by Alexandros Lordos » Thu Jan 27, 2005 7:00 pm
From my survey, I found that TCs feel about the Cyprus Problem in three different ways:
- Solution for re-unification: About 23% of TCs
- Solution for economic benefits: About 44% of TCs
- Intransigent and insular attitudes: About 33% of TCs
Now, I wonder, if the economic isolation is lifted now, how many TCs would still vote "Yes" in a future referendum?
The first group would still vote "Yes", because it wasn't money they were after in the first place. So that's 23%.
The second group will be split. Some will still vote "Yes" with the reasoning that "Free trade might be a good thing, but becoming an automatic member of the EU through the Solution is even better". Others will vote "No" with the reasoning, "Well, we have free trade now, we can prosper economically, why bother to return territory and property to GCs through a Solution?". The critical question is, how many will be swayed by the first argument and how many by the second? For an overall "Yes" vote we need at least 27% from this group, ie about 60% of the group, to be swayed by the EU argument.
The third group will almost certainly vote "No", since they despise the EU anyway.
So, anybody care to make a guess, what percent of the second group would vote "Yes" even if economic sanctions were lifted?
Last edited by
Alexandros Lordos on Thu Jan 27, 2005 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.