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The Impact of Turkish Accession



The Commission's impact study on how the EU would be affected by Turkish accession indicates that the overall balance is positive. Turkey’s accession to the EU may make a positive contribution to the Union. But, as Prodi said last week, the country’s size, geographical position and traditions as a regional power, its defence capacity, population and demographic growth, its current level of development, the disparities between its regions, its infrastructure and the size of its rural and farming population call for profound reflection and clear precautions in conducting accession negotiations, so as to prevent Turkey’s integration from weakening the structure we have been building for over 50 years.

The impact study is modest in its claims. It does not seek to be exhaustive or to predict the future while essential parameters such as economic growth in Turkey and the Union remain uncertain. Nonetheless, it does already draw attention to sectors that will require lengthy periods of preparation and adjustment in Turkey’s policies, notably rural and farming policy. Long transition periods will be needed, and sometimes, as with the free movement of persons, permanent safeguard clauses could prove necessary.

Turkish integration cannot be included in the 2007-2013 budgetary perspective, now under discussion within the EU. Negotiations on the chapters of the Turkish accession treaty that have financial implications can only be started on the basis of the financial perspective for the following period.

The report has been developed in response to the suggestion of the European Parliament in March, and is relevant, says the Commission, to the consideration of the capacity of the European Union to absorb new members.

It says Turkey’s accession would be different from previous enlargements because of the combined impact of Turkey’s population, size, geographical location, economic, security and military potential, as well as cultural and religious characteristics.

There are positive aspects to this analysis. These factors give Turkey the capacity to contribute to regional and international stability, says the report, and expectations regarding EU policies towards these regions - which include Iran, Syria, and the Southern Caucasus - will grow as well, in view of Turkey’s political and economic links with them. 'Much will depend on how the EU itself will take on the challenge to become a fully fledged foreign policy player in the medium term in regions traditionally characterised by instability and tensions, including the Middle East and the Caucasus', the Commission recognises.

The assessment also notes that Turkey is at present going through a process of radical change, including a rapid evolution of mentalities. 'It is in the interest of all that the current transformation process continues. Turkey would be an important model of a country with a majority Muslim population adhering to such fundamental principles as liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law.'

The economic impact of Turkey’s accession on the EU would be positive but relatively small, both due to the modest size of the Turkish economy and to the degree of economic integration already existing before accession. 'Much will depend on future economic developments in Turkey. The launch of accession negotiations should help the continued efforts of Turkey to ensure macroeconomic stability and promote investment, growth and social development. Under these conditions, Turkey’s GDP is expected to grow more rapidly than the EU average.'

Accession of Turkey, a lower middle income country, would increase regional economic disparities in the enlarged EU, in the same way the most recent enlargement has, and this 'would represent a major challenge for cohesion policy'. Turkey would qualify for significant support from the structural and cohesion funds over a long period of time, while regions in present member states could lose their eligibility for structural funds support.

The Commission says the integration of Turkey into the internal market would be beneficial - but the benefits will depend on the fulfilment of obligations under the customs union and on other reforms, such as strengthening corporate governance and regulatory frameworks, intensifying the fight against corruption, and significantly improving the functioning of the judiciary.

With over three million, Turks constitute by far the largest group of third-country nationals legally residing in today’s EU, and there are varying estimates of expected additional migration following Turkey’s accession. 'Appropriate transitional provisions and a permanent safeguard clause could be considered to avoid serious disturbances on the EU labour market. However, the population dynamics of Turkey could make a contribution to offsetting the ageing of EU societies. In this context, the EU also has a strong interest in that reforms and investments should be made in education and training in Turkey over the next decade.'

Agriculture is one of the most important economic and social sectors in Turkey and would need special attention. Under present policies Turkey would be eligible for substantial support. But continuous rural development efforts and better administration would be required for it to participate successfully in the common agricultural policy, and time would be needed to make some agricultural sectors more competitive, and to avoid substantial income losses for its farmers. In the veterinary area, major efforts would have to be made to improve the animal health situation and controls at the eastern borders in order to avoid serious problems upon accession.

Turkey’s accession would help to secure better energy supply routes for the EU. It would probably necessitate a development of EU policies for the management of water resources and the related infrastructure. Because of their sometimes considerable trans-boundary effects, good implementation by Turkey of other EU policies in the fields of environment, transport, energy and consumer protection would also have positive effects for EU citizens elsewhere.

The management of the EU’s long new external borders would be an important policy challenge and require significant investment. Managing migration and asylum as well as fighting organised crime, terrorism, trafficking of human beings, drugs and arms smuggling would all be helped by closer cooperation, before and after accession.

The budgetary impact of Turkish membership to the EU can only be fully assessed once the framework for the financial negotiations with Turkey have been defined in the EU's financial perspectives from 2014 onwards. Transfers to Turkey would depend on changing factors, such as the EU’s policies and any special arrangements agreed with Turkey in the negotiations, as well as the budgetary provisions in place at that time, in particular the overall budgetary ceiling. However, it is clear that the budgetary impact on the basis of present policies would be substantial.

Based on current acquis, the cost of extending the existing Common Agricultural Policy including rural development to Turkey would amount to €8.2 billion by 2025, the first year it is assumed 100% of direct payments would be due - with €2.3 billion for rural development funding, €5.3 billion for direct payments and €660 million market expenditure, all at 2004 prices. For regional policy, Turkey would be eligible for significant levels of structural operations expenditure, which could amount to an additional €2.6 billion of expenditure per year. The estimated actual budgetary cost of full direct payments and market expenditure would be €8 billion and €1 billion respectively in current prices.

As to the institutions, Turkey’s accession, assessed on the basis of the Constitution, would significantly affect the allocation of European Parliament seats of current member states. In the Council, Turkey would have an important voice in the decision making process in view of its population share, which would be reflected in the Council voting system. The impact in terms of the Commission would be less important given the planned reduction of the members of the Commission from 2014 onwards.