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Storm yesterday...

Feel free to talk about anything that you want.

Postby devil » Tue Feb 06, 2007 5:49 pm

I hope they get good weather - lots of rain!!!! :D I promise them only weather!

Weather forecasting is extremely difficult. It is easier if you have a network of Cray supercomputers and sophisticated algorithms. It is very difficult, even in the short term, if the only data you have is from a single, isolated weather station in the foothills of the Troodos mountains, feeding in to a PC. The software I use revises its forecast every hour, but what it says can apply to 10 minutes to 48 hours ahead. If you wait long enough it is often right. For example, it currently says "partly cloudy and cooler". Well, there is a fairish chance it will be 100% correct in the next few hours. If I look at the curves at http://www.cypenv.org/weather/wx2.htm I can offer a complement of guesses. For example, I can see that it will be chilly tonight. I can see we are climbing out of a zone of instability, which means I'd make an educated guess tomorrow will be relatively fine and sunny but probably some clouds, with little or no rain. What I cannot see is where the depression which has just passed us is going. It is not impossible that it could backtrack on us, in which case today's or yesterday's weather could repeat itself. Alternatively, another one could gallop in to take its place: there is no way I could know without an analysis of weather system data from the mid-Atlantic to India and Finland to the equator. I don't have access to this data nor the computing power to process it. That is why I cannot give reliable forecasts; I can tell you only what I measure and what I can interpret from these data,
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Postby villawagen » Tue Feb 06, 2007 10:35 pm

have you ever heard the story about Michael fish devil ??????
he was a bbc weatherman who made a very big forcast mistake in 1987 ish i think!!!!!!!

classic weatherman who got the blame situation !!!!!! :shock:
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Postby rawk » Tue Feb 06, 2007 10:51 pm

All this global warming has blown my fence down - twice!

Even though the posts (2 metres) were concreted in, the ground is so soft from the rain the wind just blew them over. I had to fork out for those spiky things you hammer into the ground and fit the post in. £8 each in B & Q.

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Postby devil » Wed Feb 07, 2007 10:47 am

rawk wrote:All this global warming has blown my fence down - twice!


Sorry, but global warming has nothing to do with it. There is total confusion between climate and weather in many peoples' minds. Weather may be a result of climate and is used to determine climate. If something happens in a short term, like a wind blowing over a fence because the ground is wet, this is because of weather, not climate. The so-called 'global warming' is not a term generally used by scientists because some regions will have colder weather because of climate change. If you wish to know more, there is some very recent reading on climate change (~20 pages) here
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Postby Dadalushe » Wed Feb 07, 2007 2:53 pm

We were staying in our house in Potamiou during the storms, but were just preparing to leave and return to the UK. It is not a new development, in fact it is about 200 years old (we think!). Unfortunately, due to the amount of rainfall and the direction of the wind, the rain got under the tiles and through the lounge ceiling. We had to leave towels, buckets and bowls all over the place. The upside of all this, is that we will have to return in the next couple of weeks to pick it all up and wash the towels. Bummer eh!
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