Somebody recently asked how Russia would tackle Lithuania...Russia would deal with all three Baltic States in one go starting top down (Estonia), in order to prevent getting sandwiched by NATO.
With a combined manpower of just 45,000 the three Baltic States would be easily overrun by a Russian attacking force of say 150-200K professional soldiers, backed by air-power.
It’s important to note that such a mission would not be a “special operation” as in the Ukraine because the aim would not be to liberate a Russian speaking ethnic group, but a declaration of war on all three states at once for violating a number of agreements with respect to Kalinigrad and maybe other agreements, so there would be no holds barred for Russia.
This would mean that there would be no tiptoeing around civilians, no delays, and none of the hurdles that a “special operation” involves. I estimate that the Baltic States would be captured in about two weeks max, perhaps earlier due to their insignificant defenses and mediocre troop numbers.
And no, I don’t expect NATO to militarily intervene in support of the Baltic States given that their actions against Kalinigrad legally justify war and that Russian retaliation to such provocation would be a given.
And last but not least, I don’t expect America to risk nuclear war for the sake of three little ex-soviet states that I’m sure the US couldn’t care less about.
The three Baltic states risk losing their independence thanks to their dumb assumption that they can afford to antagonize a superpower because America can always come to their rescue, but they may well soon learn a harsh lesson that America is not prepared to risk WWIII; especially when they got left behind in such technology, for the sake of former soviet midgets playing games with Article 5.
Call Putin’s bluff once more for the biggest miscalculation of them all, for it would take Russia just a few days to steamroll through them all!
Another opinion:
Does Lithuania Want To Start A War With Russia?https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... th-russia/
