Londonrake wrote:I always thought Russia would ultimately prevail in this war, the numbers seemed to speak for themselves, and that Paphitis was suffering from an excess of jingoism.
Nevertheless, I’m beginning to think he may have been on the right track, all along.
I suppose it ultimately comes down to your definition of “win”.
My position has never been a position of jingoism or wishful thinking. I actually believed Ukraine will defeat the Russian Invasion from Day 1. Even when Russian Forces were at the outskirts of Kyiv, I believed Ukraine would win. However, I could not rule out at the time the possibility that Russia could have delivered the killer blow to the UKG. But, I believed the Russians would have had to enter Kyiv, go from building to building, street to street, and meeting heavy resistence from the Ukrainian Military. It would have been the biggest bloodbath we have ever seen in our lifetimes, with thousands of Ukrainian Civilians dieing each day, and the Russian Military losing many thousands of soldiers also, in a military action that can never be sustained. But nevertheless, I was worried at the time, but still believed Russia would fail.
I now am not even worried. I know Russia will fail. Everything is now in Ukraine's favour and the Ukrainian Military leadership have handled everything like a western military would, with a bit of old Soviet Style military doctrine added in. The Ukrainians, supported by many western countries, including the US, and many others to boot, have meticulously planned everything with minute detail and precision and played the Russians to their strengths. In the early days, Ukraine wasn't well equiped with weapons, and therefore, the Ukrainians had to protect their soldiers. Make many tactical withdrawalls and save their troops as much as practiceable. Surrender territory is preferred to losing thousands of soldiers in a short space of time. Just resist, spoil and delay the Russians, but the price in lives had to be acceptable. This is Western Military Doctrine.
And by delaying and buying time, it allowed the Americans, NATO and many other countries, to begin the arduous task of arming the Ukrainians with Russian, Western and also many game changer weapons systems such as the HIMARS, ATACMS, Javelin, Bayraktar and Stinger Missiles. Russia still can not get around these game changer weapons systems. It's about the right tools, to hit at Russia's weak points. The way everything was planned and figured out was absolutely perfect.
That's when a new phase had begun. The Ukrainian Military still built up defences, to spoil and delay the Russians and still concede territory rather than send its troops into a meat grinder. It was all about weakening the Russians and waiting for the weak points to develop. And how would they develop? With the game changer weapons, in particular, HIMARS. Every Day, every night, salvos of HIMARS and maybe even ATACMS (not confirmed) would be launched against Russian Command and Control Centres, Railways, Major Supply Routes, and Logistics and Weapons Storage bases. This would happen every night, and the blows dealt to Russia were devastating and costly.
And over a period of time, Western Intelligence Services and Ukrainian Intelligence would assess the sharp decline in Russian Morale. But still too early. Then, with the utmost expertise, the Ukrainians were getting under Russia's nose, with Psychological Warfare that was conducted with text book precision. The Ukrainians signalled the Kherson Offensive would take place. And thgey would do a number of shaping operations along the front to convince the Russians to re-inforce the area which is what they did. Then, the supply lines were cut. So effectively, there are up to 25,000 Russian soldiers now trapped.
Then, the Ukrainians attack in Kharkiv Oblast which was the intention all along.
But don't be fooled. The Ukrainian Military will attack and is already conducting successful operations in Kherson. But they are doing it wisely. There is no point in conducting a full scale attack now. It is a slow and meticulous offensive to draw Russian Fire. Russian Troops have no supply lines. Therefore, it's a waiting game. And it's done this way to reduce Ukrainian Casualties. The point where the Russian Defences collapse is inevitable. In my opinion, I predict a partial Russian collapse within 48 hours as Ukrainian Forces are only about 30 km from the Dam. Russians to the north could potentially be cut off, trapped and captured. More likely though, the Russians will retreat. It's a losing battle for them.
More likely scenario though is that Russian Forces will collapse and surrender in about a weeks time, or towards the end of September.
And if it doesn't happen, it will certainly happen in October. The Ukrainian Objective in my opinion is that it has to happen before winter.
When it happens, the Ukrainians would have shut down 250 kms of the front. They have natural defences in Kherson and can redploy tens of thousands of troops.
But I also think the Ukrainians will start a third front to divert Russian Forces there as well. Mariupol.
In the north, the Ukrainians will cut off vital supply lines to the north of Donbass. And they will even free Sievierodonetsk and Lysichansk from the rear. This is what it looks like to me.
And why do I believe Ukraine will win? It's very simple. Everything favours them now. As the Tempo reduces over winter, the west will continue to supply and train Ukrainian Forces with great weapons. Cyprus is now considering sending Ukraine its entire fleet of T-80 Tanks even. The entire world is united against Russia.
But the biggest reason is that the Ukrainians are very high in morale. they all want to fight for their country as defenders, protecting their nation, people and families. There is no greater morale boost and inspiration than that. It doesn't matter even if Russia mobilizes. The bigger elephant in the room is if Ukraine mobilizes, and Ukraine's conscripts will be better motivated than Russia's and deploy much quicker and faster. And the taps of western arms are open. Ukraine has not fully mobilized.
The only soldeirs Russia has that can actually put up some kind of fight are its mercenaries from Chechnya and Wagner Group. But even still, Ukrainian Soldiers have better morale and drive even over them. Russia will deploy some criminals from its prison system. The only advantage they would have over Ukrainian Soldiers is their willingness to kill another human. All soldiers close their eyes the first time the fire that lethal shot. These Russian Criminals will not close their eyes. They will kill women, children, rape and pillage.
You can't fight and defeat the Ukrainians. It's impossible. So many superpowers have found out the hard way.
Cyprus, in 1955-1959 dared to fight the British. Just 300, maybe 500 tops, EOKA fighters would attack, terrorize, bomb and ambush the British Military and other targets.
Here is a story of the kind of enemy the British would face. My mother lived in a house in Paphos at the time. Next door was a Cypriot who was a British Police officer. 2 EOKA fighters jumped the fence into her backyard, pulled their balaklavas down to cover their face, told my mother to scram and go to her Mother. They jumped over the next fence, kicked the door open, found this police man, made him kneel and executed him at point blank. The 2 EOKA boys, then went out on the street as another mother pushing a pram with a baby was strolling along in time for the 2 EOKA boys to remove their Blaklavas and place them into the pram before disappearing before they could be arrested by the British. Just like that.
Britain couldn't fight against that, just like Russia can't in Ukraine.
So many examples as well. Russia, in Afghanistan. US in Aghanistan. US in Vietnam and so on and so on.
Now, Russia's expedition in Ukraine, is looking to be one of the biggest military disasters in history.
I JUST BELIEVE UKRAINE WILL WIN. BELIEVED IT IN FEBRUARY AND I BELIEVE IT TODAY EVEN MORE.
And what is more, is that the Ukrainian People believe this as well. See what I mean. It's a people that won't stop. Like the Taliban never stopped. At which point it will be time for Russia to withdraw. That is an inevitability. Russia will not fight this for the next 10 years. I don't believe they have another 12 months tops. But for Ukrainians, it doesn't matter how long.
Put yourselves in the boots of a Russian Soldier, knowing you are fighting a war that is unwinnable. And seeing all your mates die around you as their commanders throw them into the meat grinder. And the fact they are not even paid correctly, taking away the financial incentive. The fact that you are hungry and freezing because no suplly lines. And seeing everything get blown up from HIMARS. Well, who do you think will be in higher spirits?
Russia, is stuffed! Big time.
Sorry to all the apologists. But the laugh is on all of YOU.
by Paphitis » Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:15 am 
