Cyprus-Forum.com

[Sotos]

Some years ago I bought shares of Bank of Cyprus. Then the price went down a lot along with the rest of the stock market. Now it is up again and if I sell them now I will make a small profit. Should I sell or I should keep them and wait for it to go higher?

Keefe Bruyette places Bank of Cyprus among top list

Keefe Bruyette is bullish on European banks suggesting an overweight bias on the back of expectations that the spreads will improve, leading profits by 10% on average higher. The investment house forecasts the 2007 p/e ratio of the banking sector at 11.4 times, with the highest growth rates in terms of profitability forecast for Greece, Austria, Spain and Germany.

Keefe Bruyette also sees more mergers & acquisitions among European banks, placing the shares of Alpha Bank, Bank of Cyprus, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse, Depfa and Unicredito among it top list.

In terms of M&A, the Keefe Bruyette analysts see banks such as Bankinter, BPI, Depfa, Bank of Cyprus, Hypo Real Estate, Northern Rock, Spoleto, Alliance & Leicester and Carifirenze as prime takeover targets.

The list of banks likely to be among the buyers include Barclays, BBVA, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Millenium BCP, Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, Unicredito and HSBC.

[joanna]

Going into the Euro at the end of the year may make the market unsteady so i guess whatever your going to do, decide before then!

[michalis5354]

You keep them I think . You may wait to see how the new offer of Bank of Piraeus for BOC . Bank of Piraeus may make a better proposal after BOC rejecting the last one. My mother has many shares of BOC and this is what I advised her. I have Popular Bank shares and the price is almost doubled. Definetly I will keep them at the moment and see the market trend this month and then decide.

Today BOC has risen to 11,18 euros and CPB 8,34 Euros.

[Johnson&Johnson]

I would probably say sell.

The CSE seems to rise and fall in tandem with other world exchanges, and we should expect a big slide pretty soon, especially stateside.

Gold and silver seem to me to be the best investments around right now. The value of gold has increased from around 280 dollars per troy ounce in November 2001 to around 640 dollars per troy ounce recently - although it has dipped a bit lately. China, Russia and Saudi Arabia have signalled that they will begin to diversify their huge USD reserves soon, and it looks like the value of gold will climb up further over the next few years as they spread their risks away from paper currencies into tangible assets such as precious metals and energy. Of course, gold does not yield any dividend, and investing in it is a form of pure speculation. However if you are speculating in paper shares then I think the risk is much lower with gold. It's something worth looking into.

I am also very skeptical about the Cyprus housing market. I think it's a bubble and it's going to burst very soon. I was having dinner with an accountant friend of mine recently, he does the books for a lot of small and medium sized developers. He is of the opinion that their finances are all on shaky grounds and they will start to slash prices in a big way very soon.

Property prices here have departed from the realm of sanity. We have a huge crash underway in the USA right now which will intensify in 2007 as 1 trillion USD worth of mortgage debt resets to higher interest rates. As the subprime lenders go under, this will impact the UK property market and burst that bubble as well. Now, we all know that Cyprus property prices are only being propped up by British buyers. once they stop purchasing real estate here, the market will correct, and correct sharply.

Watch this space.

[G.Man]

Making a small profit is not what shares are about, so find out what the profit forecasts are for the bank, as the general trend is up at the moment

[Svetlana]

I would guess the introdcutionof the Euro will inevitably bring the Banks greater profits, one way or another!

Lana

[michalis5354]

At the moment all Banks have an upward trend. I expect their prices to move even higher(Or maybe I am wrong) given the fact that all banks have improved profitability Also the common trading platfrom with Athens Stock exchange will shift Greek investors to acquire Cyprus Banks rather than their local banks trading at prices of 25 euros each.

OR Maybe I am wrong.

[Sotos]

thanks for your help Johnson, some don't agree with you about the property market in Cyprus ...

Cyprus, Britain and France will be the property hotspots of 2007, while emerging destinations, such as Bulgaria and Croatia, are expected to cool, according to property specialist Assetz.

The Cyprus property market is expected to perform well, rising by a minimum of 10%, Assetz predicts, adding that the Cypriot property market is also poised to perform well in 2008, when it adopts the Euro.

Then, it will have to cut interest rates to the currently-lower Euro rate, making borrowing cheaper.

The British property market looks set to perform particularly well during the next 12 months, largely on account of a continued imbalance between supply and demand.

Other western European destinations, such as France are also poised to providing strong competition to emerging destinations at considerably lower risk, Assetz said.

London is expected to lead British growth, with prices in the prime central locations of Belgravia, Knightsbridge and Mayfair set to double within the next decade.

France should see growth of 8% during 2007. Investors in Spain, Turkey and Poland will also fare well, the property firm predicts.

Economic growth in eastern Europe will keep capital gains in some newer European Union members, such as Poland, above 20% during 2007, Assetz says.

Turkey will emerge as a hotspot for holiday home investors, with capital growth standing at around 20% and a surge in demand from locals pushing prices higher.

And, although growth in Spain has fallen to 10.8% from 12% in early 2006 -- and is likely to continue slowing into 2007 -- demand from British holiday home-buyers and locals will continue to support the market.

"With the UK performing so well, many investors will be opting for the low-risk approach and keeping their money in UK property, now it offers strong returns that can compete on the international stage," Assetz Managing Director Stuart Law told Reuters.

Assetz also expects the Germany property market to heat up, as a nation of renters start to buy bricks and mortar.

Around 43% of Germans own their own home, compared to 66% of Britons and 85% of Spaniards.

[Johnson&Johnson]

sotos

i am certain it will crash

you will see within two years, the market here will be in crisis, as will the markets of britain, spain and france

germany will rise - property there is undervalued

let's revisit this thread in 2009

[Johnson&Johnson]

I see that the world stock markets (including Cyprus's small bourse) took a massive plunge this week. So I guess you were all wrong and I was right. In any case, Sotos has probably missed his chance for some small profit-taking on those shares.

Is this mini-crash the start of a full-blown panic ? I guess we will see before the summer.

Property next - I expect the property crash (including Cyprus) to begin in early 2008.

The signs are all there - open your eyes people !!!