Here's why Turkey won't become a member before 2015... talks will last at least 10 years and, as with previous accession negotiations (at least in principle), there is no guarantee of membership at the end of it - although effectively Turkey should have completely written into its statutes the acquis by the end of the process, so if accession talks progress, Turkey will have to fundamentally change in many areas.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4632353.stm