solution in Cyprus than we would have a solution by now.

This carrot to GCs and stick to TCs scenario was a very bad mistake. The best scenario would be to use stick-stick scenario. That would really force two societies to come together. But that would be best scenario in terms of how fast we can find a solution. Not in terms of that both communities had found the solution they really liked.

The second best alternative would be to have carrot-carrot scenario. That would not force the societies to come together because of economic reasons but would force societies come together because of benevolent reasons. And I believe that solution would be the one that would have the highest chance of lasting.

The worst one was to give carrot-stick scenario where you put stick to one society and carrot to the other one.(It really does not matter who gets the stick and who gets the carrot). This would force one society to find a solution and would give other society the incentive to keep on waiting till the other party comes around to what they want. This kind of solution will never last because the solution would not be a solution of compromise, but one side getting everything they want and the other side is just happy to accept the bread crumbs put in front of him.

This last scenario brought us all the way today. And it seems from the actions of Papadopoulos he is even willing to wait more and more.

If the world really wants to find a solution to Cyrus they should either apply carrot-carrot or stick-stick. Carrot-carrot can be achieved to some degree by easing the sanctions on TCs. Stick-stick scenario which would actually make all Cypriots suffer for a while for example would be that EU comes around and say that before there is a solution, Cyprus will be put on hold in EU.

I let the GCs pick one of the two above. But the more you guys insist on carrot-stick, the less TCs will trust you.

As simple as that,

Take care,

[Alexandros Lordos]

As you can see, even if economic sanctions are lifted, it won't affect the incoming settlers, it won't gid rid of the uncertainty, it won't affect the military structure in the north. That's why we need a solution and I believe most of the second group will still vote "Yes" if they think deep enough to answer the question.

Yes, metecyp, I think you are probably right.

Furthermore, by reaching an agreement on the issue of trade, in which GCs are clearly perceived as having been helpful, the first group (ie those who genuinely wish for reunification) will itself grow ...

[brother]

I would love to tell our leaders but these are things they already know in my opinion.

Alex your assesment is not wrong but i also know tc would very quickly forgive and forget with the right actions from tassos, thats all is needed.

Notice that i try not to use the termanology your people or my people i still very much believe we are the same people who speak two languages.

[boulio]

Economic benefis are definetely not the only motivation for TCs. You know what is the biggest problem of TCs? Not being able to govern themselves. A federal solution will enable TCs to govern themselves in some degree.

whose been governing them they last 40 years?

[Alexandros Lordos]

I let the GCs pick one of the two above. But the more you guys insist on carrot-stick, the less TCs will trust you.

Fair enough, every bunny needs its carrot I suppose ...