donyork wrote:The oil question in the eastern Med seems to be much more worrying than some of the yah-boo comments on this site seem to suggest, with the risk of costly even fatal political consequences long before any bucks turn up in the till. The long-running dispute between Greece and Turkey over the Aegean was the cause of much sabre-rattling only a few years ago and remains unresolved. But the estimated value of the Aegean is markedly less than that for the sea between Turkey and north Cyprus — reports put it at worth 50% of Turkey’s present imports. Until now, however, the political issues relating to exploration have made its development problematic firstly because big companies are reluctant to invest mega-millions in disputed areas and secondly because Turkey’s EU process made any development too sensitive to pursue.
The concern in this current furore is that the RoC knew perfectly well that its secret agreement with Lebanon (seen in Ankara as a dummy) would infuriate Turkey and and if implemented would be cause for Turkey — which, of course, does not recognise the RoC — doing everything it can to start exploration in the sea to the north with whatever partners it can find. The RoC will then dispute their right to do so, the EU will be dragged into the row, and a new crisis will blow up which may very well full stop any hopes of a resolution of the Cyprus problem with partition the outcome. The question is whether in these circumstances the EU will act as mediator — in order to keep Turkey on board — or back the RoC with Turkey in consequence abandoning its EU process. The short-term outcome is therefore high risk, for a cash return which at best is many years away and where one of the partners — Lebanon — is also high risk.
It might have been preferable perhaps if the RoC had first sought the approval of the EU on the basis that it would through the EU guarantee that the interests of the TCs were generously taken into account (earning political goodwill which would have at a stroke silenced TC protests with potentially the prize of driving a wedge between the North and Turkey) but Papa Dop is not the man to play his cards that way. So Cyprus is yet again another headache for Brussels, caught up once more in the obsessive gamesmanship of the RoC. There is always a price for oil. So what price here?
Tpap did not want unification because of the cost to the RoC and perhaps now wants it even less because he is hoping that the TRNC say what some of us here are saying and that is "Take your oil and leave us alone". If he can get the oil and not have to recognise the TRNC/KKTC then even better. I think its time for a concerted push for recognition.
