Cyprus-Forum.com

[-mikkie2-]

Bananiot,

I am afraid that you are simply living in hope.

I have yet to have anyone comment on what my impression is regarding a possible veto or not in December, and also the possibilities of reaching a solution before Turkey starts negotiations next year.

I think the aim is to place as much pressure on Turkey as is possible before negotiations begin. I do not blame Papadopoulos for wanting to do that. We have been on the back foot for so many years we now have a real chance to extract concessions from Turkey which are long overdue. Remeber, it is Turkey that has been intransigent for so many years and if you think that all of a sudden she is not, then just look at the footdragging when it comes to the humanitarian issue of the missing persons.

[MicAtCyp]

Lies, more lies. He is worse than Papadopoulies.

Bananiot are you afraid to talk clearly? Why do you always hide yourself behind clouds? Or maybe you think we are the Delphi oracle here.
He..... who the hell is "he" tell us his name.

Many voters from other parties, especially DISI, who rejected it in April, are ready to accept it in a new referendum, provided these changes are incorporated into the plan.

People through the ages realised that the words many, heavy, thick, tall etc are relative and meaningless.What do you mean many? Tell us your percentage.Show us a poll that proves it. Otherwise everything is just your personal opinion. Even if what you call "many" is 10,000 people do you know how much percentage is that compared to the total of voters?

[MicAtCyp]

Ok, let's assume this is true. Let's assume that Turkey didn't do anything and the RoC exercised its veto right. Then what? What will be the next step in the peace process? Where do you think this will lead us?

Metecyp I just wrote the facts. It does not mean that I agree or want the veto to occur.On the contrary I don't! I beleive our only hope for a solution will only come if Turkey finally gets her date.

You assume that Turkey will do nothing and you assume that the RoC will go ahead and veto. If Turkey does nothing it means others in the EU want her to do nothing or encourage her to do nothing, or Turkey cannot do anything for internal reasons, or simply Turkey plays it a "tough guy".These 3 possibilities need to be analysed separately. So lets take the first one. Is it because other Countries want Cyprus to join them to their own veto? Or is it because nobody cares about the interests of Cyprus?

I said it in the past and I will repeat it today. If there will be a veto against Turkey it will not come from one country alone not even France alone. It will come from a minimum of 2 countries. And I will not be suprised if this number is even 5 in the end. It will be the result of a chain reaction behind the scenes during the week before the 17 th of December. The question is, if France alone cannot veto Turkey, should Turkey risk causing a chain reaction by adding Cyprus in the candidate list? Be sure some Scandinavians will then join, maybe Greece and Germany next and who knows what will happen in the end. So it is for Turkeys interest to avoid this possibility.

The question is what interest might Cyprus have joining other Countries to a veto? Turkey outside the EU means definite partition for Cyprus isn't it?

The answer to that is that there is no country in the EU who will veto Turkey for the purpose of leaving Turkey completely out of the EU. The same applies to Cyprus. The ones who will veto is because they want either a special relation of EU with Turkey or for other reasons. Therefore if the situation is such that some countries will agree behind the scenes to veto, then they will make their intention known to the other EU members and Turkeys bid will not even go for voting.They will simply tell Turkey go home make your homework and come back in a year.

[MicAtCyp]

I have yet to have anyone comment on what my impression is regarding a possible veto or not in December, and also the possibilities of reaching a solution before Turkey starts negotiations next year.

Mikkie your line of thinking seems very reasonable and convincing. I actually don't have a strong opinion on the matters you mentioned so I will limit my reply by just putting down what information I collected so far.
You talked about 31 opportunities to "veto" Turkey during the accession talks, i.e as many as the 31 chapters. My information is that in only 3 chapters Cyprus will have anything to say.And that the first one will come around 2007.
You talked about the countless of implications Turkey will have during those negotiations while the Cyprus problem is unsolved.
My information is that if Turkey gets a free ticket for starting negotiations without recognising the RoC, without lifting her embargo on our ships and our planes, and without any commitment on a timetable for withdrawing her forces from here, it is not Turkey who is going to have implications but us.

Well, these are my information, and I admit I cannot support these points with arguments, as I have very little knowledge of how the EU works during such negotiations.If anyone can please go ahead.

[-mikkie2-]

Hi MicAtCyp,

Cyprus will have a say in all 31 chapters one way or another. I have included a link which will explain the process in much more detail:

http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/negotiations/index.htm

My information is that if Turkey gets a free ticket for starting negotiations without recognising the RoC, without lifting her embargo on our ships and our planes, and without any commitment on a timetable for withdrawing her forces from here, it is not Turkey who is going to have implications but us.

I don't believe that this will be the case. The implication here is that Turkey cannot enter negotiations if it does not recognise Cyprus. A yes from us will be a qualified one. The minimum that would be expected is for Turkey to recognise Cyprus before the start of negotiations, to sign the customs union encompassing Cyprus and to allow full freedom of air and shipping. Of course Turkey is banking on us saying yes without conditions, but if that does happen then Turkey will fall over at the first hurdle anyway because Turkey will be violating many of the chapters in the case of Cyprus - the Cypriot delegation will put forward its positions to each negotiating team. If those positions are not accounted for, Cyprus can block that particular chapter and hence stall the process. I don't think it will be the easy option for Turkey, on the contrary, it will be the opposite!

[MicAtCyp]

Hi Mikkie and thanks for the link.
I will read it and hopefully get out of it wiser.

[brother]

In short if the ROC 'veto' turkey in december you will have effectively cut your nose off to spite your own face.

A smart move is to wait for the 31 opportunities that will come, also the first politician that manages to entice turkey through agreement rather than threats which seems to be 'tassos' only way of thinking will make it happen.

Always remember that throughout turkeys history that when pushed into a corner by its adversary it always fights back with no thought for the concequences afterwards, hence letting turkey become a true democratic country will probably work best for us all.

I know this could take a few more years but we have waited 30 years already.

This is not my usual stance but current developments i.e Macedonia has forced us to look at different angles.

[-mikkie2-]

Brother,

We cannot wait 'a few more years'. The solution must happen soon, very soon. Because in 10 years time, northern Cyprus will have become so developed there will be nowhere for GC's to return to. The only hope we have is that in exchange for Turkey getting her date on the 17th, our European partners extract from Turkey the promise that they will help solve the problem before negotiations start. It is obvioulsy to Turkeys advantage to prolong the solution so that a de-facto solution is put into force, ie two seperate states. The obvious flip side to this is that Turkey will probably never enter the EU.

[brother]

mikkie,
i have always maintained that turkey has other agendas and also believe that if they are not going to get into the E.U they already know it and are using this as a way to transform the country and with the current developments with the U.S and its recognising Macedonia despite the powerful greek lobbies i find this very worrying.

All i am looking for is an alternative so we may be able to unite our country, as this 'veto' idea is not going to work and will only serve to speed up the partition for ever, which may i add is not in our interest at all.

I think the only way is through friendly negotiations with a turkey in the E.U membership process but saying that, the E.U process could be a sham aswell and yet another political game, on whole i think we should all tread carefully and not be so gun-ho like piratis wants to be as this will ultimately serve to hurt all cypriots.

I want to add that in the bigger picture of things all senior level people in the E.U know what is going on and that includes 'tassos', hence most of what we read or hear via the press or t.v is designed to make the population think whatever suits the interests of the powerful states on this globe and not for one minute do i believe that us 'cypriots' are or ever will be important enough for the E.U and U.S to ever really care about what we want or don,t want but on the other hand turkey is big and a emerging powerful state and they are part of the bigger picture, so there interests will always carry weight with the E.U and U.S as they are partners in globalisation.

By all means i am not suggesting we lie down and let them walk all over us but we the cypriots must as a people first unite our interests amongst many other things and then when we emerge as one people will we manage to unite our island but as you know there are people out there who will do there best to ensure there can be no unity amongst us, but we can rise above this as the TC did when they went against Denktash.

I ASK ALL CYPRIOTS WHO COME TO THIS FORUM FORGIVE EACH OTHER FOR THE PAST AND LOOK TO THE FUTURE, TO DO THIS WE MUST START TO DO THINGS TOGETHAR TO SPEED UP OUR HEALING PROCESS, AND THEN AS A UNITED PEOPLE WE WILL NOT ASK OUR POLITICIANS TO UNITE OUR ISLAND WE WILL TELL THEM THAT IS THE WAY IT WILL BE.

AS TWO SEPARATE COMMUNITIES WE ARE WEAK AND DESTINED FOR EXPLOYTATION BUT TOGETHER WE ARE STRONG AND CAN STOP THEM FROM HURTING US ANYMORE AND ACHIEVE OUR UNITED CYPRUS.

PEACE UPON ALL MY CYPRIOT BROTHERS

[Bananiot]

I am with you brother, all the way. However, I can only see one way forward. Our only chance is for Papadopoulos to declare openly that he is willing to resume talks on the basis of the A plan and to pinpoint clearly the changes he wants, which of course will not change the philosophy of the plan. This changes must take into consideration the needs of the TC's, otherwise the whole exercise will be a waste of time. I am not sure whether the international factor will lend a helpful ear to Papadopoulos since he commands no respect abroad. He is doing quite well in Cyprus but he is doing lousy abroad. I cannot see Papadopoulos doing this and thus I am very pessimistic. The future of Cyprus has been sealed. By a handful of no good nationalists and racists. These people were helped by the heavy hand of Christofias.