Cyprus-Forum.com

[Paphitis]

These days, countries like France and Britain have the technology to observe the Turkish skipper picking his nose from space, and grandpa here is wondering how they’re gonna hit the right target!

No, they don’t. And, I’m not “Wondering” how you hit the right target. Hitting one’s the easier bit. Identifying one correctly’s a tad more difficult. Even with synthetic aperture or pulse compression radar, unless you can tie it in with a positive ESM ident (radar intercept specific to ship type) and fix, or of course visual confirmation, it still comes down to informed guess work.

Cheers there, anyway.

Hello? Ever heard of global positioning systems, ever heard of call signs, ever heard of the myriads of technologies used for target identification and acquisition?

The likes of Britain or France could turn Turkey’s 50 odd naval ships into coral reefs within a week if they wanted to…

Idiotic Erdo doesn’t seem to understand that they’re like two leagues above him in technology!

It;'s identifying the target that is the issue. Yes, a civilian shit can be hit.

It's happened before, even with American Ships equipped with AEGIS.the USS Vincennes, shot down an Iranian Airliner. They mistook it for an F-14 they claimed. I don't know where the Iranians got the parts to get them flight-worthy at the time.

Firing an Exocet, or a Harpoon will probably give a very small percentage chance of it hitting it's target. A modern warship isn't defenseless with their targeting systems, Missile defense, and Phalanx which just fires a wall of metal in front of the missile.

But if there are 4 or 5 missiles fired, from different surface combatants, or from the air, then the odds increase substantially.

Now imagine a battle group of 5, 10, 15 or 30 ships surrounding an Aircraft carrier. Let's most of these ships are equipped with AEGIS. Chances of an Exocet or anything hitting them is pretty remote.

The same principle applies when there are a group of let's say 6 Turkish Frigates or 6 Greek Frigates. Each ship has its defenses and tracking systems.

The advantage the Exocet has is that it travels at a high speed and just skims the surface of the water before hitting the ship below the waterline. The missile defense on the ship are great for missiles coming in from an altitude with radar tracking, but less effective against low flying missiles.

Yes, it's the same as harpoon. A modern ship will pick it up, track it and start engaging it from a fair distance. The final line of defence is the Phalanx which is almost guaranteed to get it.

[Londonrake]

Paphitis.

You seem to have misunderstood. I’m not defending Turkey. Quite the opposite. I just chipped in to say that the idea of launching missiles at some radar contacts 100 miles “over there” is really a non-starter for a couple of reasons. The consequences of such an action would speak for themselves. Loudly. Which is why it’s not going to happen.

I’ve no idea how this will all pan out. Just like everyone doesn’t I imagine. I have been surprised at how low key the situation seems to be held here. It tends to pop up at the bottom of page 2, after half a dozen COVID articles. I haven’t myself seen any reports in the Cyprus media of the “accidents” which have occurred.

I don’t think (and certainly hope) there will be an outburst of conflict between Greece and Turkey but the potential consequences of such for all of us living here are pretty sobering.

So, how’s the weather down there?


I wouldn’t get hung up on the Exocet. If you’re a matelot there are far worse things that can ruin your day around now.

[Paphitis]

On the aspect that France won't act should anything escalate into fully blown warfare.

That is a possibility - France or any country for that matter may not lift a finger.

But it could. Why would they? Well look at the situation from EU eyes. France being the major power broker for the EU.

let's Turkey invades Greek islands. Let's say they take control of kastelorizo. Turkey, has now violated the territorial integrity of an EU country. It's an unacceptable situation for the EU.

Plus there is the wider impact to French Interests in Libya. So we could be surprised and France could act. At the very least there will be massive sanctions against Turkey.

So I'm not really sure what will happen.

Greece however, must always presume all the worst case scenarios. Such as France not lifting a finger. And basically prepare to defend itself. Start with about 5000 troops on kastelorizo. Might seem insignificant to you all, but I think this is Turkey's trophy.

make no mistake about it. Turkey has long term goals of annexing Greek islands. They will succeed eventually, if Greece maintains the politics of the past.

[Paphitis]

Paphitis.

You seem to have misunderstood. I’m not defending Turkey. Quite the opposite. I just chipped in to say that the idea of launching missiles at some radar contacts 100 miles “over there” is really a non-starter for a couple of reasons. The consequences of such an action would speak for themselves. Loudly. Which is why it’s not going to happen.

I’ve no idea how this will all pan out. Just like everyone doesn’t I imagine. I have been surprised at how low key the situation seems to be held here. It tends to pop up at the bottom of page 2, after half a dozen COVID articles. I haven’t myself seen any reports in the Cyprus media of the “accidents” which have occurred.

I don’t think (and certainly hope) there will be an outburst of conflict between Greece and Turkey but the potential consequences of such for all of us living here are pretty sobering.

So, how’s the weather down there?


I wouldn’t get hung up on the Exocet. If you’re a matelot there are far worse things that can ruin your day around now.

Not accusing you of defending Turkey. I know you are in Cyprus corner. that is your home now as well.

Yes I take your point about launching missiles 100 miles away. It isn't as simple as that.

Yes I am sure that should a conflict occur, you guys in Cyprus will be in an awful and fairly dangerous predicament. I understand that.

But do you understand the consequences for Cyprus should Greece cower? Not just for Cyprus but for Greece itself.

I'll tell you what will happen. Turkey will continue to make illegal claims in our EEZs. They will threaten Greece with invading some islands, like kastelorizo for instance. It may instigate it in fact. The economic impact for Greece and Cyprus will be in the trillions (Oil and Gas).

I say this because I don't see Turkey backing down. It won't back down because Turkey has been trained to expect Greece to back-peddle. Every time we back down, both Greece and Cyprus lose.

Now forget for a second that you are a citizen of Cyprus and the ramifications of war for you. Place yourself in the shoes of Mitsotakis. What would you do?

I've been watching developments in Cyprus and Greece for the last 30 odd years. I have never seen it like it is today. I don't want to scare you, but Greece and turkey are on the brink.

You as a Brit however, will probably end up on an outbound Galaxy from Akrotiri. Robin Hood will have to wait to be picked up by a Russian submarine.

remember, all Turkey has to do is take over Kastelorizo. All Greece is doing is defending it's interests and islands from an outside aggressor.

[Londonrake]

Of course, I hope you're wrong. All we can do is watch, hope and pray. If that doesn't sound too pious.

As if the freakin' virus wasn't enough for everyone.

Anyway, I'm dusting off my "Thank you for your valuable service" valedictory letter from the Stn Cdr Akrotiri. Just in case.

Although, just about everything I worked for all those years is right here of course.

[Paphitis]

Of course, I hope you're wrong. All we can do is watch, hope and pray. If that doesn't sound too pious.

As if the freakin' virus wasn't enough for everyone.

Anyway, I'm dusting off my "Thank you for your valuable service" valedictory letter from the Stn Cdr Akrotiri. Just in case.

Although, just about everything I worked for all those years is right here of course.

You can be as pious as your like.

I know what you mean. but that places you in the same boat as all Cypriots. I am certain, you won't lose your life belongings and in all likelihood, Cyprus should be ok as i doubt Turkey will do anything there. But again, if you were in big Nick's shoes, you must presume the worst. The worst case scenario of course is Attila 3.

I have family in Cyprus. I don't want to see anything happen to them. Don't want to see anything happen to any Cypriots, or the Brits living in Cyprus including yourself.

And we all have financial interests in Cyprus. All of us here in Australia have something in Cyprus. Our biggest concern however will be with our relatives.

In 1974, when Turkey invaded Cyprus (I'm not old enough to have lived it btw), the UK evacuated Brits from the island. I would presume the same thing will happen.

But again, you keep saying you hope nothing happens. I can understand this mind you so no problems there. But, from our perspective, when nothing happens we end up paying for the bride and suffering. Turkey gains another small step and it won't bode well.

The biggest conflict between Greece and Turkey I was witness to was the Imia Crisis. I was in Athens at the time. It ended up being an anti climax and everyone breathed a sigh of relief. But Greece ended up losing another small step. Turkey managed to put a question mark over the rocky outcrop of Imia. The result may not be apparent to most, but Turkey manages to place it's status in a grey zone. And empower herself to lay claim over Greek territorial waters and EEZ and harass fishing vessels.

Which brings us back to Kastelorizo. If Turkey takes this island, the ramifications are extremely dire. It's not just about taking a small insignificant island. It's about laying claim over the EEZ area between Cyprus and Greece. Both Cyprus and Greece will no longer share an EEZ boundary. If there are hydrocarbons in the area, then it's literally an economic and strategic disaster for both Greece and Cyprus.

So what I am saying is this. Greece has a right to defend it's islands, EEZ and its interests. What is at stake is definitely something to go to war over if necessary. There can be no back down by Greece from its resolve to defend itself. that can only be a disaster. If Turkey backs down because it sees some reason at long last, then that is obviously very welcomed. It probably won't however, especially if Greece loses its resolve. If Greece doesn't lose it's resolve, then a Turkish back down is more possible.

[Oceanside50]

Other then bringing in the search vessel Oru Reis and Then having it pushed into Cyprus’s EEZ and lots of rhetoric to hide their embarrassment on how the Greek navy and air force played with them for three weeks, what have the Turks done? Nothing other then bringing in a European power , France.

[Maximus]

Well, a lot of sailors would die for a start. There’s no way back from that. It would mean war and with it a very large number of people dying.

I’m not suggesting you’re one Kicks but it’s struck me over the years there are a lot of keyboard warriors in forums who clearly lust after a major conflict. As long as it doesn’t affect them and their comfortable lives that is. Which it most certainly would of course. Sad people, the lot of them.

France are going to disappoint you I’m afraid. The most obvious trigger for conflict is some sort of mistake/misunderstanding in the heat of a moment which, IMHO, is entirely within the realm of possibility, given what’s currently going on.

My views on the realities of naval warfare are valid. Despite all the gung-ho It isn’t as simple as enunciated in this thread.

Out of curiosity. I would like you to place yourself in Greek or Cypriot shoes.

Turkey has been threatening us for decades, but in the last 2 years, the threats have become more serious.

Turkey is making illegal claims on the EEZs of both countries. The claims are so ridiculous and incoherent. Turkey is making claims as far reaching as south of Crete between Greece and Libya. And let's not forget the legacy of the continued occupation which you can see for yourself.

They are drilling in the Cyprus and Greek EEZ.

The situation is so delicate. If Greece should lose just the island of Kastelorizo, Turkey has won. They would drive a wedge between the Greek and Cypriot EEZ. And then they will claim a EEZ for the island of Kasteloriso to boot, despite saying Greek islands can't do the same.

Turkey, has made claims against the entire Dodecanese islands. It really is absurd.

So what do you propose Greece do? Try and commence a dialogue or prepare for a war which to me seems inevitable now?

A Dialogue isn't going to solve anything. Greece would risk losing something and Turkey is further emboldened to make more insane claims. We have seen this from the Turks over many decades. Their pattern of behavior is consistent.

What do I think is going to happen. I think Turkey is going to invade kastelorizo. It's a small island with a population of 500 people. And yet, it is of immense strategic importance.

But it wont change anything.

If Turkey claims that this islet isnt entitled to an EEZ then why would it be entitled to one while under Turkish occupation. Never mind that it wont be recognized as Turkish territory even if they do invade it. Just like the "TRNC".

I dont think they realize what is brewing.

Russia is starting to get impatient with Turkeys occupation in idlib. They are supposed to be working together to clear the area of terrorists and juhadists. Then it is supposed to return back to the Syrian regime. But Endorgan is going on like its his to keep now. a delegation of Syrian Kurds, that Turkey recognizes as having links to the PKK were being hosted in Moscow Today. I wonder what they were talking about and Egypt deployed troops to Syria some weeks ago.

Honestly, its not looking good for Endorgan's regime.

Multiple conflicts on many fronts, a crumbling economy, losing popularity, EU sanctions, crime, corruption and money laundering. Have I forgotten something?

He is about to go through the meat grinder and take Turkey with him.

[Paphitis]

There have been some amazing developments between Greece, France and Egypt.

Greece has signed a deal to purchase 10 of the latest version Rafale yet to be built. France has also gifted an additional 8 from its Air Force.

Egypt has an additional 30 Rafale on order plus some Gowind Corvettes.

Egypt has agreed to loan Greece 10 of its own Rafale as a stop gap until the 10 on order arrive in Greece. Egypt has also agreed for Greece to get its Rafales before they do.

That is amazing cooperation from France and Egypt. Real allies.

[Paphitis]

Well, a lot of sailors would die for a start. There’s no way back from that. It would mean war and with it a very large number of people dying.

I’m not suggesting you’re one Kicks but it’s struck me over the years there are a lot of keyboard warriors in forums who clearly lust after a major conflict. As long as it doesn’t affect them and their comfortable lives that is. Which it most certainly would of course. Sad people, the lot of them.

France are going to disappoint you I’m afraid. The most obvious trigger for conflict is some sort of mistake/misunderstanding in the heat of a moment which, IMHO, is entirely within the realm of possibility, given what’s currently going on.

My views on the realities of naval warfare are valid. Despite all the gung-ho It isn’t as simple as enunciated in this thread.

Out of curiosity. I would like you to place yourself in Greek or Cypriot shoes.

Turkey has been threatening us for decades, but in the last 2 years, the threats have become more serious.

Turkey is making illegal claims on the EEZs of both countries. The claims are so ridiculous and incoherent. Turkey is making claims as far reaching as south of Crete between Greece and Libya. And let's not forget the legacy of the continued occupation which you can see for yourself.

They are drilling in the Cyprus and Greek EEZ.

The situation is so delicate. If Greece should lose just the island of Kastelorizo, Turkey has won. They would drive a wedge between the Greek and Cypriot EEZ. And then they will claim a EEZ for the island of Kasteloriso to boot, despite saying Greek islands can't do the same.

Turkey, has made claims against the entire Dodecanese islands. It really is absurd.

So what do you propose Greece do? Try and commence a dialogue or prepare for a war which to me seems inevitable now?

A Dialogue isn't going to solve anything. Greece would risk losing something and Turkey is further emboldened to make more insane claims. We have seen this from the Turks over many decades. Their pattern of behavior is consistent.

What do I think is going to happen. I think Turkey is going to invade kastelorizo. It's a small island with a population of 500 people. And yet, it is of immense strategic importance.

But it wont change anything.

If Turkey claims that this islet isnt entitled to an EEZ then why would it be entitled to one while under Turkish occupation. Never mind that it wont be recognized as Turkish territory even if they do invade it. Just like the "TRNC".

I dont think they realize what is brewing.

Russia is starting to get impatient with Turkeys occupation in idlib. They are supposed to be working together to clear the area of terrorists and juhadists. Then it is supposed to return back to the Syrian regime. But Endorgan is going on like its his to keep now. a delegation of Syrian Kurds, that Turkey recognizes as having links to the PKK were being hosted in Moscow Today. I wonder what they were talking about and Egypt deployed troops to Syria some weeks ago.

Honestly, its not looking good for Endorgan's regime.

Multiple conflicts on many fronts, a crumbling economy, losing popularity, EU sanctions, crime, corruption and money laundering. Have I forgotten something?

He is about to go through the meat grinder and take Turkey with him.

Don’t worry Max! If Turkey manages to take Kastelotizo, then it’s EEZ will suddenly apply. You will never see logic from the Turks. What’s their’s is their’s and what’s ours is their’s too.