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Ukrainian Issue

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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby Londonrake » Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:01 pm

Kikapu wrote:Actually, Russia does not need to post any more soldiers to it’s border with newly NATO member Finland than what there is already there now. All Russia will do, is to point 10 nukes towards Finland, which Russia can spare from the few thousand they have. All of a sudden, Finland has become a nuclear target by their own desire since there were never any threat to Finland from Russia to begin with. Now there is, created by the stupid Fins! :roll:


A quiet night. :D

Forgive the flippancy. You're turn. :wink:

One of the principle reasons Putin ordered the Russian invasion of Ukraine was of course his well publicised concern at NATO's expansion. I take it that's accepted?

Due to invading Ukraine Russia now finds itself with over 800 more miles of its border directly facing the organisation though. A doubling from pre-Feb 2022. St Petersburgh is now about 450Kms from NATO. Kaliningrad 1000. Not only that, but the Baltic has in essence just become a NATO lake. The law of unintended consequences? Actually I would suggest, more the case of a historic miscalculation. One which makes nonsense of the supposed motivation for going to war against Ukraine in order to prevent their becoming a member of the organisation (which wasn't going to happen anytime soon regardless).

Wrt your above. I'm sure a man like yourself appreciates it isn't simply a case of Russian nuclear forces checking Finland's membership of the organisation. Problem solved. If that were so why invade Ukraine? Nuclear weapons are a last resort. Well, in the absence of GR, the ex-resident forum loon, I imagine all rational people believe so. Russia will now have to deploy conventional forces to counter the "threat" from an ex-neutral, now NATO, Finland. Hard to see where from though. Given they have had to call up 300,000 to deal with Ukraine.


As far as nuclear weapons go. You don't "point" them. Re-targetting nowadays is a relatively quick process. In fact, since the advent of mobile ICBMs in the 90s the US land-based variant can have their targets updated in mid-flight. Submarine ICBM targeting is less easy, for a number of reasons. As a NATO member now Finland comes under the protection of the nuclear umbrella. So....................... Russia better be sure. Would they be willing to trade Helsinki for Moscow?

More importantly, what it means of course is that any idea of overt hostilities against Finland has now become significantly more problematic. Moreover, even the - more likely - intimidating threat of such has also been negated by Article 5.


Anyway, happy (Orthodox) Easter to all you people. Peace on Earth, etc. And let's hope that (perhaps?) this time next year we're arguing - bitterly of course :lol: - about less draconian things. :wink:
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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby repulsewarrior » Fri Apr 14, 2023 12:56 am



...just more stuff to consider.
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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby Kikapu » Fri Apr 14, 2023 2:32 am

Londonrake wrote:
Kikapu wrote:Actually, Russia does not need to post any more soldiers to it’s border with newly NATO member Finland than what there is already there now. All Russia will do, is to point 10 nukes towards Finland, which Russia can spare from the few thousand they have. All of a sudden, Finland has become a nuclear target by their own desire since there were never any threat to Finland from Russia to begin with. Now there is, created by the stupid Fins! :roll:


A quiet night. :D

Forgive the flippancy. You're turn. :wink:

One of the principle reasons Putin ordered the Russian invasion of Ukraine was of course his well publicised concern at NATO's expansion. I take it that's accepted?

Due to invading Ukraine Russia now finds itself with over 800 more miles of its border directly facing the organisation though. A doubling from pre-Feb 2022. St Petersburgh is now about 450Kms from NATO. Kaliningrad 1000. Not only that, but the Baltic has in essence just become a NATO lake. The law of unintended consequences? Actually I would suggest, more the case of a historic miscalculation. One which makes nonsense of the supposed motivation for going to war against Ukraine in order to prevent their becoming a member of the organisation (which wasn't going to happen anytime soon regardless).

Wrt your above. I'm sure a man like yourself appreciates it isn't simply a case of Russian nuclear forces checking Finland's membership of the organisation. Problem solved. If that were so why invade Ukraine? Nuclear weapons are a last resort. Well, in the absence of GR, the ex-resident forum loon, I imagine all rational people believe so. Russia will now have to deploy conventional forces to counter the "threat" from an ex-neutral, now NATO, Finland. Hard to see where from though. Given they have had to call up 300,000 to deal with Ukraine.


As far as nuclear weapons go. You don't "point" them. Re-targetting nowadays is a relatively quick process. In fact, since the advent of mobile ICBMs in the 90s the US land-based variant can have their targets updated in mid-flight. Submarine ICBM targeting is less easy, for a number of reasons. As a NATO member now Finland comes under the protection of the nuclear umbrella. So....................... Russia better be sure. Would they be willing to trade Helsinki for Moscow?

More importantly, what it means of course is that any idea of overt hostilities against Finland has now become significantly more problematic. Moreover, even the - more likely - intimidating threat of such has also been negated by Article 5.


Anyway, happy (Orthodox) Easter to all you people. Peace on Earth, etc. And let's hope that (perhaps?) this time next year we're arguing - bitterly of course :lol: - about less draconian things. :wink:


I will keep my response short and sweet.

Apples and Oranges! :lol:

I hate to state the obvious but, Finland‘s NATO membership has far far less value to the alliance or a threat to Russia than Ukraine’s NATO membership would by far. Bring on Sweden too! Just look at the geography to see the differences. Finland was never a threat to Russia before as a NATO member or will it be after. Same with Russia against Finland. In chess, that would be called a “stalemate”.

You can not compare NATO Ukraine controlling Crimea and the Sea of Azov to the Baltic Sea becoming a “NATO Lake”. Turkey is a NATO member and Russian commercial and military ships pass through problem free through the Bosporus Straits and the same will be at “NATO Lake” in the Baltic Sea. Who is going to stop the Russian sea traffic in this area? I’m sorry, I didn’t hear. Say it again please! :wink:
Last edited by Kikapu on Fri Apr 14, 2023 2:58 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby Kikapu » Fri Apr 14, 2023 2:40 am

Londonrake wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/13/pentagon-leaks-og-source-military-base-discord-report

.


I think the guy who stole the the files and leaked them is the same guy on the sail boat who free dived/dove and blew up the Nord Stream 2. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Only a sucker born every minute who would buy into such BS reporting as above. :wink:

Here, watch this!

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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby repulsewarrior » Sat Apr 15, 2023 12:20 am



...lots of news.

(it's the Russian dude)
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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby Lordo » Sat Apr 15, 2023 12:34 am

Kikapu wrote:
Londonrake wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/13/pentagon-leaks-og-source-military-base-discord-report

.


I think the guy who stole the the files and leaked them is the same guy on the sail boat who free dived/dove and blew up the Nord Stream 2. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Only a sucker born every minute who would buy into such BS reporting as above. :wink:

Here, watch this!



No no no leave LR alone. He was very happy in his deluded mind about the how nice the yanks are.

They love peace, a piece of everything.
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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby Lordo » Sat Apr 15, 2023 1:31 pm

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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby Londonrake » Sat Apr 15, 2023 6:31 pm

Lordo wrote:No no no leave LR alone. He was very happy in his deluded mind about the how nice the yanks are.


You've often misrepresented me in here. Unfounded conjecture. Virtually all of it entirely wrong. In examples like this, a routine attempt at ingratiating yourself.

Despite your being careful to say the "right" things (well, sort of) in the right place, no matter their often being in direct contradiction to your views in other threads, I would hope people can see through it.

Personally, I find myself often infected with a malady by you. "Exhaustipation" (adj) too tired to give a shit.
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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby Londonrake » Sat Apr 15, 2023 7:39 pm

Kikapu wrote:I will keep my response short and sweet.

Apples and Oranges! :lol:

I hate to state the obvious but, Finland‘s NATO membership has far far less value to the alliance or a threat to Russia than Ukraine’s NATO membership would by far. Bring on Sweden too! Just look at the geography to see the differences. Finland was never a threat to Russia before as a NATO member or will it be after. Same with Russia against Finland. In chess, that would be called a “stalemate”.

You can not compare NATO Ukraine controlling Crimea and the Sea of Azov to the Baltic Sea becoming a “NATO Lake”. Turkey is a NATO member and Russian commercial and military ships pass through problem free through the Bosporus Straits and the same will be at “NATO Lake” in the Baltic Sea. Who is going to stop the Russian sea traffic in this area? I’m sorry, I didn’t hear. Say it again please! :wink:


AFAIK, ne're has the phrase "I see what you mean" been uttered (by any side) on the hallowed pages of this forum. :D

At the risk of being rebuked for repetition. One of the principle reasons given by Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine was to stop NATO's relentless expansion. Finland and ............... I am assuming here...........Sweden's accession significantly add to the organisations military power and geographic dominance of Russia.

Although you downplay the events, what has happened as a consequence of the invasion of Ukraine, wrt NATO expanding, is nothing short of a strategic disaster for Russia and the epitome of "unintended consequences".

You're view that "pointing" some nuclear missiles at Finland negates the situation doesn't hold water - for reasons stated. It's an attempt at flippant dismissal of the stark realities.


Wrt the Baltic the following shows just how drastically the area will have changed strategically with Sweden and Finland in NATO. Russia's Baltic fleet will be completely bottled up. St Petersburgh a stones throw away and Kaliningrad even more isolated.

Baltic.jpg


The rest of your post seems extraneous but as you point out Turkey - whatever they are under Erdogan these days - does have the capability to easily shut out the Russian Black Sea fleet from access to the Med and beyond.



In an earlier post I made the point the tone in this thread tends to quickly descend to the sarcastic/piss taking level. Making any civilised discussion impossible.

Examples here?

"I think the guy who stole the the files and leaked them is the same guy on the sail boat who free dived/dove and blew up the Nord Stream 2. :lol: :lol: :lol: "

"Only a sucker born every minute who would buy into such BS reporting as above"

Whatever your views on the story currently unfolding about the classified docs affair you only have to listen to Larry Johnson's lead-in comments to realise the slant of what you're looking at.

It's also worth bearing in mind that Bradley (sorry Chelsea) Manning was a mere Specialist (basically a Private soldier) who surreptitiously downloaded about 750,000 classified documents which he subsequently released to form the basis of Assange's Wickileaks exposures. Similarly, Snowden was fundamentally a lowly IT Consultant.
Last edited by Londonrake on Sat Apr 15, 2023 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukrainian Issue

Postby repulsewarrior » Sat Apr 15, 2023 8:14 pm

https://www.voanews.com/a/china-vows-no ... 50288.html

...includes video. China may have a limitless friendship with Russia, but she still takes care of herself.
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