Range of opinion polls come to the same conclusions
By Philippos Stylianou
THIS has been a week of opinion polls ahead of the May 21 parliamentary elections, with no less than three having been released by the media that commissioned them.
In general, all agree that left-wing main government partner Akel leads the race with a clear edge over right-wing opposition Disy, though the overall strength of the two big parties looks weaker by comparison to previous elections.
Most of the gains are garnered by ruling Diko, while a high percentage of undecided voters introduce an element of unpredictability at this stage, especially for the smaller parties.
Who is in,
who is out?
The results of a poll released last night by Sigma TV predict that 6 out of the 9 parties contesting the elections will get more than 1.8% of votes and make it to the House.
These are Akel, which gets 32.4% and 19 seats (one less than in the outgoing parliament), Disy 30.5% and 18 seats (the same as previously), Diko 18.3% and 11 seats (two more than before), Edek 7.1% and 4 seats (the same as before), Evroko 3.4% and 3 seats, and the Ecologists 3.4% and 1 seat (no change).
The three losers remaining below the parliamentary threshold are Edi with 1.7%, Evrodi with 1% and the Free Citizens Movement (KEP) with 0.8%.
By subtracting the undecided votes, Akel gets 15 seats in the first count, 3 in the second and 1 in the third, while Disy gets 14, 3 and 1 respectively and Diko 7, 3 and 1.
It looks like a thriller for Edek, which gets only one seat in the first count and all remaining three in the second. Evroko gets one seat in every count. If the results prove true it will come as a great disappointment to the Greens (Ecologists & Environmentalists) who have been eager for a second seat.
Greatest party
coherence
The Sigma poll, conducted by the Cyprus College Research Centre between April1-10, shows the undecided votes standing at 10.6%, exactly half those of the Mega poll which roughly covered the same period (see below).
Without calculating the undecided votes, Akel shows a current strength of 29%, Disy 27.3%, Diko 16.4%, Edek 6.4%, Evroko 4.3%, Greens 3%, Edi 1.5%, Evrodi 0.9% and KEP 0.8%.
Diko shows the greatest party coherence with 87%, followed by Edek with 81% - contrasting sharply with other poll results – Akel 78% and Disy 75%.
The poll sample takes a positive view of the Government as regards the Cyprus problem (55%) while 22% said their opinion was neither positive nor negative. The clearly negative attitude represented 21% and only 2% declined to answer.
The government’s domestic policy still received approval but less strongly, dropping to 44%, while 31% took a negative stand and 24% no sides.
The opposition’s performance was judged to be a disaster. On the Cyprus problem, 58% expressed a negative opinion and only 15% a positive one, with 24% answering either way. 3% declined to answer.
There was no solace for the opposition in domestic policy issues, on which it mainly bases its election campaign.
Strongest motivation
for voting
Of those asked, 50% said they had a negative opinion, 27% said they neither had a positive nor a negative opinion and only 20% approved.
On a scale of ten, 7.95 said their strongest motivation for voting would be the Cyprus problem, 7.25 the domestic administration, 7.90 the personality of the candidates and 5.98 would follow the family tradition.
Akel Secretary General Demetris Christofias tops the popularity chart for political leaders with 47%, followed by Diko’s Nicos Cleanthous with 32%. Edek’s Yiannakis Omirou with 36%, the Green’s Giorgos Perdikis with 265, Disy’s Nicos Anastassiades with 24%, Evroko’s Demetris Syllouris with 21%, Evrodi’s Prodromos Prodromou with 17% and Edi’s Mihalis Papapetrou with 11%.
The poll used a sample of 800 with personal interviews, a structured questionnaire and a ballot box.
A novelty
from Mega
A recent opinion poll by Mega Channel covering the period April -8 showed a smaller gap between Akel and Disy and low percentages all round, since a surprise find was that 21% of those asked would be deciding on the last moment on how to use their vote.
This was perhaps the reason why there was no conversion of the undecided votes in the announced results.
According to the results, Akel’s strength stands at 26.7%, Disy’s at 24.8%, and Diko’s 16.3%, followed by Edek with 3.9%, Evroko with 2.6%, the Ecologists with 1.8%, Edi with 1%, Evrodi with 0.3% and the Free Citizens Party with 0.3%.
A majority of 63% said they were decided on how to vote and would not be changing their mind, 6% said they could change their mind, 9% were inclined towards a certain party and 21% said they would decide on the last moment.
Akel presented the greatest coherence with 80% but losing voters to Diko and Edi, while Disy’s coherence was only 69.8% with significant leakages to Diko and Evroko.
Diko, which other polls show to vie with Akel forcoherence, is only credited with 71.8% with a surprising 7.2% drifting of voters to Disy and another 3.3% to Akel. Edek has the weakest coherence among the large parties with 58%, losing voters to Diko and the Greens.
Politicians with
a future
Asked to assess the prospects for a solution of the Cyprus problem, 32% said this would come about in the next years on better terms that would have been the case under the Annan Plan, 23% said the Cyprus problem would only be solved when Turkey also joins the EU and 40% did not foresee any solution at all.
Introducing a novel feature the Mega poll asked interviewees to say which politicians, besides the Republic’s President and party leaders, had a future ahead of them.
Disy Euro MP and former Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides came top with 11%, followed by Akel spokesman Andros Kyprianou with 9%, Akel parliamentary spokesman Nicos Katsourides with 8%, Interior Minister Andreas Christou with 6% and Averof Neophytou with 5%. Christos Stylianides, Marios Karoyian and Markos Kyprianou also scored 2%.
Although the poll sample was rather large, 1,512 persons, the interviews were done by phone, something about which at least one of the politicians invited to comment on the results expressed strong reservations.
Phileleftheros shows
Akel increasing lead
The Phileleftheros poll, based on the largest sample so far of 2,200 interviewees and using a ballot box, covered the period March 10-19, when President Papadopoulos met UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in Paris, the two Green Line regulations were decoupled and Disy withdrew from the National Council.
The results show leftist Akel increasing its lead over right-wing opposition Disy to as much as 3.5% and ruling Diko breaking the 20% barrier for the first time, with significant losses for all other parties.
After the conversion of the blank or invalid and don’t know votes, the results were: Akel 33%, Disy 29.6%, Diko 21.5%, Edek 5.6%, Evroko 3.8%, Ecologists 1.9%, Edi 0.7%, Evrodi 0.4%, undecided 3.6%.
Nevertheless, with a statistical error of more than 2% for the two biggest parties, 1.9% for Diko and up to 1% for the smaller parties, the real results on May 21 could turn out to be quite different.
Akel appears to have the greatest party coherence, 82.9%, followed by Diko’s 80.8% and Disy’s 70.9%.
The majority of those asked, 65%, said they were resolved about how they were going to vote and did not think they would change their mind, but there was also a quite high percentage, 15%, who said they would wait until the last moment to decide.
Seven percent said they had decided but could change their mind, 8% said they were inclined towards a particular choice but were still undecided what their final decision would be, while 5% declined to answer.
Changes in
popularity
The poll records some changes in the popularity ratings of party leaders, with Akel Secretary General Demetris Christofias firmly in the lead, followed by Edek’s Yiannakis Omirou, Diko’s Nicos Cleanthous, the Ecologist’s Secretary General Giorgos Perdikis, Evroko’s Demetris Syllouris, Disy’s Nicos Anastassiades, Evrodi’s Prodromos Prodromou and right at the bottom Edi’s Michalis Papapetrou.
Conclusions: AKEL is first, DIKO gets more, EDI are out
