Hi Kikapu,
I only just noticed your reply. Anyway, as I currently cannot sleep I will take some time to respond.
First of all, let me ask you from where you get this figure of 800 billion USD for spending on the war in Iraq (and Afghanistan)? Please quote your source. The only figures I could obtain were between $500 and $550 billion for the entire spending on the “war on terror”.
And please do not insult your readers by saying we cannot understand what a “billion” is. First thing to say is that you are (correctly) quoting the US / economic billion, i.e a “thousand million”, and not the traditional British definition of a “million million”. But please, whilst it is an incomprehensible amount to imagine sitting there in e.g loose change, we can all deal with the figure as a relative amount.
Is it a lot of money ($800 billion, or even $500 billion)? Yes and no. Consider, for example:
* due to procurement and R & D costs, a SINGLE B2 stealth bomber aeroplane cost the American taxpayer $2 billion [Ref: “Skunk Works”, Ben R. Rich (former head of Lockheed’s secret “Skunk Works” development unit) & Leo Janos] (funded by the CIA’s “black budget” program).
* A single Nimitz class aircraft carrier costs $22 billion to run, through its entire life (with or without the Iraq war!) [Ref: Federation of American Scientists Military Analysis Network,
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/cvn-68.htm]
* The entire US defence budget for 2007 was some $439.3 billion [Ref: Official White House information,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2007/defense.html]
* The US national debt currently stands at $8.7 trillion and is currently increasing by an average of $1.47 billion every single day! [Ref: US National Debt Clock,
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/]
As I said, I am sure you will find the spending on the war in Iraq will be dwarfed, in time, by total budget spending (including R&D costs) as a result of countering the threat from “rogue” and other hostile states to the US in the future. Not a bunch of insurgents. However, admittedly I did not expand on the costs of the war in Iraq although they are fairly obvious, and include: supporting & supplying the vast numbers of troops there, including troop movements in and out of the country; maintaining and renewing military hardware: largely munitions but also tanks, helicopters and some aircraft; and supplying ammunition.
Speaking of the Vietnam war, spending on the entire Vietnam war – in today’s money – works out as $600 billion.
[Ref: Institute for Policy Studies, Case study
http://www.ips-dc.org/iraq/quagmire/].
Surpassing that cost figure would be yet another reason for withdrawing from Iraq as soon as possible, and why the US would NOT want to keep its troops there any longer than necessary.
Incidentally, I was interested to see you referred to those that “lost” the war in Vietnam as “we”. I had not realised you were an American citizen?
So, I say again, I do not believe the US wants to stay in Iraq for ever. Your only argument for it seems to be the fact that they are “building several permanent bases”:
And yes, the US does want to stay in Iraq, for ever, is the reason, why they are building several permanent bases, and a US embassy in Baghdad, that has the largest number of personnel, which is over 3,000 at one of Saddams Palaces.
Well, if this is indeed the case (no citation made) then this does not mean anything. Supporting the US military machine must be a logistical nightmare, so I am not surprised that they are building some bases. These might be given to the Iraqi military after the withdrawal…. And anyway the cost of these bases is surely an insignificant loss should the military withdraw any time soon.
And given that there are currently some 132,000 US troops in Iraq
[Ref:
http://usliberals.about.com/od/homelandsecurit1/a/IraqNumbers.htm]
then basing 3,000 at the US embassy doesn’t sound that many at all to me.
I agree that Bush has made a mess of it all, and you may be right about his tactics (as in how he plans to resolve the situation) although personally I think he is hoping for “one final shock” to leave the US in a position where it can finally start to reduce troop numbers.
And regarding the possibility of a Civil War….
But of course, if they can't beat bunch of "rag tags" imagine what will happen, if all of Iraq, turned against the Americans. The Shites want all they can get for themselves...the OIL. They hope the Americans get a "bloody nose" and leave, so that they can start the civil war officially
Yes, I believe you are correct about the aspirations of some Shi’ite leaders (note: don’t call them “Shites” that is another way of saying “shits” in English and I’m sure they would be offended if they thought you were calling them a bunch of “shits”). They are the majority and would want to dominate the Sunni minority. But then there are also the Kurds, which might try and form a Kurdish state of their own incorporating part of Iraq, Syria and Turkey: something these latter two would certainly not be willing to tolerate. However note that I think that would, at least, keep Syria relatively “busy” if civil war did break out in Iraq.
I’m not quite sure what point you are trying to make here, though. If the point is that the US won’t leave because of the resulting civil war and the influence of Iran, well I’m not sure. I can’t see a situation where the US will leave “completely” any time soon, but I can see a situation where pressures at home will force a drastic reduction in current US military presence. Currently the US just seems to be fighting forces that are rebelling specifically against the US. And hence that doesn’t seem to be getting Iraq or any other nation anywhere in the long run.
Finally…
if you don't think the USA is in a lot of trouble, then I don't know what to say to you.
I don’t know why you seem to think that I don’t believe the US is “in a lot of trouble”. I agree that it is, one way or the other. I don’t think I ever suggested I thought otherwise? Perhaps your final sentence was directed at other readers than myself?
Kind Regards,
Pete