Cyprus-Forum.com

[BirKibrisli]

I hope you guys don't think this is something positive for a peaceful solution in Cyprus in the near future...
Erdogan is on a win-win situation here. 70% of Turkish voters do not want Turkey to Join the EU. If the talks are suspended Erdogan's popularity will soar,leading to his landslide reelection in November next year. If the talks are just slowed down (the more likely senario) this will suit Erdogan as well for he really does not want to join the EU,but has to pretend he does to keep the Military in check. Turkish voters will still relect him and he will have all the time in the world to slowly dismantle Turkey's secular state,which is what he really wants to do.By the time he is finished Turkey will not meet the criteria to join the EU in any case,and Partition as the status quo will remain the de facto solution for Cyprus.
Is that what we want?

Since Erdogan's approach to Greco-Turkish issues has been more positive than any other Turkish PM's, I consider his possible re-election a good thing. If a slow-down in entry talks can give a boost to him then that's a good thing too, besides it's only going to be temporary, the negotiations will be restored after the elections. I don't know if a second term would be negative for Turkey and her secularism, although I believe Turkey is "too" secular anyway

I agree that we have the best chance of finding a reasonable solution with Erdogan than with anyone else. But still Cyprus is not a priority for him.He'll have to be a Houdini to escape from the wrath of the Military and the pro-secular movement (right wing liberal economists plus some left wingers) and give the kind of concessions necessary for a solution.
I don't see him rushing into it...

[rawk]

Perhaps a nice holiday in cyprus could help him chill?

Rawk

[alexISS]

I agree that we have the best chance of finding a reasonable solution with Erdogan than with anyone else. But still Cyprus is not a priority for him.He'll have to be a Houdini to escape from the wrath of the Military and the pro-secular movement (right wing liberal economists plus some left wingers) and give the kind of concessions necessary for a solution.
I don't see him rushing into it...

Ok, let's be honest, Cyprus would be noone's priority in Turkey if it wasn't for the EU aspirations, even if Erdogan does not rush for a solution, a solution is more probable during his time than anyone else's. Escaping the Military is the reason Erdogan does not rush in my opinion, he gives everybody time to get used to the idea that a concession in the Cyprus problem is ultimately inevitable

[BirKibrisli]

I agree that we have the best chance of finding a reasonable solution with Erdogan than with anyone else. But still Cyprus is not a priority for him.He'll have to be a Houdini to escape from the wrath of the Military and the pro-secular movement (right wing liberal economists plus some left wingers) and give the kind of concessions necessary for a solution.
I don't see him rushing into it...

Ok, let's be honest, Cyprus would be noone's priority in Turkey if it wasn't for the EU aspirations, even if Erdogan does not rush for a solution, a solution is more probable during his time than anyone else's. Escaping the Military is the reason Erdogan does not rush in my opinion, he gives everybody time to get used to the idea that a concession in the Cyprus problem is ultimately inevitable

Erdogan's big test will come in May next year,when he decides to run or not to run for President. He will do his atmost till than to keep the military and most of the voters on side. If he does go for the presidency he has the numbers to be elected.But this might mean a lot of internal tensions withing Turkey,and that could lead to the AKP losing a lot of ground under(most likely) Abdullah Gul. If that happens a CHP (BAykal) and MHP (Bahceli) coalition is on the cards. That can spell disaster for Cyprus,that is if you think the status quo or partition is a disaster!..

[Piratis]

That can spell disaster for Cyprus,that is if you think the status quo or partition is a disaster!..

Something like the Annan plan would be an even bigger disaster that the status quo, and if legalizing partition was up to the Turkish government that would have happened regardless of who is ruling Turkey.

From our point of view we have seen no difference between Erdogan or the ones before him . The occupation is the same as it has been since 1974.

[alexISS]

Erdogan's big test will come in May next year,when he decides to run or not to run for President. He will do his atmost till than to keep the military and most of the voters on side. If he does go for the presidency he has the numbers to be elected.But this might mean a lot of internal tensions withing Turkey,and that could lead to the AKP losing a lot of ground under(most likely) Abdullah Gul. If that happens a CHP (BAykal) and MHP (Bahceli) coalition is on the cards. That can spell disaster for Cyprus,that is if you think the status quo or partition is a disaster!..

And what are Baykal's and Bahceli's positions considering Turkey's EU path?

[reportfromcyprus]

Another one bites the dust

[BirKibrisli]

Erdogan's big test will come in May next year,when he decides to run or not to run for President. He will do his atmost till than to keep the military and most of the voters on side. If he does go for the presidency he has the numbers to be elected.But this might mean a lot of internal tensions withing Turkey,and that could lead to the AKP losing a lot of ground under(most likely) Abdullah Gul. If that happens a CHP (BAykal) and MHP (Bahceli) coalition is on the cards. That can spell disaster for Cyprus,that is if you think the status quo or partition is a disaster!..

And what are Baykal's and Bahceli's positions considering Turkey's EU path?

Well Baykal would be in favour (he is supposed to be cente left but leaning towards nationalism lately),and Bahceli would be luke warm because of his stong nationalist tendencies. Their common ground is their devotion to Kemalism,and as long as the EU does not ask them to dismantle Kemalism they will go along.

[BirKibrisli]

That can spell disaster for Cyprus,that is if you think the status quo or partition is a disaster!..

Something like the Annan plan would be an even bigger disaster that the status quo, and if legalizing partition was up to the Turkish government that would have happened regardless of who is ruling Turkey.

From our point of view we have seen no difference between Erdogan or the ones before him . The occupation is the same as it has been since 1974.

That is because the Military is in charge of the occupation,Piratis.
Erdogan's difference is that he is not coming from a nationalist point of view. His priority is to dismantle the secular state in any way he can.As far as he is concerned the Military can have their way on Cyprus,as long as it keeps them quiet. He would be more flexible on Cyprus,things being equal.

[Piratis]

That is because the Military is in charge of the occupation,Piratis.

Just the occupation? The military is in charge of everything in Turkey.

Erdogan's difference is that he is not coming from a nationalist point of view. His priority is to dismantle the secular state in any way he can.As far as he is concerned the Military can have their way on Cyprus,as long as it keeps them quiet. He would be more flexible on Cyprus,things being equal.

Maybe he would, but we would never know. For Cyprus him or somebody else is the same thing.