Kikapu wrote:Paphitis wrote:Kikapu wrote:Paphitis wrote:Kikapu wrote:Paphitis, do you know what happened to the pilots you knew who had left their jobs in Australia and went to the USA on the same visa as yours a month or two ahead of your planned departure? Did they return back to Australia in the end since they would have been furloughed almost immediately around this time last year by the American airline companies they were meant to work for?
I know what happened to the ones I speak to. They have been stood down.
Not just them but thousands of pilots in general have been stood down although they are starting to redeploy them at least part time so they can at least have current crews.
I got a letter from them as well saying that my engagement with them will be postponed so affective lay stood down but have an active employment number.
US Immigration hasn’t cancelled my 3 year BISA which I thought they might do. Still in my passport and still active as far as the US is concerned.
All of us are facing stand downs as of next month, or the sack if you have pissed management off, or redundancies and par outs.
It the same world over with all the airlines, I’m afraid. Many employees collective bargainings between the Unions and the company will be cancelled and renegotiated. Next 4 years looks quite bleak for the aviation industry sorry to say.
I think your visa is good for 4 years and since you did not voluntarily withdrew your application, it may remain valid until then.
Yes well it looks like they have the upper hand for now but it’s a 2 edged sword as well as experienced pilots won’t sign their souls away. From the beginning of COVID till now, 8% have walked from the industry voluntarily. That will have a very bad impact for the airlines once COVID is over or the world gets on with COVID normal life where COVID is accepted just like the flu. In other words when we accept COVID isn’t going away and will remain with us like the common flu.
The global economy seems like it just wants to move forward.
If we go to a state of normalness with Covid, the industry will recover very quickly imho. Then the reverse is true. Chronic pilot shortage driving up salaries and conditions as the airlines compete for the remaining talent.
I agree with you for the most part, but it all depends if there will be a demand from the public to return back to the air to the pre Covid days. Just like many businesses will continue having their employees working from home from now as it is beneficial for both the employees and the companies. No need to travel for 12 hours on a plane when meetings can be done on zoom.
More holidays at home with a car or camper. Easier on the body from jet lags, airport screening hassle and no allowance on to the planes for those refusing to vaccinate, but may fly if they do the Covid test for both directions at extra cost. Time will tell where we will end up as far as air travel will go.
Airline industry is very volatile and it’s an industry that experiences high fluctuations. For instance, when there is a major global crisis such as a war that has far reaching global and geopolitical ramifications, a global economic crisis, or such as now where there is a pandemic known as Covid. Aviation suffers. People travel less when their is a hint of any security risk, there is a down turn or a pandemic. Holidays are discretionary spending.
It’s all part of the cycle. But I’ve never seen anything like this before.
When Covid either goes away or is controlled to some extent by the vaccination process, demand for travel will naturally recover. The desire to travel never goes away for most people. If people have job security and earning money and able to save for their vacation, they will travel.
To be fair, I don’t think it’s the same thing as working from home. Travel, recreational and business will rebound but will be limited by the industries ability to service the demand. It may not be possible to cater for the demand as putting pilots back on the line isn’t a straight forward process. It’s not like a truck driver or something like it where a truckie can just get back in the seat. Pilots need recurrence training to meet the legislated minimums. It isn’t easy or logistically straight forward and there will be a significant bottleneck ramping up services and getting mothballed planes sitting in the desert airworthy again. These will be the issues over the next year or so that will need to be addressed. It can take up to 2 years to get through those bottlenecks. Not a short term thing at all and it’s very expensive as well.
But airlines are very aware of these issues and are also showing a lot of restraint and forward planning. Hence will companies are introducing rotating rosters. 2 weeks on and 2 weeks off. Keeping as many pilots flying and rotating their fleet more and more.
This is my prediction.
Covid will be with us for years. Most of us will get vaccinated eventually. But we can still get Covid. But hopefully with less symptoms that will be grave for us. Some people however will still die, but hopefully much fewer people because of the vaccination programs. Then, hopefully, we are in a state of normalness where Covid is accepted.
When we arrive at that point, we will all start traveling. People will get more confident and desire that holiday in the Greek Islands or Caribbean.
Of course this also means that over the next 20 odd years, we might all have had Covid at least once in our lives. Hopefully this along with the vaccinations allows our bodies to fight this bug as well. But like MERS and SARS, this isn’t going away.
In effect, in a year or so, maybe 2 years tops, everything will be opened up. Travel, business. Basically the American model will be global with Covid running rampant but among the vaccinated populace and hopefully 99.8% being a symptomatic with nothing more than a runny nose and very few deaths which may still occur among the very frail.
