Londonrake wrote:Kikapu wrote:Hello LR,
I am around, just not posting much at the moment.
It appears Russia is taking the fight to Ukraine/NATO methodically in reaching their goals, I meter at a time, at least that’s how it has been up to this point on the eve of the two year anniversary of the war, however, the crushed and demoralized Ukraine/NATO will likely get crushed at faster rate from here on. I haven’t posted much on Ukraine lately since the war is coming to a close not to far in the future. I believe both Paphitis and Pyro feel the same way, hence not posting on the subject. No one takes pleasure in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of soldiers, regardless whether they are Russians or Ukrainians or mercenaries along with civilians. Let’s just wait for the final chapter of this war, which may be here much earlier than expected!
Salutations.
We - sort of - agree on some points. Yes, it's 2 years tomorrow I believe. Yet, Russian gains in all that time, given their overwhelming superiority in most areas, have been relatively modest. We hear that this or that village has been "liberated". Casualty and equipment loss figures are always contentious but there are certainly some credible accounts of how the body-count and loss of armour has been eye watering. Not that it would be a concern for Mr Putin.
I would ask. If given what you say were to happen - and I still can't see how the West could allow Putin to conquer the whole of Ukraine (surely, Moldova at least would be next) - how do you see their occupation going afterwards? There would be a nation of 40 million who despised Russians, armed covertly to the teeth in a way that would make the US armament of the Mujahadeen look like a nursery affair. Any Quisling Ukranian puppets would be taken out like flies. Step up? A non pensionable job for sure? It would surely be a total shit fest for the Russians? I've seen estimates it would take occupational forces of well over a million to maintain what would be a draconianly repressive rule.
What's your view on that?
Sorry for the delayed response LR. I had some pressing matters to deal with.
I don’t remember Russia ever saying they wanted to take the whole of Ukraine. In fact, had the Minsk accord was accepted by Ukraine, Russia would not have taken any Ukrainian territory which they hold now since Feb 2022. But thanks to NATO’s insistence that Ukraine decline Russia’s offer for a peaceful settlement despite murdering 14,000+ Russian speaking Ukrainians in the Donbas regions, they choose to roll the dice and fight on NATO’s behalf, and now we are where we are.
The way I see it, Russia is fighting their war in the order of importance to them, and not anyone’s else’s. Their main objectives were to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and it has been achieved so far. Secondly, it was to decimate the Ukrainian military, and they are achieving that too 1 meter at a time. Russia does not need to have a Wild Wild West style shoot-out with the Ukrainians all across the front line at the same time, but instead, concentrate on specific locations where Ukraine sends in endless troops to defend and the Russians take them out. After all, why go after your enemy to kill when your enemy comes to you to be killed? That is a win-win strategy for Russia. They are fighting this war on their own terms.
Since Russia has been forced to enter this war, they will take more Ukrainian territory in order to protect the greater Russia, which means taking ALL of the Black Sea Coastline from Ukraine, even if there were to be a negotiated settlement, just so to protect their Black Sea Fleet in the future. When I said that the war will be over soon, I did not mean that the guns will be silent. It just means that Ukraine has lost the war, but hasn’t given up the fight yet.
How far will the Russians push to the West in Ukraine depends how long range missiles the collective West gives to Ukraine to reach Russia? Russia might take 1/3, 1/2, 3/4 or 100%. Ukraine is lucky if there are 20 million citizens left in the country now. Should Russia go for the 100%, almost all of the Ukrainians will cross their borders to other countries. EU will love that...not! Russia does not need to go into Moldova or any other country for that matter unless of course they decide to follow Ukraine’s foolish lead to become another proxy war base for the collective West. Then all bets are off and the war will just continue on with the West’s blessings, in the hopes of the West getting a second bite at the apple to defeat Russia. Typical gamblers sickness.
