Cyprus-Forum.com

[Piratis]

Can any GC on this forum state that they accept that the TC community SHOULD have a RIGHT to a status greater than that of just a minority and that such recognition is fair and just? I am beginning to wonder.

I would put it otherwise: Minority rights can be expanded to be more fair in order to give all citizens equal opportunities. For example Turkish speaking citizens would be disadvantaged if they could not read official documents in thier own language.

I have absolutely no problem if the state spends money and takes actions to ensure that a Turkish Cypriot citizen is equal to another Cypriot citizen. This is the way it should be!

If the term "minority" is some kind of taboo for you, then we will not use it. No problem. If on the other hand the term "democracy" is taboo, or you want to invent some kind of pseudo-democracy where the main principle of democracy is scrubbed, then we do have a major problem.

Turkish Cypriots are 18%. A president is elected with 51-53% now. The 18% of TCs is a power that everybody would want to build bridges with and form alliances. Do you know that Papadopoulos party has a power of around 18%? Do you know that Papadopoulos party had the president of Cyprus for more time than any other party?

A constitution that will guarantee the uniqueness of TCs (language, culture, religion) along with democracy and full respect to human rights is the only thing that can guarantee a better life for all Cypriots.

[insan]

Yiassou Insan,
What are trying to say, above? Please be more direct, because I am loosing....one more time!

Yâsu Pantelis;

I think it's very clear what've tried to telll...

As you very well know, all your fears, of the future, in a truly United Cyprus of equal citizens, already came true, over the 30 years of the separation.

Not exactly the same... Denktash and his Co. together with Makarios and his successors Co. have more resposibility than Turkey which had bigger problems than Cyprus to deal with in last 30 years... In Turkey, 56 governments have been formed in 55 years... Turkey wasted her most valuable times with internal political strives...

Do you deny that the level of corruption and discrimination is greater in Turkey(mainland) than in the occupied part of Cyprus?

Correct...

Is the trade embargo, the biggest problem of the Turkish Cypriots or is it the fact that they got too close the Turkish kind of life and governance?

Perhaps both... I haven't examined this issue yet....

If not, can you please list and rank the problems in the occupied part of Cyprus and then compare them with a similar list of Turkey's problems. Who are better off, the Turks or the TCs?

If you compare the problems according to population/percentage perhaps the result will be the same... I have no idea at the moment...

Where is the influx of population?

To all around the world...

In all democratic free market economies, the Rich, are always better off. Their wealth gives them head start and advantages over the poor. The portion of the people in the middle (middle class) is what matters and measures the level of freedom and prosperity, in a free society.

But this is not the only element of the issue I clearly mentioned above...

Over the last 30 or 40 years, the Cypriots who live in the free areas of Cyprus have seen a much higher rate of increase in their standard of living, than the mainland Turks or the "free" and "safe" Turkish Cypriots. Why?

Various answers can be given to this question... With a pair of blue glasses one may say "this is the justice of GC ruling elite" and some others with a pair of binoculars may say it is a part of "the plan"; like Akritas...

It would make sense, for the TCs, to begin seeking ways of sharing Freedom in Cyprus, especially after they experienced their short-lived success of "sharing" only its Wealth.

There are two meaningful phrases in Turkish my friend: "Kaz gelen yerden tavuğu easirgemezler."(If you plan to get a goose, you give the chicken away for free.) and "Dimyat'a pirince giderken, evdeki bulgurdan da olmak."(While planning to get the better, losing the one you have in your hand.)


And there's a universal phrase: "Better late than never."


Vast majority of TCs going South working there, paying their taxes, taking place in the bi-communal events, shopping, having good time with their TC or GC friends atc, etc... There are various relations between the individuals of two communities... Some based on self-interests and profits, some based on true friendship... They all have similar or various point of view regarding the things they have been doing... This is their chosings... Some of them genuinely wish a just, viable unification; some pretends...

There's nothing extra-ordinary with it... You well know that the circumstances we have been in, shaped these relations... When the circumstances have changed; the relations, plans, strifes, sharings, fightings, struggles will also change; either in a positive or negative way...


I just made a prediction what worst may happen in Cyprus... if you have any opinions about my scenario or any other "What worst may happen in Cyprus" scenario of your own please share with us... I think we should try to see the other side of the medallion as well...


We all know that GCs have concerns about the guarantorship of Turkey and TCs have concerns about the ruling elite of GCs... To tell them your concerns are unfounded can't help...

[erolz]

Erol,
In the US, minorities are treated special. If you need any ideas of how special, please use google.

This first one seems to relate to "Indian and Hawaiian natives" which are not really minorites but actualy the remnants left of the native populations of north america and Hawaii after 'we' europeans came and stole their land and destroyed their cultures.

The second would appear to be a local scheme in an area of Phoneix called Maricopa County.

"The M/WBE Certification Program was implemented in 1993 in response to a disparity study that showed minority and woman-owned firms in Maricopa County were not receiving a proportionate share of city business."

The third would appear to be a more general agency

"Welcome to the Minority Business Development Agency (MBDA).
Our Agency was created to foster the establishment and growth of minority-owned businesses in America. MBDA is not a funding source (refer to the Grant Section (Financing) for grants available by states and the various federal programs). However, MBDA centers and staff can make referrals or provide information on the various funding sources. Additionally, we offer free tools & services to Minority Business Enterprises. If you haven't already done so, take a few minutes to register and take advantage of our free services! "

The fourth is google search on the terms ' "minority participation" status business gov status'

So what are you (trying) to say to me Pantelis? That I should be happy for the TC community to be deemed as nothing more than a minority within their own country because the US runs some schemes to help minorites there overcome prejudice and disadvantage? These schemes exists specificaly _because_ minorites suffer from disadvantage and prejudice. They do not reflect rights of the minorites at all. They reflect a progressive attitude towards those minotites in the USA and the special problems they face.

Have I really failed to make my point so totaly that you think these kind of links have any relevance to the point I am making? Or have I totaly missed your point in presenting these links?

In the UK many local authorites publish goverment leaflets in a whole range of languages (including both Greek and Turkish in those areas of London where there are significant communites of such). Do you really think this is the same as those groups having a right to their language being an offical language of the UK?

Even if the (all Greek) RoC had an world leading record in regard to how it treats TC (in particular) and minorites in general historicaly and currently (and it does NOT have such a record) I would still object to the TC community being deemed as being nothing more than a minority in Cyprus. Can you REALLY not understand this? Will you continue to try and convince me that actually I should be happy for the TC community in Cyprus to have no more status (and thus rights) than of a minority? If so where do we go from here? I will not accept a status of 'minority' for the TC community in a united Cyprus. I will accepts limits on to what degree we can exercise a total right to self determination but not if we are 'more than a minority'. If you can not accept that the TC have a RIGHT to be more than just a minority in Cyprus then stop messing about and let's agree a formal and mutualy acceptable seperation and recognition. Except we all know that such a way forward is no more acceptable to GC than the Annan Plan was. Will not agree to seperation. Will not agree to any status of 'more than a minority' for TC. That too me sounds like a 'maximal demand' without compromise that was not acceptable in 1960 and is still not acceptable today

Again I ask "Can any GC on this forum state that they accept that the TC community SHOULD have a RIGHT to a status greater than that of just a minority and that such recognition is fair and just?" or will you simply repeat why I should not care about such a status for the TC community in Cyprus? TC cared about it in 1960. We still care about it now. Imo that is not likely to change any time soon.

[metecyp]

TC cared about it in 1960. We still care about it now. Imo that is not likely to change any time soon.

Do you believe that 1960 constitution considered TCs as more than a minority? If so, do you believe in a solution based on the RoC?

[erolz]

Do you believe that 1960 constitution considered TCs as more than a minority?

Yes I believe it clearly recognised a status for the TC community in cyprus that was greater than the rights of a mere minority.

If so, do you believe in a solution based on the RoC?

Not if I believed that the majority of GC did not beleive that the status (and rights) granted to the TC community were not fair or just but were just a matter of necessary compromise under duress. If there was evidence that a majority of GC believed in the 'justice' of such a status for the TC community in Cyprus then yes the original 1960 consitituion could be a basis for a settlement (though personaly I think it gave too much power to the TC community in some areas and failed to proctect those TC rights it granted in others). In fact I would consider almost any of the proposed solutions offered since 63 onwards under such conditions (an acceptance of a TC communites RIGHT to a status > minroty). For me this is the core of the deadlock.

[MicAtCyp]

Alexandre Lorde,

The fact that you appeared in this forum with your real name does not really tell me much, as there was no other way to defend an already published study of yours. You claim that your family background and economic status has nothing to do with your study which by the way juuuust happens to be political and as such can be used to drive developents in specific directions. Although we both know how things in Cyprus "get moving" lets assume that you are an exception to the rule. I will put aside all matters relating to your family and presumably your economic status and economic interests, and judge you exclussively by your work.

So lets go to your study. We do we have so far?

A telephone questionaire among 1000 people
The work was done by CYMAR Ltd

First set of comments: As a Political analyst that you are how much can you trust telephone interviews based on exhaustive questionaires? Are people who politely and patiently wait for it to finally end a representative sample?How many people hunged you the phone or refused to answer? Do people get tired over the phone and usually respond only to the last options of a question to get it finished as soon as possible yes or no? As far as I know telephone polls are usually done to investage very simple issues, like which TV channel viewed that very moment, should we veto Turkey yes or no, would you vote yes or no to the Anan Plan, and simple stuff like that.

Second set of comments and questions:
1 Do you live from your work as a Political analyst, I mean do you make your living from this job or do you have other incomes.
2 How much did you pay to CYMAR to do the telephonic work for you?
3 Did you sell the results of your poll, or you just provided them free of charge to the media and anyone who might be interested to get them. If it's the latter, then why? If you sold it did you make a profit?

Now lets go to your study as such.
1 I want to see all the questionaire and the percentage each question or option got.
2 You said you used a computer program to analyse the results and the cluster method to categorise the results into sub groups. I want to see the categories, the criteria you used to flow percentages in there, and the total percentage of each sub group. For example which was your hidden question and what your criteria to flow the answers of an interviewed person into the "nationalist" sub group.Obviously you did not ask "are you a nationalist?" directly to the people did you?
3 After I see all these data I want to see your full line of thinking for every conclussion.

Unless I have all these in hand, it is obvious that the mere fact that you are asking me (and everyone else in this forum) to judge your work, is nothing less than an underestimate of our intelligence. Because what I saw so far is too many "questionable" conclusions.
As an example I can mention the following.

Amongst those who know the Plan "extremely well" the "No" vote still forms a majority. This finding refutes the argument that with greater understanding of the UN Plan the Greek-Cypriots would have voted "Yes".

The finding may well prove that, but in my opinion that could well be a secondary conclussion. The exact percentage that would prove much more or perhaps lead to a complete collapse of the most major HEADER conclusion of the study is absent!

Therefore sorry my friend, if I am to discuss and judge your work, and be able to honestly congratulate or just ignore you, I must have all the information, not just the part you chose.

By the way our friend Erol has a web site of his own, I am sure he will be more than willing to upload your complete data and study-at least for a few weeks. Isn’t it Erol?

*********************************************************
Othelle,

I don't need any lessons from you dear newcomer, and before giving me advices better start reading this thread from it's very begining to understand what is going on. You will then realise that my my critisism was based on the article itself and not on who the writter was. The PS was written after I wrote my critisism and after I just happened to notice the name of the writter and certainly before the writter himself joined the forum. Now that he is a member, I can chose to either concentrate on the "offensive" part of my PS, or proceed to something more constructive. Do you mind?

By the way B-Anan-iot will be very glad to meet a C-Anan-iot like you here.

[erolz]

By the way our friend Erol has a web site of his own, I am sure he will be more than willing to upload your complete data and study-at least for a few weeks. Isn’t it Erol?

Well I have access to webspace resource rather than a website itself ( I have a domain and 'hd' space on a server but no real site as such) but yes I would be more than happy to provide some space for the report should Alexandre wish to use it.

[Alexandros Lordos]

Isn't a mixture of majority rule and political equality the defining characteristic of all federal systems? For instance in the US there is majority rule for congress, and political equality of states in the senate.

I think the only difference between the A Plan and a regular Federation, is that there are qualified majorities for decision making, so that a quota of senators, congressmen etc. from both communities are required for each decision. To offset the deadlocks that such a system could potentially cause, we have the provision for three international judges on the Supreme Court, who will step in if necessary and adjudicate according to the Constitution...

Based on this, some argue that the A Plan is utterly dysfunctional and that it creates a "monster state"... the most "realistic" amongst this group suggest that we should have a regular Federation without any such special safeguards to ensure TC participation in decision making ... whereas the more "daring" go so far as to suggest that we shouldn't even have a Federation, that it should be a Unitary state without even the partial Political Equality that a Federation provides ...

In my opinion, the argument between "fair" Vs "Balanced" is not appropriate in this issue. Both "fair" and "balanced" are relative terms ("Fair" - relative to the point of view, "Balanced" - relative to the age we live in), and therefore neither term can help us reach common ground. It would be more helpful, I believe, to ask ourselves if the solution will be effective, if it will heal the rifts of Cyprus and get us all back on track.

Personally, I believe that the present constitutional balance in the A Plan (qualified majorities, judges etc.) is necessary in order to begin the process of re-unification. It is neither a concession, nor a right - it is simply what needs to be done: After 30 years of seperation, it is only natural that the first steps of re-unification would contain special safeguards to address the insecurities of each side, and in this case we are talking about the insecurities of TC that they would gradually be cast aside by the GC. (Pity that the A Plan wasn't equally sensitive to the insecurities of GC, especially when it comes to the presence of Turkish Troops and Intervention Rights.)

I am not advocating here a Solution without permanent safeguards that will "evolve by itself" within 20 years, leaving us with the Unitary State that GC pine for - No. But on the other hand, we should all be open to the possibility that we might see things very differently thirty years down the line, especially if these thirty years are in the context of a solution rather than separation. Maybe in thirty years from now, the issue of whether Cyprus should change to become a regular Federation (as opposed to an A-Plan Federation), might be put on separate referenda. Maybe the TC will vote Yes, maybe they will vote No, all depending on how secure and respected they feel by that time ... if inter-communal power struggles are by then a ghost of the distant past, then it is very likely that the TC would place the need for effective and rapid decision making higher than the by-then-obsolete provisions of the A-Plan. The plaster is only desirable if the bones have not yet mended ...

But until such time as the TC freely decide to place their trust in the democratic processes of a regular Federal system (without qualified majorities and foreign judges), I believe that we GC should respect their wishes for special safeguards. The Cyprus Problem can only be solved through mutual respect, and the safeguards now present in the A-Plan are there in order to make mutual respect the only available option ...

[erolz]

Isn't a mixture.....

Thank you for that most uplifiting post !

I think the approach of asking if a solution will be effective is a sensible and practicle way forward that sidesteps the issues of rights or concessions.

However in an environment where

"Only a minority of Greek Cypriots - about 23% - resist the prospect of a Federal Solution to the Cyprus Problem. Everyone else accepts Federation, but as a painful compromise which they are willing to tolerate, rather than as an ideal: For most Greek Cypriots, the ideal solution would be a Unitary State, while a Two-State solution would be totally unacceptable."

still leaves me with concerns as to how effective such a federal system might be in practice. If the only thing that is making GC 'tolerate' a federal solution is the current status quo (de facto partition, Turkish troops and lost property) what then happens when the current staus quo changes (no partition, no Turkish troops, reclaimed or compensated property and a Turkey unable to intervene in the future)? Is it not reasonable to expect/fear that such 'tolerance' may also change?

I guess this is why I have become so hung up on attempts to try and argue that a federal solution is not just necessary but also 'just'.

Having said that I found your post most encouraging and positive. Thank you for that.

[Alexandros Lordos]

MicAtCyp,

thank you for your comments. Most of the points you make are absolutely valid - the brief summary I copied-and-pasted here certainly does not prove anything by itself, unless one reads the full report and the data from which my conclusions arose.

I will attempt to answer here some of your questions:

- Telephone interviews have their shortcomings, mostly that people get bored and answer differently near the end, but there are safeguards in place to prevent this from having a marked effect. Namely, questions are asked in random rotation, so that the order in which a question is asked does not cause a systematic skew of results.

-It is true that people respond slightly less carefully in telephone interviews, however this is a random effect which doesn't skew the data in any particular direction and which cancels itself out in a sample of 1,000 people. Telephone interviews are on the whole acceptable for quantitative data, whereas for qualitative work one must rely on personal interviews (ideally unstructured or semi-structured) or focus groups. My study is valid in a quantitative sense (ie which improvement to the Plan is required by which group of people), but it is not sufficient unto itself if we wish to deeply understand the thinking and motivation of each of these groups. You have already read in my summary that I separated people into six groups according to their stance towards the Plan. This separation is statistically accurate, but is at this stage no more than a rough sketch, which sketch provides the framework for further - qualitiative - research, in order to understand each of these six groups more deeply.

- I do not make my living as a political analyst. The title was given to me by Annie Charalabous in her Cyprus Weekly article, and I have never used it neither before nor since. In fact, I am a psychologist by profession, and I run a non-profit Youth Counselling Centre in Greece. I also do research on psychological and social issues, but from the viewpoint of an academic rather than as a profit-making venture. In the case of this particular study, what motivated me to do it was the same mixture of anger and frustration that all of us experience as a result of the Cyprus problem remaining unsolved ...

-I paid Cymar out of my own pocket, CYP 2,500, and then gave the final report for free, to GC and TC politicians and bicommunal activists, as well as to ambassadors of European and Islamic countries. My primary aim in making the study was to inform decision makers about the actual intentions of GC concerning the A-Plan and the prospects for a solution. Some copies of the report are also available for sale in bookshops, but I have not bothered with book presentations, advertisements and such, so only a handful of copies have been sold.

Now, you also asked a number of questions pertaining to the content of the study itself. To avoid re-writing my study in this forum, I will wait until you have had a chance to read my full report, and then we can discuss it in more detail ...

Which brings us to the next point: Erol, I already have my study as a pdf file (it is about 7MB), where would you like me to e-mail it to so that you can upload it?