Cyprus-Forum.com

[Viewpoint]

Even if Turkey abandons (or is forced to abandon) it's European path, the need for good relations with the EU will remain. Not recognizing an EU state will be similar to not recognizing a US state, it could lead to the termination of Turkish-EU relations, which in my opinion is even worse than a non EU-member Turkey

Do you think that the cuurent economic ties will be severed which is to the benefit of all concerned, then you are beig naive the only thing that will change is that you will have a disinterested Turkey on your hands with no leverage to make them do what you want.

If you do not see it has a major set back then go ahead at the next EU meeting and veto them out, if you have the balls of course but the consequences will be on your own heads.

You continue the same mentality of those enosis dreamers with no flexiblity for compromise, all or nothing tactics will not pay and is not the Eu way they will find middle ground and Turkey will continue on her path like all other nations before her.

[Pyrpolizer]

The economical impact and Turkey after EU exit do not really concern you, (although your comments show you wish them off the face of the earth) Turkey is a resilent country she will get through it but you should be more concerned, if you really want reunifcation because that hope will be lost forever.

They will not only be economical in my opinion, but geo-strategic mostly. They concern me to the extend of predicting what kind of leverages I could have in such a case. Anyway this belongs to the future, the situation will clarify by the end of the year. Besides my predictions are just personal, there’s no point for me putting them down in detail for discussion..
The point for us at present is if we do not use our EU leverage NOW we lose it for ever.
If Turkey walks out of the EU permanently then we also lose our EU leverage.
So with these 2 scenarios we lose anyway at least for the near future.

If Turkey oblidges to the EU then we earn something. I say something because you all seem to over etsimate the importance of Turkey opening her ports and airports to RoC. For your information those ports and Airports were opened until 1987 i.e 4 years after declaration of "trnc". What was the impact on Cyprus issue? None!

It will just be a tiny step forward. Imo the only real step forward is settlement of this issue with the return of Varoshia and direct trade through Famagusta port for the TCs.


Observer,

I am tired of newbies dropping in the forum and starting the discussions all over again from the very beggining. Do some reading in the forum before posting.

[alexISS]

Even if Turkey abandons (or is forced to abandon) it's European path, the need for good relations with the EU will remain. Not recognizing an EU state will be similar to not recognizing a US state, it could lead to the termination of Turkish-EU relations, which in my opinion is even worse than a non EU-member Turkey

Do you think that the cuurent economic ties will be severed which is to the benefit of all concerned, then you are beig naive the only thing that will change is that you will have a disinterested Turkey on your hands with no leverage to make them do what you want.

If you do not see it has a major set back then go ahead at the next EU meeting and veto them out, if you have the balls of course but the consequences will be on your own heads.

You continue the same mentality of those enosis dreamers with no flexiblity for compromise, all or nothing tactics will not pay and is not the Eu way they will find middle ground and Turkey will continue on her path like all other nations before her.

What's wrong with you Viewpoint? What enosis mentality and naivete are you talking about? All I said is that Turkey will not want it's diplomatic and economic relations with the EU suspended, does this really sound naive to you?? Of course a "train crash" will be a setback, did I say otherwise? And be sure that Cyprus or Greece will be the last to cause that "train crash", most probably it will be caused by Turkey's diplomatic incapacity. I still cannot believe that Turkey's PM stated publicly that Cyprus is to small to stand in the way of Turkey, imagine what people in Malta or Luxemburg think about Turkey now...

[Viewpoint]

The economical impact and Turkey after EU exit do not really concern you, (although your comments show you wish them off the face of the earth) Turkey is a resilent country she will get through it but you should be more concerned, if you really want reunifcation because that hope will be lost forever.

They will not only be economical in my opinion, but geo-strategic mostly. They concern me to the extend of predicting what kind of leverages I could have in such a case. Anyway this belongs to the future, the situation will clarify by the end of the year. Besides my predictions are just personal, there’s no point for me putting them down in detail for discussion..
The point for us at present is if we do not use our EU leverage NOW we lose it for ever.
If Turkey walks out of the EU permanently then we also lose our EU leverage.
So with these 2 scenarios we lose anyway at least for the near future.

If Turkey oblidges to the EU then we earn something. I say something because you all seem to over etsimate the importance of Turkey opening her ports and airports to RoC. For your information those ports and Airports were opened until 1987 i.e 4 years after declaration of "trnc". What was the impact on Cyprus issue? None!

It will just be a tiny step forward. Imo the only real step forward is settlement of this issue with the return of Varoshia and direct trade through Famagusta port for the TCs.


Observer,

I am tired of newbies dropping in the forum and starting the discussions all over again from the very beggining. Do some reading in the forum before posting.

The EU way is to find some middle ground that will benefit boths sides, a win win situation as they say.

The big problem Turkey faces if she opens any of her ports, is, does this mean recognition? and how does she stand with regards to having her army on EU soil or the fact that she recognizes the TRNC. These are all very important issues which in effect will have a chain reaction if she opens ports. Lets see what the Finnish effort will come up with.

[Viewpoint]

alexISS

What's wrong with you Viewpoint?

Nothing

What enosis mentality and naivete are you talking about?

I apologise I may have come on a bit to strong.

All I said is that Turkey will not want it's diplomatic and economic relations with the EU suspended, does this really sound naive to you??

Unfotunately yes it does as it is economic benefit that drives international relations and both sides are benefiting so why should they even consider taking a step backwards (punishment?) if they decide not to go forwards?

Of course a "train crash" will be a setback, did I say otherwise? And be sure that Cyprus or Greece will be the last to cause that "train crash", most probably it will be caused by Turkey's diplomatic incapacity.

Greece no I dont believe they would I am very impressed with Greeces improved relations with Turkey they still have a lot of work to do but they are clever in that they know exactly which side their bread it buttered and I dont believe they would want to ruin their improving relations with Turkey just because you guys demanded them to.

The Gc south is different kettle of fish, no knowing what they will and wont do.

Turkey can fight her corner dont worry you only get half the story they have more allies in the EU than enemies.

I still cannot believe that Turkey's PM stated publicly that Cyprus is to small to stand in the way of Turkey, imagine what people in Malta or Luxemburg think about Turkey now...

Cant comment dont know what context it was said in.

[Pyrpolizer]

The EU way is to find some middle ground that will benefit boths sides, a win win situation as they say.

Perhaps. Although I really fail to see what that would be. Any ideas?

The big problem Turkey faces if she opens any of her ports, is, does this mean recognition? and how does she stand with regards to having her army on EU soil or the fact that she recognizes the TRNC. These are all very important issues which in effect will have a chain reaction if she opens ports.

RoC will propagandise it means recognition, Turkey will popagandise it does not (it is simply GC administration), and so on, and so on, and so on. Silly political games, not impressing me one bit. One thing is certain, Turkey will not de-recognise the occupied. As long as she was let in the EU with her army on EU soil, that issue can only be raised at the final stages of her EU road.

The result of this? We will get flooded here with Turkish products, whereas the only ones who will really gain are the multinationals who registered their ships under Cyprus flag, the GC lawyers who handle their legal matters and the GC auditors who keep their books. Nothing substantial towards solution, no profit for the average GC. In fact the average GC and especially the producers and farmers will have financial loss.

The real leverage for RoC against Turkey is yet to come after Turkey has moved half way towards EU. Unfortunately for RoC if she misses this first leverage, she will miss all subsequent ones, so she cannot yield, it’s absolutely impossible.

I believe all politicians in Turkey including Erdogan know very well these issues, on the other hand they have a problem with the fanatics there as well as the nationalists and the Turkish militants. I don’t know how they will handle the situation, blind moves from their end would be a fatal error for everybody.

The Varoshia issue on the other hand will provide them breathing space for a long long time and will most certainly boost the solution to record high speeds-I am absolutely sure about this.

[Viewpoint]

Pyrpolizer read this, it apears to be some form of middle ground,

http://www.cyprus-mail.com/news/main.php

RoC will propagandise it means recognition, Turkey will popagandise it does not (it is simply GC administration), and so on, and so on, and so on. Silly political games, not impressing me one bit.

I agree..

One thing is certain, Turkey will not de-recognise the occupied. As long as she was let in the EU with her army on EU soil, that issue can only be raised at the final stages of her EU road.

But if the world views it as recognition then it will be with the soverignty of the whole island where does that the TRNC? unrecognized imo. This is to dangerous a game for take to take any risks.

The real leverage for RoC against Turkey is yet to come after Turkey has moved half way towards EU. Unfortunately for RoC if she misses this first leverage, she will miss all subsequent ones, so she cannot yield, it’s absolutely impossible.

I agree that the GC souths leverage will be much stronger in the latter part of the EU accession process, so trying to use a veto or leverage from the outset will diminish the effect/weight of using it further down the line when Turkey is more and more committed to EU entry.

I personally dont feel your leader will use any veto hes bluffing he is old school Akritas minded, he will wait for Turkey to get deeper and deeper into the well and then pull the rope on her.

[Mickleham]

Pyrpolizer read this, it apears to be some form of middle ground,

http://www.cyprus-mail.com/news/main.php

RoC will propagandise it means recognition, Turkey will popagandise it does not (it is simply GC administration), and so on, and so on, and so on. Silly political games, not impressing me one bit.

I agree..

One thing is certain, Turkey will not de-recognise the occupied. As long as she was let in the EU with her army on EU soil, that issue can only be raised at the final stages of her EU road.

But if the world views it as recognition then it will be with the soverignty of the whole island where does that the TRNC? unrecognized imo. This is to dangerous a game for take to take any risks.

The real leverage for RoC against Turkey is yet to come after Turkey has moved half way towards EU. Unfortunately for RoC if she misses this first leverage, she will miss all subsequent ones, so she cannot yield, it’s absolutely impossible.

I agree that the GC souths leverage will be much stronger in the latter part of the EU accession process, so trying to use a veto or leverage from the outset will diminish the effect/weight of using it further down the line when Turkey is more and more committed to EU entry.

I personally dont feel your leader will use any veto hes bluffing he is old school Akritas minded, he will wait for Turkey to get deeper and deeper into the well and then pull the rope on her.

Not the Turks...

But the Turkish Governement knows very very well, that they will have to abide by what they have undertaken to do this year!

Well irrespective to what games are currently playing i am certain that the Turkish government will adhere to the agreements the have sign in 2005.

I am sure 100% they will comply to everything in an about face gesture.!

[rolo]

hmmmmm

youre probably right, but i wouldn't put my money on it.

i get the feeling the Turkish puplic after all this time and especially in light of Rumania and Bulgaria are longer that keen on their Eu application.

Then again it'll probably come down to whether or not it profits the industries pulling the strings of each Eu country. The rest of it is merely cosmetic.

[Pyrpolizer]

http://www.cyprus-mail.com/news/main.php

Thanks.

But if the world views it as recognition then it will be with the soverignty of the whole island where does that the TRNC? unrecognized imo. This is to dangerous a game for take to take any risks.

The status of "trnc" will remain unaltered i.e unrecognised, the status of RoC will remain unaltered i.e recognised to include all geographical area of Cyprus but with Aquis suspended at the occupied, etc etc etc. Nothing will change.I personally don’t see any pluses or minuses for anybody in this. Besides Turkey needs Cyprus’s vote for each and every step in her EU road. In this respect she must take a Cyprus Embassy, have Cypriot specialists on the chapters she discusses to check and approve her progress etc etc. Cyprus cannot give her vote with blind eye, nobody can, it is like ridiculing herself. Didn’t Turkey think of all these before signing her agreement, is she totally absolutely paranoid??

I agree that the GC souths leverage will be much stronger in the latter part of the EU accession process, so trying to use a veto or leverage from the outset will diminish the effect/weight of using it further down the line when Turkey is more and more committed to EU entry.

Yes we agree on the first part but I never concluded that the RoC should forget about a veto now and excercise it later. In fact this is what I said earlier:
The point for us at present is if we do not use our EU leverage NOW we lose it for ever.
The reason for this, there would be no excuse for us to excercise the 2nd veto in a row when in fact we did not excercise the first. And absolutely no excuse to excercise the 3rd veto if we have not excercised #1 and #2. And so on and so forth.I hope you see the logic.

I personally dont feel your leader will use any veto hes bluffing he is old school Akritas minded, he will wait for Turkey to get deeper and deeper into the well and then pull the rope on her.

I don’t think Hn Mr Papadopoulos is bluffing. All his public statements regarding this matter as well as the public statements of the Minister for foreign affairs leave absolutely no doubt he means it and he would accept nothing less. He is a person who can accept tons of pressure without yielding and his stance on Anan Plan proved.

By the way there is no real veto invlolved. Simply RoC will object the opening or closing of any chapter for Turkey. This will just mean stagnation, Turkey will still be inside her EU road, having a break for a sandwitch and a coke.Theoretically she is still in.