Well I think it’s about time I raise my foot.
Observer’s opinion that over time things tend to stay the same is true assuming there are no other factors involved.
However the Cyprob is a dynamic case and it only needs a little spark to turn everything upside down. It is still dynamic from the side of the GC refugees who wait for the day they will recover from their loss on property, from the TC refugees who wait for the same, as well as for the total of TCs who wait for a normal life out of isolation due to occupation.
I personally haven’t nociced any loss of dynamic all those 33 years…
So according to the factors involved this dynamic may change everything. Remember from 1974-2002 we had the Turkish dogma that the Cyprob was solved in 1974 and Denktash;s idea that all that’s left is compensations, shaking of hands, and agreed partition. Cyprus’s EU accession changed this dogma from partition to agreed unification…
Even if the situation remains as it is today, the possibility for recognition of the occupied areas from the superpowers (how about the EU?) is nil. The possibility of even just one side proposing partition is nil as well. The possibility for the GCs to agree on partition less than nil. The possibility of the Gcs or their inheridors to accept losing their properties nil as well (too much money).
What will perhaps change is the already small percentage of GCs/Tcs willing to return in case of a solution. But this does not mean they will forget about their existing or to be inherited properties…
In the forseable future we have the following factors that will definetely spark up the dynamic once again. I don’t see anyone sparking it towards partition though.
a)Turkeys EU road
b0Turkeys final step to either full membership or special relation.
b)Petrol in the south seas (estimated to start getting pumped out in about 7 years)
c)EU trying to slowly take over economic factors affecting the occupied areas
d)Elections in Turkey and Presidential elections in RoC.