Londonrake wrote:I admire your optimism Paphitis but find it difficult to join in.
I suspect this war will go on for a very long time. Possibly another year and perhaps more. In part because Putin really now has no other choice. His best option seems to be to go for attrition, in the hope the West grow fatigued and subsumed in their own domestic political problems.
I can't really see how either side can win. In a substantial sense.
Clearly, Putin's initial view that Russia could take Ukraine, fairly effortlessly and in a matter of days, has long gone. Conversely, I don't see how the Ukrainians can drive the Russian army out of all their territory.
Obviously, neither side are interested in negotiating the matter at the moment. The Chinese effort is a patent feint and it seems to me the forum will continue to be a platform for sharing various views/links between Russian supporters and - of course, during the breaks - attacking your posts.
Hi LR,
hope you are well. I think it is time for the most pessimistic to start feeling optimistic. I remember that I was among the most optimistic even before the war started. Even leaders of NATO countries and the POTUS back then believed Ukraine will last 7 to 10 days at best. The Ukrainians were written off. I always knew and believed the Ukrainians had fight in them, and that even if Kyiv fell, Ukrainians would have adopted more unconventional guerilla warfare tactics and that Ruzzia would not be able to counter such an insurgency. It would be a bloodbath lasting many years.
Now, all of NATO and the US have been proven wrong and all now believe Ukraine is winning the war and will win comprehensively.
Aid in all its forms has exceeded 70 Billion from the US. And Aid from the EU is around $55 billion. Then you have all the aid from Japan, South Korea and Australia and of course some other countries which is also quite substantial. Everyone is pitching in to help.
At the start of the war, Ruzzia claimed to have 11,000 Tanks. Well, now we have discovered that only about 6000 to 7000 were actually serviceable. Ukraine has destroyed over 3000 Tanks, and shot down 300 Ruzzian Aircraft and nearly 300 Helicopters. But let's look at the Tanks as a case point. Ruzzia only has 4000 Tanks now that are serviceable. It may be able to get an additional 3000 tanks serviceable if they cannibalize war damaged Tanks, but that is a very big if and optimistic.
Ukraine on the other hand, which was in a diabolical state when the war started, has more Tanks than the entire Ruzzian Military and many of them will be of much superior quality with the incoming Challengers, Abrams and Leopard Tanks.
The Ukrainian Military is now preparing major offensives somewhere along the front line. They have had a great deal of success in diverted Ruzzia's attention as well. Their last offensive caught Ruzzia completely ill prepared. The Ruzzians are attacking heaviliy fortified Ukrainian positions right now, like zombies. Ill-equipped soldiers with an UK, no body armour just trying to swarm the Ukrainians with shear numbers and without Mechanized support because they don't have a lot. They are being shot en-masse as they appear from the tree lines, and it is being described as attacks from drugged out and even drunk zombies. The Ruzzian soldiers know that this day is their last on planet earth apparently. But if they turn back and retreat, the belief is that they will be shot by their own.
In spring, you will see massive developments. Ukraine will be able to liberate a very large chunk of occupied territory. If they get within range of the Crimea Bridge and destroy it completely and cut of the Crimea Supply lines, it's pretty much game over. Once this happens, the penny should finally drop for Ruzzia. Support for this war is lowering in Ruzzia as well. Putlar organized a rally in a stadium and the crowd was pretty much a rent a crowd from the Ruzzian Public Service. They were handed out flags to wave. Even before the show finished, thousands of them were leaving and thousands of Ruzzian Flags were thrown away in trash cans. They were forced to attend in order to keep their jobs.
My prediction is that the war will end by this time next year. And it will only end if Ukraine liberate Crimea. If Crimea is not liberated by then, then the war will go on. This is Ukraine;s opportunity now and it will not let this opportunity be missed.
Not only that but there will be developments in Moldova. This is also Moldova's opportunity to de-occupy its lands. So expect a Moldovan Invasion of the occupied lands. Also expect an invasion from Ukraine into Moldova at some point towards the end of the war to assist Moldova against the small Ruzzian garrison there. This will be a 7 to 10 day operation for real.
Everyone is over the moon with the progress Ukraine has made so far. And there will be substantially more progress this year. I believe Putlar's days are numbered actually.
The west is now firmly entrenched and engaged in support of Ukraine. There is really only one way this war can end and for Europe to feel secure in the future. That will only occur with Ukraine's defeat of Ruzzia. And the support Ukraine is getting has been quite superb. And it will only ramp up with the supply of modern fighters to Ukraine - Probably F-16s. Ruzzia is in its last ditch attempt right now and they are being demolished and killed like no tomorrow.
Ruzzia's war doctrine was just link the VC in Vietnam. Swarm enemy positions akin to WW1 trench warfare where wave after wave of attacks are sent to their ugly demise.
Time to be optimistic LR.