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Who knows the future?

How can we solve it? (keep it civilized)

Postby insan » Mon Jan 03, 2005 1:26 am

I think that people learn from their mistakes.


Saint Jimmy,

In early 20s, it all started with a dispute whether the majority would rule or the TC community which was constituting %30 of the population have the political equality.

In the past 80 years and even today the core point of the problem is the same. If today, there has been no settlers, no guarantorship of foreign powers and even no territorial disputes; nevertheless, be sure of that GC leadership would insist on "majority rule".
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Postby Saint Jimmy » Mon Jan 03, 2005 1:40 am

OK, I'll give you that,
but my point is not that conflict of views will disappear (that would be utopian!). The point is that, when it comes down to an outright disagreement, we (GCs and TCs) will not resort to the stupidities of the past. We know that can't work. That's why I'm hopeful.
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Postby magikthrill » Mon Jan 03, 2005 10:19 am

Bananiot wrote:Nothing short of a victorious war will see all the refugees back to their homes and all settlers repatriated back to Turkey. In any negotiated solution or an agreed solution as Papadopoulos likes to call it these days, settlers will stay and the longer the solution takes to arrive the more the settlers that will stay. All refugees cannot return and those politicians that promised and still promise that we will all return to our homes should make an effort to tell us how this can happen. Slogans to this effect win domestic support but do not solve issues. The Anan plan gave a considerable amount of land back to the GC's, including Famagusta and Morphou and almost half of the sovereign british bases. We were promised a better deal and we voted against the plan. Once in Europe, we were told, we could negotiate a better solution. We are waiting to see this better solution.


Bananiot,

If this solution is never achieve then the only thing that will happen is the TCs will remain in their isolated impoverished corner with their only hope for the future being the disillusioned promises of the new turkish lira. or even worst if the pseudo state is internationally recognized then no more EU money.
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Postby insan » Mon Jan 03, 2005 11:02 am

If this solution is never achieve then the only thing that will happen is the TCs will remain in their isolated impoverished corner with their only hope for the future being the disillusioned promises of the new turkish lira. or even worst if the pseudo state is internationally recognized then no more EU money.



A recognized state on North of the Island does not need EU's money. Tourism and its side sectors would be more than enough... So magicthrill, you don't worry about TCs.
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Postby -mikkie2- » Mon Jan 03, 2005 12:21 pm

Insan,

There will be a big price to pay for recognition of the north.

Who has the right to nullify the ownership of property in the north? Whoever sanctions such a move will have to pay a heavy price.
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Postby insan » Mon Jan 03, 2005 12:43 pm

Insan,

There will be a big price to pay for recognition of the north.

Who has the right to nullify the ownership of property in the north? Whoever sanctions such a move will have to pay a heavy price.



Surely, there will be a price to pay for recognition of North. The ownership of property won't be nullified. It will be solved with exchanging, buying,selling and compensating... The doors of internal and international courts will be open to all holders of a right. This is their problem. They either choose to compromise reciprocally or bring the lawsuits to the relevant institutions. Let Turkey to think how to compensate the cost of the settlers and let Greece to think about how to compensate the loss of TC refugees of 1963-67 period... All relevant parties will pay their share... TCs as individuals(Except some several thousands plunderers) have nothing to worry about it because most of them have equal amount of properties left in South. And most of the new generation of TCs have paid the price of the houses they have been living in.
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Postby Alexandros Lordos » Mon Jan 03, 2005 4:43 pm

Saint Jimmy,

first of all, welcome to the forum! And thanks for starting this fascinating thread ...

The reason I believe the Annan Plan wouldn't work, is because:

a. Its provisions were very close to creating two ethnically pure states, with very little common ground between them. The plan had various disincentives built in, to ensure that very few GCs would return under TC administration. The federal government would have been a constant battlefield of conflicting demands and threats of veto ...

b. The presence of Turkish troops in moderately large numbers for two decades, would have amounted to a subtle yet critical political force, directing political developments in the TC state and also in the TC wing of the Federal Government. Again, the result would be conflict between GCs and TCs. It is like a married couple deciding to live in with the mother in law ... divorce is guaranteed within 5 years! :)

c. Even though the constitution stated that secession is forbidden, there was no actual mechanism to enforce that. And because we are talking about a Federal rather than a Unitary state, a TC walk-out would not mean that The United Cyprus Republic would continue to be operated by the GCs ... rather, the Federal Government would collapse leaving the two sides in a position of having to seek separate recognition. We have the legal precedent of Yugoslavia, where no side was allowed to claim control of the Federal State.

Anyhow, keep on thinking positive ... we need people in this forum who will pick us up and get us out of the grumbling mode ... :wink:
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Postby insan » Mon Jan 03, 2005 5:48 pm

we need people in this forum who will pick us up and get us out of the grumbling mode ...


Alexandros, you seem like one of those people. What's your suggestions for a just and viable solution to the Cyprus problem.
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Postby Saint Jimmy » Mon Jan 03, 2005 7:33 pm

Hey man, thanks! This is a very interesting forum. I'm just sorry I found out about it so late...

Alexandros Lordos wrote:The reason I believe the Annan Plan wouldn't work, is because:

a. Its provisions were very close to creating two ethnically pure states, with very little common ground between them. The plan had various disincentives built in, to ensure that very few GCs would return under TC administration. The federal government would have been a constant battlefield of conflicting demands and threats of veto ...


This is an opinion concerning the future. How can you be positive about it? European countries have the right to veto some decisions. When have you heard it being used? It's a matter not only of good will, but (this concerns us the most) also of what can happen if we behave irresponsibly. I think I don't need to say more: we can all get screwed big-time (again), and that's why I think both sides would be sensible and logical if a solution was implemented.

Alexandros Lordos wrote:b. The presence of Turkish troops in moderately large numbers for two decades, would have amounted to a subtle yet critical political force, directing political developments in the TC state and also in the TC wing of the Federal Government. Again, the result would be conflict between GCs and TCs. It is like a married couple deciding to live in with the mother in law ... divorce is guaranteed within 5 years! :)


The 'mother in law' thing is a great analogy:)
Seriously though, you are again trying to guess what's going to happen, but you take it for granted. How can you? Suppose we make it through the first two decades and the army is practically gone? Is there no chance of that? I try to refrain from excessive use of history in this, because history does not just repeat itself; it also teaches us things (sometimes). I think this is one of those times.

Alexandros Lordos wrote:c. Even though the constitution stated that secession is forbidden, there was no actual mechanism to enforce that. And because we are talking about a Federal rather than a Unitary state, a TC walk-out would not mean that The United Cyprus Republic would continue to be operated by the GCs ... rather, the Federal Government would collapse leaving the two sides in a position of having to seek separate recognition. We have the legal precedent of Yugoslavia, where no side was allowed to claim control of the Federal State.


OK, but why would any of the two component states want to secede? The TCs wanted to secede from the Republic of Cyprus because they felt it didn't work for them, right? (Or, to be precise, GCs wouldn't let it work for them... Remember the early 60s). Can you think of any reasons why the TC component state would want to secede? A united country, a federation in the EU, in which things function fairly smoothly. It could happen... Couldn't it?

Alexandros Lordos wrote:Anyhow, keep on thinking positive ... we need people in this forum who will pick us up and get us out of the grumbling mode ... :wink:


Is 'the grumbling mode' what our 30-year-old political propaganda (and its creators) have got us into? I don't know either... Just food for thought! :)
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Postby pantelis » Mon Jan 03, 2005 9:20 pm

This is a good discussion but it would lead nowhere, unless we define what we mean by political equality.

What is "political power" and how does it translate to "people's power".
What is the definition of "people's power"?

Briefly read the following two articles, before answering: "What do we really want in Cyprus?"

http://www.trinidadandtobagonews.com/fo ... /read/1520

http://www.e-ariana.com/ariana/eariana. ... ent&Click=

What are the safeguards, that a 50/50 government will serve the interests of the people and not the personal interests of the "leaders" or the outside interests they may be contracted to serve?

The problem is not what percentage of what race will run what part and how much of the island, but how is the island going to be run?

This has to be the toughest chapter to offer advice on as the world's despots never seem to know what it is they really want. So you need to dig deep and decide what your motivation really is. Money? Power? Revenge? Hatred of one particular race, creed, or color? None of those will make you very popular afterwards, as the long-standing implications of taking away other people's power, money or lives will likely make you the target for reprisals.


Do we not have problems with the present leaders and the way the govern? What should be the responsibilities of the new governors of a united/federation of Cyprus and what should be the responsibilities of the people to these governors? Are the TC and GC going to contribute differently? Is that what we are fighting about?

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=& ... tnG=Search


I am not trying to sell anything with this post. All I want to define, is what are we actually looking for. At the end of the day, when all the property issues, the settlers, the refugees, the armies etc, are settled, what do we want to be left with? Money and a better life of course, but how are we going to sustain these, if we do not have a smoothly functioning system of governance, without room of corruption and as little as possible... exploitation by the "big capital"?

What are we after?
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