Cyprus-Forum.com

[boulio]

i never read the full text of the plan however there were always some questions i had:

1)return of refuges- what was the total of refuges returened both to the new territories under g/c control and to the t/c constitet state.

2)why didn't the guranterors of the plan(GB,GREECE,TURKEY) approve the plan before the referandum?
was it true that even in a yes-yes vote that if any of the gurentorers did not vote for the plan there would be no legal entity on the island.

3)was the presidential council stronger than it really seemed from the NO voters on the G/C SIDE,and were there any other issues that were "falsley" represented by the G/C no VOTERS?

4)TERRITORIAL RESPONSIBILTIES AND FIR?
Were these assigned to the federal govt.or to the costituent states?

5) were the cost of a settlment that high? some figures put it a 15 billion,was there any independent study done concerning costs?

[Alexandros Lordos]

1)return of refuges- what was the total of refuges returened both to the new territories under g/c control and to the t/c constitet state.?

Theoretically, almost all refugees would have been able to return (at least in terms of residency, not necessarily property). About 80,000 would return under GC administration, while another 70,000 could theoretically, in the long term, also return under TC administration. However, the TC side insisted in the negotiations that strong dicincentives should be put in place to discourage the relocation of GCs in the north, and our side didn't really contest this demand. I've said in another post that Clerides didn't really believe that it was important for people to be able to return under TC administration - he focused mostly on the territorial adjustment. With the various dicincentives in place, such as the 18 year delay before any serious numbers of refugees would return, it was -sociologically speaking-unlikely that many GCs would make use of their right to relocate. Firstly, because at any one time the number of refugees that could return would be too small to create a critical social mass, secondly, because in two decades most of the refugees would be dead or quite old anyway, and thirdly, because in two decades the TC state will have established itself as an ethnically pure Turkish state and it would be very difficult to then bring in large number of GCs.

2)why didn't the guranterors of the plan(GB,GREECE,TURKEY) approve the plan before the referandum? was it true that even in a yes-yes vote that if any of the gurentorers did not vote for the plan there would be no legal entity on the island.?

Well, you can't approve a legal agreement before it is even made, but they all agreed that they would ratify the agreement right after the referendums. Papadopoulos insisted and it was made clear in the plan, that the agreement would only be valid after ratification, so there was no real danger there - at least not in Annan 5.

3)was the presidential council stronger than it really seemed from the NO voters on the G/C SIDE,and were there any other issues that were "falsley" represented by the G/C no VOTERS?.?

Yes, the Presidential Council was one of the strongest points of the Plan, even Papadopoulos acknowledged that. if you look at thirty years of proposals, since 1974, you'll find that the Presidential Council proposal was by far the best. It strikes a good balance between political equality, administrative functionality and majority rule, and also encourages the rise to power of moderate politicians. Those who insisted on a strong executive presidency were people who did not properly consider the balances that a solution would need to keep.

4)TERRITORIAL RESPONSIBILTIES AND FIR?
Were these assigned to the federal govt.or to the costituent states?.?

The Federal Government was responsible for border-control, and also only the Federal Government could grant citizenship of Cyprus (which was a prerequisite for attaining constituent state citizenship). I am not sure about FIR though.

5) were the cost of a settlment that high? some figures put it a 15 billion,was there any independent study done concerning costs?

Well, 15 billion was the amount of money that would have to be "moved around" ... that's not exactly the same as costs. So, about 10 billion was cash that would have to be transferred as compensation for exchange of properties, and this doesn't really count as cost (though it could still cause serious problems in the Economy's monetary flow, with strong fluctuations in property value and possible inflationary or deflationary pressures). The rest, about 3-5 billion, was the actual investment cost of the solution, and it mostly consisted of the resettlement cost for TCs and settlers who would have to move, the rebuiding costs of GC houses that would be returned and would need renovation (most notably, Famagusta), and the cost for the construction of the various buildings that would house the Federal Government.

Ex-president Vassiliou did a study, which you can download at www.kema.com.cy It is useful, but I am not sure if it covers all the angles.

[MicAtCyp]

So, about 10 billion was cash that would have to be transferred as compensation for exchange of properties

Do you mean the money that would be paid for expropriated properties already used by the State/s for public purposes? Sorry but that would not be payable in cash! I don't remember exactly how much that amount would be, but I am almost certain it was below 1 billion. Anyway, may I ask your source?

If you mean the initial cash required for the property committe to commence, no that amount would be much much smaller. (If my memory is correct only 100 thousand) Notice that according to Vasiliou study:

The conclusion based on the assumptions outlined above, is that the Property Board will be self-supported and possibly produce significant profits.

The assumptions made by Vasiliou were of course based on the Anan Plan , so it is upto anyone of us to think how the hell that committe would make a profit in the end when the properties it would sell inside the TC state would go for peanuts to the settlers and the TCs exclussively. As far as I remember for 19 (?) years it could not be able to sell to any other buyer...
My conclussion is that those GCs who would not manage to exchange their properties with equal TC property right from the start, would end up with empty hands in the end, or some bonds that on maturity would not be enough to buy them a bicycle.

Sorry Alexandre but I don't agree with you that " most of that money would just move around and should not necessarily mean cost" .This is an economic theory that considers all money that moves around as "no cost". In this way the losses of the Cyprus Stock Exchange (how much were they 3B?) would mean no real cost. The reality however is different. Money represent "work" and "work" costs money.

Basically Vasilious was the first study that concluded the cost to be 16 Billion. Then the Planning Bureau made a study that concluded the cost to be 15 Billion, and then DESY made his own lowering the cost to only 3.5 billion Cyprus pounds!!

In my opinion what was certain is that
a)Both component States would declare bankraptcy within the first year unless the provisions of the Anan Plan were bypassed so that the Central state would distribute its funds more appropriately to keep the component states alive
b)Having done this however it would have no money to implement the costs for re-location of people etc, to prepare Famagusta for inhabitation etc etc.

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Regarding the right to return heres some information for bullio

According to the Anan Plan some 8% of the land will be returned under GC administration.However for a refugee to return to his property, this should be free. A property is not free if: (a) if it is used for public purposes (School, street, governmental building, medical centre etc) (b) if it is used or required for military purposes (c) if it is used for 10 continuous years by a TC, and the Turkish Cypriot has his own property that he wishes to exchange (d) if the property has been subtantially improved by the TC or Settler user. (e) if it belongs to Organisations (that is to say companies, associations, institutions etc). This property will be compensated.

Based on the Anan Plan the matter of properties will be solved based on international law, the rights of the oweners (refugees) the bizonality, and the rights of current users (TCs and settlers). From there and beyond there are two groups of refugees
(a) those that will return in the TC Constituent state and (b) those who will return in the GC Constituent state.

(a) Return under TC administration
The Greekcypriots should not exceed the 1% of population of the TC Constituent state the first year of agreement, the 2% the second year, the 7% in the seventh year etc etc upto 20% in the twentieth year. (1% per year) After the twenty years (I believe finally they got reduced to 15) the return will be freer and the Greekcypriots can reach upto one third of TC population. However, because the return of refugees is connected directly with the regulation of the matter of properties, the return of these refugees is impended, because: according to the moratorium no property will be returned before the first 3-5 years. So, the first 4 years it will not be possible for the 4% of refugees (about 8000 people) to return. The Anan Plan is conflicting!
Furthermore: In order for someone to return he must get approval from the Council of Properties, which Council will accept applications for one year after the signature of the fundamental agreement and for another year after the implementation. That is to say the process of applications will be completed roughly two years after the signature of the primary Agreement. Then it will begin examining the applications… But once again, the poor refugee who will finally get approval, will NOT be eligible to return because there are another 3 conditions: a) The Council of properties must have decided for at least the 90% of the applications b) the percentages(1% per year) are met, and the applicants age gives him priority over other applicants and c) An alternative roof for the family that already lives in the house is found.

Tell me how many years are need for all these to happen, considering how many thousands applications this Council of Properties will receive, and how many thousands homes should be built before some refugees could finally return to their houses.

(b) Return under Greek-Cypriot administration

In order for a refugee to return the property must first be declared returnable by the Council of Properties. Provided however the property is used, then this property will only be returned when the present user is settled elsewhere. This process will last according to the Plan three years maximum from the signature of Agreement. That is to say in the first three years, the TCcomponent state is oblidged to accomodate the 40-45 thousands that live today in these regions. Where and how only God knows. Many of them will have the right to remain in the properties if they buy the property or get accomodated privately in the region.

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One question if I may:
Don't you think you should get informed about the Anan plan 10 months ago?
I mean what the use of trying to learn about it now. Do you think it has any chance to revive?

[boulio]

Don't you think you should get informed about the Anan plan 10 months ago?
I mean what the use of trying to learn about it now. Do you think it has any chance to revive?

it was just to much to read,and yes i have a feeling it will be revived with adjustments.

[Alexandros Lordos]

Do you mean the money that would be paid for expropriated properties already used by the State/s for public purposes? Sorry but that would not be payable in cash! I don't remember exactly how much that amount would be, but I am almost certain it was below 1 billion. Anyway, may I ask your source?

No, that's not what I meant by cash, I included in my definition of cash all forms of financial compensation, including bonds and shares.

The assumptions made by Vasiliou were of course based on the Anan Plan , so it is upto anyone of us to think how the hell that committe would make a profit in the end when the properties it would sell inside the TC state would go for peanuts to the settlers and the TCs exclussively. As far as I remember for 19 (?) years it could not be able to sell to any other buyer...

Would the committee not be able to sell to foreigners? Please clarify this for me ...

Sorry Alexandre but I don't agree with you that " most of that money would just move around and should not necessarily mean cost" .This is an economic theory that considers all money that moves around as "no cost". In this way the losses of the Cyprus Stock Exchange (how much were they 3B?) would mean no real cost. The reality however is different. Money represent "work" and "work" costs money.

Well, if the Property Board collapses then the cost will indeed be very real and would lead to the ultimate bankruptcy of the Cyprus Economy ... and I do agree with you that the Annan Plan provisions would probably lead to exactly such a collapse. However, with a properly functioning Property Board no real cost would be involved: Land will be exchanged for Money (in the form of compensation), and Money will be exchanged for Land (in the free market). But because the amounts of Money and Land that would be moved around are immense, the risk of destabilising the Money market and the Land market is very high ... and one way to reduce this risk will be to reduce the number of transactions - ie, allow much more of the property to revert to original owners, and therefore leave a lot less to be settled through the compensation system.

In my opinion what was certain is that
a)Both component States would declare bankraptcy within the first year unless the provisions of the Anan Plan were bypassed so that the Central state would distribute its funds more appropriately to keep the component states alive
b)Having done this however it would have no money to implement the costs for re-location of people etc, to prepare Famagusta for inhabitation etc etc.

true, true ...

Having said all this, how do you see the property issue being resolved, while still retaining the basics of a Federal bizonal solution? I remember you said in another post that the TC state could be reduced to about 18%, and this perhaps would reduce the compensation aspect, but at the same time it would sharply increase the cost of relocation ... (since about 100,000 TCs and Settlers would have to be relocated). Is it perhaps impossible to solve the Cyprus Problem?

[MicAtCyp]

Alexandre,
It's almost 10 months now that I studied all those things, therefore I will reply just from memory, without being absolutely sure what I say is correct.

No, that's not what I meant by cash, I included in my definition of cash all forms of financial compensation, including bonds and shares.

As far as I remember the only obligation of the Fed State would be for expropriated properties for public use.The bonds and the shares were not included in the cost of a solution (in any study) as they would be the absolute responsibility of the property committe. So the 10 billion you mentioned was not for that purpose.

Would the committee not be able to sell to foreigners? Please clarify this for me ...

As far as I remember the restrictions of buying land in the TC Const. State were such that no, only TCs and Settlers could buy. In the GC State though it would be totally free. If my memory is correct the TCs wanted this because they said the GCs would cheat and buy land at very low prices through private aggreements with foreigners, that would enable them transfer the deeds to their names after the 19 year period.

Having said all this, how do you see the property issue being resolved, while still retaining the basics of a Federal bizonal solution?

Oh, for this I can give a definite answer. It is impossible unless there is massive violation of the GCs human right on their properties!

However it has about 30% chance of happening by itself once you let the people exchange/sell/rent their properties privately at will. And it can be proved that this transaction will not affect the prices in the market! It will be something like a stock exchange market.This 30% chance increases the smaller the area under TC control is and reaches certainty if that is reduced to less than 18%. I already gave a reply to Turkcyp regarding this in the last part of my post at the "Europe to produce a solution" thread.

Regarding the cost for relocation:The Anan Plan thought that the new State would be some sort of a Sheikh Emirate.Who said that the new state should undertake the cost of relocation of each and every person? In principle the state should only help those who could not do it by themselves after exchanging/selling/renting their own properties and certainly not for free.

Secondly the administration area of the TC Fed State does no necessarily need to include all the TCs that now live in the North.A relatively high percentage can live outside that area under GC administration! The fact is that they will be very near/very close to their Constituent state,boundaries, have a lot of their own people speaking the same language around them etc etc.

Thirdly we tend to forget that the matter of properties does not really mean houses. Properties on the average mean 1 house +(10-20) donums of privately owned land.

I hope I ‘ve been helpful.