Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz]

Are you trying to tell us that your grandpa was an extraterrestrial by any chance?

No I was not trying to tell you that, but it could exlpain quite a lot

[turkcyp]

Dear MicAtCyp,

I asked you to give me the link to the UN OECD etc that you yourself said you referred to - you never did.Now you come back and asking me why I don't trust the RoC official statistics? In the end are you referring to the official RoC statistics, or to the statistics some UN took from the RoC and after mixing them with those of the occupied areas formed his overall statistics for CYPRUS, or to something else?

I have obtained that one person from UN’s (http://hdr.undp.org/reports/global/2002/en/) if you go to Cyprus under that website and find the information about demographics you can find the same information..

Furthermore that population growth rate is also verified by the documents which are posted by Insan. In those documents I remember reading at one point saying that population growth rate in Cyprus after 74 was 1.3%.

Finally the above UN document expect Cyrus population growth to be annualized 0.7% in the next 15 years. Now I am sure UN get their figures from RoC government, or some other type of credible source. This is why I said why don’t you trust your own government’s figures.

It seems to me you cannot deal with maths concerning propabilities. Yes you can conclude the minimum is 41K but the propability of that minimum being the actual number is ZERO.

Trust me I can deal with math much better than you can even imagine. From those two points you have given me the only absolute thing you can say is that minimum of 41k.

I have never said probability of being 41k is to high. In all my posts you can specifically see that I try to calculate extreme scenarios (by making some sound assumptions) and and try to estimate in the middle.

Without the knowledge of what kind probability distribution this data presents, the best guess you can come up with is something you will call in statistics median of the distribution. (%50 percent on each side). From the data you can not even guess the mean of the distribution and you are talking about probabilities.

So that is why my estimate of settlers was ranging between 45-60k. My worst case scenario was about 80k settler.

As I have always said. It is very simple math actually with assumptions explained. And as I have said before you can try to poke holes in assumptions and I am willing to listen.

So in any future plan (Annan 6 or anything else) I simply would totally agree with you if you say those legal and illegal workers who do not carry TRNC citizenship should not be counted as settler, I would totally agree with you.

Careful! This is not what the Anan Plan says.The Anan plan considers everyone who is not a decendent of a TC or a spouce-irrespective of whether he has a so called "citizenship" as a settler.The problem with the Anan Plan is not the definition of who is a settler. The problem is that it effectively allows every settler to stay!

I am not talking about exiting Annan plan. Critical word being future.

No, there are more assumptions here. That the population increase at the free areas is due to the increase of the numbers of the GCs! Which is far away from the truth.We have about 40K Europeans, 100K legal workers, another 100K (?) illegal, plus about 70K Pontians who hold Greek passports. Plus a lot of foreign spouces. One out of four who studies abroad comes back with a foreign spouce! None of those (except the spouces) ever got a citizenship though.So population is one thing, citizenship is another.
In the occupied areas however population and citizenship is the same thing as far as settlers are concerened.

It seems to me that you are confusing the terms. Whenever I am talking about populatin growth I am only talking about citizen population growth. And I am almost positively sure that those figures also are talking about citizenship, not everybody that leaves on that island.

For instance when I have said in 2001, 210k was the north’s population I meant to say that it is the TRNC citizenship holders. (At least that is what I understand when I read official statistics be it TRNC, RoC, USA, etc. etc. I do not know how actually TRNC, RoC, USA or any country do their population statistics but I always assume that they are talking about citizens. Ok, then you can count this as third assumption. “Whenever I talk about country population statistics, I assume those statistics imply citizens, not actually who resides on the island.)

Have a good day,

[mehmet]

I still think this issue of 'settlers' is an obsession which can get in the way of solving problem. I say let them stay if they are settled for all this time, they can take the place of those of us who had to emigrate in the past. At the end of the day we will still make up a minority of Cyprus, it seems that some want the minority to beocme even smaller. I don't swallow this bollocks that Cypriots all over the world are going to return after solution. Some will, many have made a new life and will be happy just to visit on holidays and to see a united Cyprus in their lifetimes.

[brother]

I say with turkey heading fast into the E.U these settlers will have the right to live in cyprus anyway.