Hey man, thanks! This is a very interesting forum. I'm just sorry I found out about it so late...
Alexandros Lordos wrote:The reason I believe the Annan Plan wouldn't work, is because:
a. Its provisions were very close to creating two ethnically pure states, with very little common ground between them. The plan had various disincentives built in, to ensure that very few GCs would return under TC administration. The federal government would have been a constant battlefield of conflicting demands and threats of veto ...
This is an opinion concerning the future. How can you be positive about it? European countries have the right to veto some decisions. When have you heard it being used? It's a matter not only of good will, but (this concerns us the most) also of what can happen if we behave irresponsibly. I think I don't need to say more: we can all get screwed big-time (again), and that's why I think both sides would be sensible and logical if a solution was implemented.
Alexandros Lordos wrote:b. The presence of Turkish troops in moderately large numbers for two decades, would have amounted to a subtle yet critical political force, directing political developments in the TC state and also in the TC wing of the Federal Government. Again, the result would be conflict between GCs and TCs. It is like a married couple deciding to live in with the mother in law ... divorce is guaranteed within 5 years!
The 'mother in law' thing is a great analogy:)
Seriously though, you are again trying to guess what's going to happen, but you take it for granted. How can you? Suppose we make it through the first two decades and the army is practically gone? Is there no chance of that? I try to refrain from excessive use of history in this, because history does not just repeat itself; it also teaches us things (sometimes). I think this is one of those times.
Alexandros Lordos wrote:c. Even though the constitution stated that secession is forbidden, there was no actual mechanism to enforce that. And because we are talking about a Federal rather than a Unitary state, a TC walk-out would not mean that The United Cyprus Republic would continue to be operated by the GCs ... rather, the Federal Government would collapse leaving the two sides in a position of having to seek separate recognition. We have the legal precedent of Yugoslavia, where no side was allowed to claim control of the Federal State.
OK, but why would any of the two component states want to secede? The TCs wanted to secede from the Republic of Cyprus because they felt it didn't work for them, right? (Or, to be precise, GCs wouldn't let it work for them... Remember the early 60s). Can you think of any reasons why the TC component state would want to secede? A united country, a federation in the EU, in which things function fairly smoothly. It could happen... Couldn't it?
Alexandros Lordos wrote:Anyhow, keep on thinking positive ... we need people in this forum who will pick us up and get us out of the grumbling mode ...
Is 'the grumbling mode' what our 30-year-old political propaganda (and its creators) have got us into? I don't know either... Just food for thought!