Cyprus-Forum.com

[sadik]

I would like to drow your attention to the latest developments related to Cypriot politics

* In the north, 4 MPs resigned from the nationalist UBP and DP parties in order to form a new party that will be coalition partners with the left wing CTP. It's speculated that this move was encouraged by the Erdogan's AKP in order to get rid of Denktas, Jr. from the government. It's the first time in the last 40 years that there is no Denktas left in power.
* TC Prime Minister Soyer said that they were mainly doing this to be able to work for a solution of the Cyprus problem.
* Ali Babacan, the Turkish miniter responsible for the Turkey-EU negotiations said that the "desired" developments regarding the issue of Cyprus would take place soon.
* And all of a sudden the following Papadopoulos statement : "We are trying to avert any kind of crisis because I believe the general impression in Europe is that it would be a bad development if Turkey's negotiations course faced insuperable difficulties," Papadopoulos told reporters before departing for an Asia-Europe summit in Helsinki.

All this is giving me the impression that Turkey is preparing for some new developments regarding Cyprus. Timing of the changes in the TC government is very interesting. It's obvious that if Turkey is planning for some concessions, namely opening of the ports to the GC ships and planes, the last thing they would need would be nationalist rhetoric and objections coming from the TC government, which could greatly influence the general public in Turkey.

What do you think is happening/will happen regarding the Turkish EU negotiations, opening of the ports and the Cyprus Problem?

[Kozza]

Thanks for the update Sadik. That piece certainly wasn't on tonight's Fox 11 News!

[boomerang]

there is definetely something in the pipeworks...It might explain the reshuffle in the North....

Babacan seeks at least partial Cyprus solution by year-end
Tuesday, September 12, 2006

ANKARA - Turkish Daily News

State Minister Ali Babacan, Turkey's chief negotiator for EU talks, yesterday hinted at the government's determination to avert a looming crisis between Turkey and the European Union over the deep-seated Cyprus problem, expressing hope for reaching “either a partial or a temporary solution” to the issue by the end of the year.

Turkey is under pressure from the European Union to open up its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic by the end of 2006 under a customs union protocol, but Ankara refuses to do so unless sanctions imposed on the Turkish Cypriots are eased.

Delivering a speech yesterday in Istanbul at an Eisenhower Fellowships conference aimed at building networks for change in Europe and the Middle East, Babacan reiterated Turkey's position on the issue, saying that Turkey has always been the party who has sought a positive resolution.

While leaving the conference following his speech, Babacan was invited by reporters to elaborate on his remark during the speech about finding “either a temporary or a permanent solution to the Cyprus issue by the end of the year.”

“We hope for a partial or a temporary solution to exist. I cited the importance of finding a partial or temporary way out before the end of the year in order to prevent the Cyprus issue from slowing or blocking the flow of our [EU] negotiations,” he was quoted as saying by the Anatolia news agency.

Babacan made it clear that this didn't spell a change in Turkey's “sine qua non” on the Cyprus issue.

“We have our sine qua non, which we announced earlier. We are open to evaluating all kinds of technical studies and any alternatives presented to us, except the sine qua non,” he said, warning that Turkey would not accept just any offer thrown its way.

Last week, Babacan said after a meeting with EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn in Brussels that Turkey was still ready to discuss any possible solution to prevent a crisis over the Cyprus issue. “We don't say ‘no' to any alternatives, but their details should be discussed. This, of course, takes time,” he said when asked about news reports that the European Commission was planning to take the ports issue to the European Court of Justice.

“Technical studies on different alternatives are being carried out. Decisions will be made after these [studies] are raised at the political level. There might be different approaches. We appreciate the efforts of the EU Commission and the United Nations in that regard,” he said.

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/arti ... wsid=53882

PS...I posted the whole article, because I read some comments before that GC were blocked from reading the newspaper...

[cypezokyli]

ehm, isnt turkey going through an election process ?

[Pyrpolizer]

Hi Sadik,

I believe the TC members of the forum are better suited to explain us how things will develop. Me as a GC all I can say is I really doubt the opening of ports/airports will have any effect on Cyprus problem. Correct me if I am wrong but I think Turkey actually held her ports open to RoC ships and planes until 1987 i.e 4 years after the declaration of "trnc" !!!!

Unless the whole matter is linked with some sort of deal reagarding Varoshia, I think nothing will change.

[cypezokyli]

the opening of the ports has only a symbolic meaning. if we ever get it we will vote for papadoupoulos till we die or till he dies, or whichever from the two comes first, reagrdless of a solution or not.

if the ports open we will believe that turkey recognized the RoC, and turkey will believe it didnt. moreover turkey is highly unlikely to open the ports (sth that she should) without any reward. in short most probably they will find a way to receive a reward for something that it is their obligation.

the other thing, that is in no way certain, that we will ba able to use that as a legal tool to change some negative things on the AP. so many legal tools we had, were simply forgotten and i dont see why the next plan (if it ever comes) will necessarily take into consideration that development (maybe it should but allow me to have my doubts).

and above all, opening of the ports will not bring a solution to the cyppro.

on the other hand some people believe that if we really push turkey on this symbolic matter, they will realise that we can really cause problem to them, and that will bring them in the negotiating table. this scenario impliicitly assumes so many things that i cannot see how it can become a reality.


.....
but who knows. the inability of the three parties in power to share the pie, might bring internal changes in the south just like it happened in the north. (think about it , in every coalition up to now two parties were not able to share the pie, how would it ever be possible for three parties to do that )

[sadik]

Hi Sadik,

I believe the TC members of the forum are better suited to explain us how things will develop. Me as a GC all I can say is I really doubt the opening of ports/airports will have any effect on Cyprus problem. Correct me if I am wrong but I think Turkey actually held her ports open to RoC ships and planes until 1987 i.e 4 years after the declaration of "trnc" !!!!

Unless the whole matter is linked with some sort of deal reagarding Varoshia, I think nothing will change.

I think they eventually will open the ports. Forcing to opening of the ports is a strategy developed by the GCs to eventually force Turkey to officially recognized the GC controlled RoC. Is that likely to happen or if that happens, is Turkey going to say, "sorry for occupying you, bye!' ?. You better ask Papadopoulos. In any case, for every concession Turkey makes, they will receive something in return.

In the end, everything is strongly tied to the EU accession process. What I know is that if Turkey becomes an EU member, they will care very little about Cyprus. We'll just need 20 or so more years of life span to see the results

[reportfromcyprus]

I would like to drow your attention to the latest developments related to Cypriot politics

* In the north, 4 MPs resigned from the nationalist UBP and DP parties in order to form a new party that will be coalition partners with the left wing CTP. It's speculated that this move was encouraged by the Erdogan's AKP in order to get rid of Denktas, Jr. from the government. It's the first time in the last 40 years that there is no Denktas left in power.
* TC Prime Minister Soyer said that they were mainly doing this to be able to work for a solution of the Cyprus problem.
* Ali Babacan, the Turkish miniter responsible for the Turkey-EU negotiations said that the "desired" developments regarding the issue of Cyprus would take place soon.
* And all of a sudden the following Papadopoulos statement : "We are trying to avert any kind of crisis because I believe the general impression in Europe is that it would be a bad development if Turkey's negotiations course faced insuperable difficulties," Papadopoulos told reporters before departing for an Asia-Europe summit in Helsinki.

All this is giving me the impression that Turkey is preparing for some new developments regarding Cyprus. Timing of the changes in the TC government is very interesting. It's obvious that if Turkey is planning for some concessions, namely opening of the ports to the GC ships and planes, the last thing they would need would be nationalist rhetoric and objections coming from the TC government, which could greatly influence the general public in Turkey.

What do you think is happening/will happen regarding the Turkish EU negotiations, opening of the ports and the Cyprus Problem?

Add to that - Talat was given a package of proposals for technical committees by Moller for evaluation.

My analysis? Turkey's recognition of the Cyprus government may happen, but it will be a qualified recognition; ie. there'd have to be assurances of a power-sharing agreement first between the government and Turkish Cypriot politicians.