by MR-from-NG » Fri Dec 01, 2006 7:00 pm
[COMMENTARY]
A Perfect Storm: Turkey and the West
by
Stephen F. Szabo
The events of this week have created a perfect storm in Turkey’s relationship with the European Union. The combination of the Pope’s visit to Turkey with the EU Commission’s decision to slow negotiations over Turkey’s membership talks carries the risk of a serious break in Turkey’s relationship with the West.
The Pope’s visit has underlined the great religious and cultural gap between Islam and Christian Europe. In an attempt to make amends for his ill considered remarks about the association of Islam with violence, he seems now to have lent support to Turkey’s bid to enter the EU. However in a qualifying statement later in the day, his spokesman emphasized that the Pope had “ neither the power nor the specific political task” of getting Turkey into the EU, in effect saying that what he thought did not carry any political weight. And when the Pope was still a Cardinal in 2004, he called Turkish entry “ a grave error.” Thus his statements on his current trip will get a skeptical reception from the Turkish public and are unlikely to have much impact on the European debate as well. In many ways, therefore, the Papal visit has highlighted the differences between Europe and Turkey.
At the same time the EU Commission has decided to suspend negotiations on eight of the thirty five chapters of the accession treaty with Turkey over the dispute with Ankara over opening Cypriot ports and flights to Turkey. This step was closer to what such Turkey skeptical countries as France, Austria, the Netherlands and Germany wanted than to the wishes of the more friendly countries such as Britain, Spain and some of the Scandinavian governments. Outgoing British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, said it would be a “serious mistake” to send Turkey a negative message but this is in effect what the Commission did, despite Olli Rehn’s statement that the train will go slower but has not stopped.
Once again the opponents of Turkish entry are hiding behind the Cyprus issue to accomplish their long term goal of blocking Turkish EU membership. They would like to avoid having to make the decision themselves, hoping that the reaction in Turkey will be so negative that the Turkish government will pull out of the talks. The EU has made a mess of the Cyprus issue since its fateful decision to allow the Greek Cypriots in while leaving northern Cyprus out. Now the Greek Cypriots can use their veto position to block any serious attempts by the EU to end the isolation of the north. The other EU states who oppose Turkish membership are only too happy to allow this to occur, thus deflecting their own responsibility to Cyprus.
The position of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is instructive. In supporting the Commission’s action, she stated that it has sent “ a strong signal” to Turkey while the Danish Prime Minister, Fogh Rasmussen, stated that” Turkey has not fulfilled its obligations and therefore there must be consequences.” This comes from governments which have just accepted Bulgaria and Romania into the EU, despite the failure of both to meet a number of key EU criteria for entry, including deep problems of crime and corruption in both of the aspiring member states and serious concerns about their legal systems. In addition these and other states opposing Turkish entry continue to downplay the EU’s failure to fulfill its promises to end the isolation of northern Cyprus.
Europe and Turkey have reached a crisis point in their relationship from which will emerge either a deeper split or a new synthesis. On the Turkish side, the Erdogan government should continue to stand firm on its position regarding Cyprus but should also recognize that the EU cannot solve this problem and that a third party is now, once again, required. The most likely candidate for this role is the Secretary General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan. Mr. Annan has invested a great deal of time and effort in looking for ways to solve the Cyprus problem and he should make one more effort before leaving office to mediate this dispute.
In addition, there are still some signs of hope within the EU itself as reflected in the statements of Blair, Zapatero and others in Riga. Rehn is clearly trying to keep the door open to the extent that he can and the fact that no deadline was set by the Commission for a resolution of the Cyprus dispute underscores some flexibility. In short, the justified negative reaction which is sure to come in Turkey to the Commission’s action should be contained by the long term interest of the country to gain admission to the EU. If this effort does fail, the Turks should not make it easy on their opponents in Europe by doing their work for them.
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Stephen F. Szabo
A professor of European Studies
The School of Advanced International Studies
Johns Hopkins University
12.01.2006
