Cyprus-Forum.com

[turkcyp]

deleted by the author...

[brother]

I wouldn't have put it so harshly but that does almost sum it up.

[-mikkie2-]

No matter what you say turkcyp, Turkey has a problem.

Non recognition means no negotiations, even if Turkey gets a start date on the 17th.

Therefore, the only course that Turkey has is to come to a solution before these negotiations begin.

The Turkish tactic is to implement the Annan plan unilaterally and step by step in exchange for certain 'favours'. This will begin when Turgey gets the green (or will it be amber) light on the 17th.

However, that presupposes that Cyprus will play ball. The Turkish strategy will fail if Cyprus vetos on the 17th. Turkey will have two choices. To abandon EU membership there and then, or if she genuinely wants to pursue EU membership, to start negotiations immediately for a solution, and then move forward after that.

If Cyprus doesn't exercise the veto, Turkey will most probably get a start date late in 2005. This is in order to allow for another attempt to start negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem. I suspect that again the Turks will play for time and try to implement certain provisions of the plan such as handing back Varosha. This will lead to another confrontation in late 2005 as recognition will still not be forthcoming, thus forcing the hand of Turkey. The fact is, Cyprus will be on the negotiating table and will be making her demands. What can Turkey do in that situation?

I cannot see how the Turks can get out of this one. There is still the pending case of Loizidou that needs to be cleared up. Cyprus will obvioulsy demand that Turkey uphold the decision of the ECHR. What can Turkey do? Part of the negotiation process means Turkey must respect the judgements of this court.

So, yes, I agree that Turkey will never recognise the RoC, but that means Turkey then has to come up with a way out and that means getting back round the negotiating table.

In conclusion, Turkey lost the game in Copenhagen in 2002 when Cyprus was not yet a member of the EU. Had Turkey accepted the Anan plan then, and with Clerides at the helm, then perhaps the Cyprus problem would have been solved! So far from pointing fingers and blame on Cyprus, perhaps you should be laying the blame closer to home!

[insan]

-mikkie2-


After the referanda of UN plan, Turkish side continually repeated that the next initiative must be taken by Greek side... A few days ago A. Gul made an open invitation to Greek side. He said that: "If GC administration, officially inform all relevant parties(UN, Turkey, Greece, UK and TC administration) regarding what concrete modifications they demand on basis of the Anan Plan, without touching its philosophy; we evaluate it and do what we are able to do... We keep our solution vision and we are ready to do our best in order to reach a just, viable solution for Cyprus problem..."


So, I wonder what does T-Pap wait for? If the alternate Anan Plan of T-Pap is ready, he should send it to all relevant parties immediately inorder to keep the negotiation process alive ... Turkis authorities clearly emphasized that they wouldn't recognize RoC in political terms as legitimate government of the whole Cyprus...


What is T-Pap's and his supporters expectations(dreams) from Turkey to do...?

[-mikkie2-]

Insan,

The game over Cyprus has changed when Cyprus joined the EU. Turkey can no longer make demands of the EU regarding Cyprus, because from the 17th it is Turkey that is being judged, not the EU. And part of the collective decisions to be taken on Turkey will require approval of Cyprus.

It is inconceivable to my mind that the EU disregard the viewpoint of Cyprus, which is what Turkey wants the EU to do. To my mind, Gul can say whatever he likes, but at the end of the day he knows that he needs the support of Cyprus in order to progress.

Since the referenda, people were predicting doom and gloom for Cyprus. Well, even though things have been difficult, I certainly don't think that they are anywhere near as bad as people seem to think. For example, the green line regulation is slowly making inroads into trade. The EU is now allowing more goods to pass through and even the TC chamber of commerce is welcoming the new move. Before it was doing its best to undermine the regulation. More and more tourists are coming to the north via the south. Economically the north is benefitting from this. And all without direct flights or direct trade. Unfortunately, you will probably witness a capital flight from the north as well, because many of the businessmen that operate in the north are Turks, not TC's. As soon as they make money, it most probably leaves the country.

In the EU, the EP has passed a motion asking Turkey to make a timetable of withdrawl of Turkish troops from Cyprus, EU representatives are clearly stating to Ankara that non recognition of Cyprus will mean negotiations will not start. What if Cyprus then requests to open an embassy in Turkey? It would be a reasonable demand, becasue how can Cyprus monitor the progress of Turkey and make judgments at the negotiations if it does not have a presence in the country?

The Turks are hiding behind the 'yes' of the TC's. The Turkish strategy at the referendum was to get a yes/no result. Well, they got their wish but that only bought them time before the inevitable happens.

So, I wonder where the pressure is now being put? It is obvious that Turkey is the one under presure. The question is, when will they break under it?

So, again, I would say that Tassos has played the game well over the past 7 months. The expectation of Papadopoulos I think is for Turkey to be more conciliatory towards the GC's. You have to admit that the Turkish rhetoric is always confrontational, even when it is dealing with the EU. Unfortunately that kind of attitude does not go down well in European circles. I think it is obvious what Papadopoulos wants changed in the Annan plan and I am sure he has been telling all these foreign politicians what he is looking for.

[-mikkie2-]

It seems my predictions have been correct, having just read the headlines.

So, Gul wants a solution before recognition and before the start of negotiations. Solution doesn't even have to be based on Annan plan he says. Of course he still dreams of a 'yes' to the Anan plan without modification, but lets face it, that just won't happen.

Papadopoulos has indeed done well.

Now things will start to get interesting....

[brother]

yES TASSOS HAS BEEN TELLING THEM OF HIS DIVISION PLANS, NOT REUNIFICATION LIKE WE ALL DREAM ABOUT, he is a bad man.

[-mikkie2-]

Brother,

Why do you come to that conclusion?

What has been happening in the past few months has been to pressure Turkey to negotiate by NECESSITY, meaning that she will be more willing to compromise and be more conciliatory. This is the change of stance that we have been waiting for for 30 years. It was obvious that Turkey would never yield if she was not put under any significant pressure. Now she is, the game has changed, its time for a solution. It may be much better than we all think, so my advice is to stay positive.

[metecyp]

So, Gul wants a solution before recognition and before the start of negotiations. Solution doesn't even have to be based on Annan plan he says. Of course he still dreams of a 'yes' to the Anan plan without modification, but lets face it, that just won't happen.

And where did Gul say that again? It's still too early to call victory for T-Pap. Let's wait for December 17th and see what happens.

[-mikkie2-]

Metecyp,

Gul made these statements in a television interview with Mehmet Ali Birand last night.

From the sound of it, I think the ball will start to roll again very soon.