Which ‘Republic of Cyprus’ is to be recognised by Turkey before accession talks in October? There are at least three in the frame. The first, of course, is the one established by the London/Zurich agreements of 1960 and which is already recognised by Turkey. The second is the 1963 ‘Republic of Cyprus’ which by the terms of the 1960 settlement is illegal, and which was overthrown by the Greek-inspired coup of July 1974, itself also illegal. The third is the present-day government which is internationally recognised but which, since it is committed to reunification, is at best a caretaker government until the two-community ‘federal government’ intended to replace it comes into being (it is this commitment to such a solution which underpins international recognition).
A settlement of the Cyprus problem is, we are told in some quarters, essential before Turkey goes into the next round of talks in October. If in the event this is to be achieved, then the ‘Republic of Cyprus’ to be recognised will not be the present one, but the one which emerges as a result of the settlement deemed essential. As with the federal solution proposed by the Annan Plan this would have to be ratified by the three Guarantor Powers — Britain, Turkey and Greece — so that formally the new settlement legally replaces the old one of 1960.
But given the small chance of settlement by October, what is the position then? It is not an EU requirement that Turkey's recognition of the ‘Republic of Cyprus’ obliges it to renounce its existing recognition of the TRNC, or for that matter its recognition of the 1960 Republic of Cyprus — still the only legal government for the whole island until such time as it is replaced by an alternative and agreed successor.
If Turkey recognises both the ‘Republic of Cyprus’ while continuing to recognise, as it will, the TRNC, it is then recognising simultaneously two governments in Cyprus, and therefore the division of the island into two different states, with the ‘Republic of Cyprus’ as no more than the government of the south, whatever its pretensions to be more than that. At the same time, Turkey's 1960 recognition of the Republic of Cyprus remains in being, for it cannot be revoked until, as with Annan, a new settlement is ratified by all three Guarantor powers — and the other two have not revoked. The contradictions are obvious, and can be made sense of only if the two governments, north and south, are each seen as temporary and provisional administrations until such time as they are remerged into one.
Although the ‘Republic of Cyprus’ claims to represent the whole island in the EU, the north is not in the EU, and recognition by Turkey of the south will not change that fact. The present “Republic of Cyprus’ is not the government of Cyprus for in a settlement it would cease to exist, as would the TRNC. So without a settlement —there won't be one in the timescale — all that is required of Turkey is a gesture which in fact only confirms the reality of the status quo, and gives the south no more than it has now.
The TRNC will continue as before, a de facto state outside the EU. The ‘Republic of Cyprus’ will be such in name only until it is replaced by a federal government in the settlement it says it wants and in order to be part of what it says it already has. The 1960 Agreements will remain the only legal constitution of the island until superseded by a settlement ratified by the three Guarantors.
So Turkey, subject to all these caveats, signs. Seven days later, the world will have forgotten all about it. So why the fuss?