Cyprus-Forum.com

[Maximus]

Yes, I agree, erdogan is not part of the solution, lower interest rates are still coming inflation is still there.

We are going to have to see how it plays out but from a purely technical perspective,

The currency needed a correction, the depreciation has been so relentless.

The markets found their catalyst today, and it buys Turks some breathing room but not much.

[Maximus]

well not wanting to brag I bought some TL this morning around 9am when it first peaked over 24 to the pound. Not much, just under a £200. Kind of as a punt expecting a 'usual' intervention buying TL with swapped USD and maybe a drop back to just under 23. Just saw it was 17.8 and sold back. Made a quick £40 something.

revo.JPG

Screenshot from my revolut account.

Nice one,

[Maximus]

For anyone who is interested,

The market was very inefficient and liquidity was thin as the lira came crashing down. Which resulted in lots of price gaps being created at higher prices.

With this announcement as the backdrop and as the catalyst, the price is reversing course to fill those gaps and pick up any stranded orders at higher prices.

This is efficient market theory in action and how a fair market is created. Backwards and forward, matching liquidity.

But now that the market has done that at a much faster pace and even more inefficiently on the way up as it did on the way down, it is very likely that the Lira will depreciate again. This time a lot slower.

My bet is that the Lira will continue to depreciate. This is a bargain "sell the lira" price. Because the fundamentals haven't really changed. Erdogan has just committed the state to absorbing inflation and currency devaluation to alleviate some of the burden from the citizens and business's.

As the state should but he is trying to control the economy in such an experimental and unconventional way that he is just doing a "Nero"; fiddling while Turkey burns.

[erolz66]

well not wanting to brag I bought some TL this morning around 9am when it first peaked over 24 to the pound. Not much, just under a £200. Kind of as a punt expecting a 'usual' intervention buying TL with swapped USD and maybe a drop back to just under 23. Just saw it was 17.8 and sold back. Made a quick £40 something.

revo.JPG

Screenshot from my revolut account.

Nice one,

Thanks. My memory was not quite correct. I bought when it had just peaked over 23 , not 24 as I said before hoping for maybe a lira pull back before a new high. Actual rate for buy after revolut 'margin' on high volatility currency was TL22.8997 to pound. Until a couple of hours ago I had it down as a bad call and was just gonna spend off the TL as quick as possible. My sell back after revolut margin was tl18.3443 to pound.

That did fell like a crypto trade.

[Maximus]

That did fell like a crypto trade.

I bet it did, the last time I saw something to that extreme for a fiat currency was Brexit and the pound tanked 20 cents to the Dollar in a matter of hours after the referendum.

That was unprecedented for the GBP but a $7 appreciation for the lira in a matter of hours is a new record for the currency.

Anyone buying or selling lira near the bottom must have been shitting their pants.

[erolz66]

How does insider trading work with stuff like this ?

Turkey / Erdogan knows what it is going to do and when. Not really checked the headlines but did Erdogan not prime the pump through the day with 'aggressive' comments about not raising interests rates and continuing to cut them. TL drops more and more. Then bang - but its a bang caused by and to the timing of Erdogan.

Max are you not worried he / Turkey made a quick buck in the last 24 hours like the one I lucked in to ? Hope that thought has not spoiled your evening any in this festive period.

Merry Xmas all.

[Maximus]

How does insider trading work with stuff like this ?

Turkey / Erdogan knows what it is going to do and when. Not really checked the headlines but did Erdogan not prime the pump through the day with 'aggressive' comments about not raising interests rates and continuing to cut them. TL drops more and more. Then bang - but its a bang caused by and to the timing of Erdogan.

Max are you not worried he / Turkey made a quick buck in the last 24 hours like the one I lucked in to ? Hope that thought has not spoiled your evening any in this festive period.

Merry Xmas all.

Well, that is how insider trading works and you have probably cottoned on to something I didnt consider until now.

I am not sure why I should be worried though, but Turks should because erdo is a big fraud. He should be behind bars.

[Kikapu]

How does insider trading work with stuff like this ?

Turkey / Erdogan knows what it is going to do and when. Not really checked the headlines but did Erdogan not prime the pump through the day with 'aggressive' comments about not raising interests rates and continuing to cut them. TL drops more and more. Then bang - but its a bang caused by and to the timing of Erdogan.

Max are you not worried he / Turkey made a quick buck in the last 24 hours like the one I lucked in to ? Hope that thought has not spoiled your evening any in this festive period.

Merry Xmas all.

Yes, Erdogan and the gang/Turkey made a killing today with "insider trading" but at the cost of all those Turks who had bought foreign currencies with their TL the last few weeks. So many Turks royally got screwed today. Now the same people have no choice but to hold onto their foreign currencies unless it is urgent for them to sell to survive.

[erolz66]

How does insider trading work with stuff like this ?

Turkey / Erdogan knows what it is going to do and when. Not really checked the headlines but did Erdogan not prime the pump through the day with 'aggressive' comments about not raising interests rates and continuing to cut them. TL drops more and more. Then bang - but its a bang caused by and to the timing of Erdogan.

Max are you not worried he / Turkey made a quick buck in the last 24 hours like the one I lucked in to ? Hope that thought has not spoiled your evening any in this festive period.

Merry Xmas all.

Well, that is how insider trading works and you have probably cottoned on to something I didnt consider until now.

I am not sure why I should be worried though, but Turks should because erdo is a big fraud. He should be behind bars.

It just occurred to me. When I said 'hope that thought has not spoiled your evening any in this festive period' I did so almost entirely in the sense that to some degree more than none and in a way that is more than negligible it has upset my festive period. If he has or even if he can make out he has 'played the markets' that will be spun out to his 'core' and milked for all it's worth. None of that makes me happy in any way , if it turns out to be the case.

[Maximus]

How does insider trading work with stuff like this ?

Turkey / Erdogan knows what it is going to do and when. Not really checked the headlines but did Erdogan not prime the pump through the day with 'aggressive' comments about not raising interests rates and continuing to cut them. TL drops more and more. Then bang - but its a bang caused by and to the timing of Erdogan.

Max are you not worried he / Turkey made a quick buck in the last 24 hours like the one I lucked in to ? Hope that thought has not spoiled your evening any in this festive period.

Merry Xmas all.

Yes, Erdogan and the gang/Turkey made a killing today with "insider trading" but at the cost of all those Turks who had bought foreign currencies with their TL the last few weeks. So many Turks royally got screwed today. Now the same people have no choice but to hold onto their foreign currencies unless it is urgent for them to sell to survive.

Yes, they are trapped holding the dirty smelly bag that erdo just crapped in.

They probably got screwed in both directions. losing money on the way down and then losing now because they sold their TL at higher prices.