https://t.me/rybar/41786
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About the situation with the Russian oil price ceiling
The actions of the Russian leadership after the introduction of the ceiling on oil prices are now aimed at maintaining the volume of supplies.
What about the oil price ceiling?
The introduction of a ceiling on oil prices in the presence of an embargo in the EU countries is demonstrative.
The key task is to persuade countries outside the EU to adopt a unified system of market manipulation, which is now being formed by the countries of the "golden billion" in their own interests. This mechanism involves not only setting prices, but also the introduction of numerous conditions that sellers and buyers must meet in order to be able to carry out transactions.
Ok, but what if the ceiling is brought in?
The $60 level itself is comfortable for the Russian oil industry.
There have been periods in recent history when deliveries from Russia also came at lower prices. However, the very fact of introducing all sorts of "ceilings" is categorically unacceptable for Russia and many other countries.
One of the goals in this case is to limit Russia to the framework of agreements on economically beneficial terms for the European Union, which involve a dynamic reduction in the oil price ceiling with a decrease in stock prices. At the same time, the ceiling price should be 5% lower than exchange prices - this is directly indicated in the text of the Council's decision (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... DA_22_7469).
If the Russian leadership agrees with such "market methods" of setting prices for its products, then the domestic volume of oil remains on the market, and American investment funds begin to play for a fall.
As practice shows, exchange manipulations make it possible to quickly lower the price of oil to the level of $28-30 or even $8, as it was before the collapse of the USSR. And this is a direct threat to the budget of the Russian Federation, which is still half formed from oil and gas revenues.
Is Russia going to do something about it?
A response has been prepared: Deputy Prime Minister and ex-Minister of Energy Alexander Novak has already announced (https://www.rbc.ru/economics/04/12/2022 ... 80a3ae8315) that mechanisms are being worked out to ban oil trade with those countries that support price caps. The current situation is well understood by other world oil suppliers, which is the reason for the support of the position of the Russian Federation by OPEC.
Under the circumstances, companies from Turkey, China and India benefit. They have the opportunity to purchase Russian oil at a big discount. Further, the oil is processed at local refineries and delivered to end consumers in the form of fuel.
The Turkish insurance and banking community is now trying to earn the most. Immediately after the introduction of the embargo in the EU, Turkish ship and cargo insurance requirements were changed, which led to the accumulation of ships (https://www.shiplocation.com/wikishipia ... NE-TRAFFIC) in Turkish territorial waters . The restrictions apply specifically to ships with Kazakh oil heading to the EU, while Russian ships pass through the straits freely.
What does world experience say?
Greek companies (https://t.me/econopocalypse/119), which control up to 30% of the world's tanker fleet, have long specialized in oil supplies from Iran and Venezuela. The total number of their "unmarked" fleet is about 1000 ships.
The Russian authorities have also dramatically increased their “competencies” in this area, purchasing 29 tankers in 2022 and over 100 vessels.
The question arises - where are there so many ships on the market? Most of the tankers were built 12-15 years ago. Now they are at the limit of their resource. But in the absence of insurance and monitoring systems, issues of vessel reliability fade into the background.
These tankers are planned to be used on short routes to the nearest ports, where oil can be transshipped to other ships or terminals. These measures, in combination with the development of the RNPK and the Northern Sea Route (https://t.me/econopocalypse/119), will help offset the effect of the imposed restrictions.
In this situation, it is critical for Russian suppliers to develop not only other oil delivery channels, but also alternative settlement mechanisms outside the US-controlled dollar circuit.
Today, part of the payments are already being made in national currencies, but work in this direction should become systematic.
#oil #Russia
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