Cyprus-Forum.com

[brother]

EU ponders road ahead as Turkish green light set
AFP: 12/14/2004

BRUSSELS, Dec 14 (AFP) - Giving Turkey a green light to start talks on joining the European Union -- as EU leaders are expected to do this week -- begs an obvious question: where does the expanding bloc go from here?

Or, as Turko- and euro-skeptics might have it, could this be the end of the road for the EU?

For Ankara's EU backers, admitting Turkey is a grand strategic imperative, building a political, cultural and economic bridge between East and West amid almost unprecedented global instability in the post-9/11 world.

They argue that, as with the ex-communist countries of central Europe which joined the EU earlier this year, the prospect of membership will lock Turkey onto a path of Westwards-oriented reform.

But for critics, admitting such a huge Muslim nation raises fundamental questions about the entire half-century-old EU project.

"The European constitution currently submitted for ratification was not conceived to welcome in a national power the size of Turkey," said former French president Valery Giscard d'Estaing.

"The inner cohesion of the EU... must not be weighed down," added German opposition leader Angela Merkel, among the most high profile campaigners for a "privileged partnership" for Turkey as opposed to full membership.

Giscard -- who famously believes that Turkey's admission would spell "the end of the EU," was referring to the historic treaty agreed earlier this year. And he should know: he wrote the first draft.

The EU constitution was finally agreed in June, after intense haggling over delicately-poised voting rights. It aims to provide the institutional architecture for a bloc which expanded from 15 to 25 members in May.

The trouble is, Turkey's accession could put a bulldozer through those fragile arrangements: overnight Turkey could become the biggest EU member state by population as its population is expanding.

"By its membership, Turkey will get as much influence as Germany or even more," said Danish Euroskeptic EU lawmaker Jens-Peter Bonde in a recent speech. "Few Europeans are prepared to offer this influence to Turkey."

Turkey's backers underline that the expected EU thumbs-up is only the start of a long process. Turkey is not expected to join the EU for at least a decade. The EU will have plenty of time to update its decision-making machinery.

But there is no doubt that the Turkey question only adds to clouds which have already been looming over the EU's future.

Many of those clouds have crystalized around the new EU constitution: euroskeptic parties exploited widespread fears of a federal EU superstate to make record gains in June EU-wide elections.

In the corridors of Brussels talk of "the limits of EU enlargement" and options of a two-speed Europe, have multiplied. Some argue that the EU, born 47 years ago with just six founding members, is close to breaking point.

And that breaking point could come as early as next year: specifically when about a dozen EU states vote in referendums on the new constitution.

In theory a "no" vote from any one member is enough to scupper the entire agreement. In practice it would depend on which country or countries voted against. The smaller the country, the easier a solution could be found.

But one country is watching the situation particularly closely: French authorities are so concerned about a negative impact from the Turkish issue on an expected referendum in the first half of 2005 that they have pushed for the start of Ankara's EU talks to be delayed.

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier gave ground on that call Monday, saying the Turkish talks should start no earlier than next July.

According to a new poll Monday, 67 percent of French people are against Turkey's EU entry. French leaders will be hoping that their voters can distinguish clearly between Turkey and the constitution.

[brother]

After long wait, EU decision at hand for Turkey
AFP: 12/15/2004

BRUSSELS, Dec 15 (AFP) - Turkey will soon learn if its long-running campaign to enter the European Union is reaching fruition as EU leaders prepare to resolve one of the most divisive issues facing the bloc.

When they convene Thursday evening for the EU's winter summit, the 25 heads of government are expected to give the green light that Turkey has long sought for the opening of accession negotiations.

But diplomats say the leaders will likely defer the actual start of the talks until the autumn of 2005, and their approval will come hedged with a raft of caveats unprecedented for an EU candidate state.

And last-minute objections that might stymie Turkey's hopes cannot be ruled out. Cyprus is one obstacle.

As the price for its accord, the internationally backed Greek-Cypriot government wants Turkey to move on normalising relations frozen since Turkish troops occupied the Mediterranean island's northern third in 1974.

France, though nominally on Turkey's side, has fuelled Turkish frustration by using the word "genocide" for the first time to describe the 1915-1917 Ottoman Empire massacre of Armenians.

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier told parliament Tuesday that Paris would ask many questions, "notably that of the Armenian genocide", in eventual EU-Turkey negotiations.

It is French pressure above all that is likely to result in the EU failing to abide by a promise to launch accession talks with Turkey "without delay" once the leaders give their approval.

Fearful of the Turkey question overshadowing a referendum on the EU's first constitution, the French government wants the launch of the negotiations put back to the second half of next year.

The French government's fears are not without foundation given that in France, as in Germany, public opinion is largely hostile to Turkey's EU bid.

With an eye on winning their publics over, the EU leaders are expected to impose a series of stringent conditions on Turkey and warn that the accession talks will last a decade at least, with no guarantee of success.

Turkey, which physically spans the Bosphorus divide between Europe and Asia, has been knocking on the European bloc's door for more than four decades, first signing an association agreement with the then-EEC in 1963.

Its big breakthrough came two years ago, when the EU agreed -- at the same time as agreeing to let in 10 states in the bloc's biggest-ever expansion -- to decide in December 2004 on whether to start talks with Turkey.

Now that moment has come, and the arguments are, if anything, stormier than ever.

The most pro-Turkey EU states -- including Britain, Italy, Spain and Germany -- argue that admitting Turkey is a strategic priority as a bridge to the Muslim world.

But there is a hardcore of sceptics including Austria, Denmark and Cyprus. They argue that Turkey is simply too big, too different and too poor to join. The alternative proposed is a "special partnership" rather than membership.

But Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who will be in Brussels for the summit, has insisted time and again that the EU must treat Turkey like any other candidate.

He said Tuesday his government had met all the criteria required to begin accession talks through major democratic and human rights reforms adopted over the past two years, and now expects the EU to do its part.

"I believe the EU will not undersign a historic mistake which will weaken its own foundations and will make a decision in line with Turkey's expectations," Erdogan said.