Cyprus-Forum.com

[Maximus]

Meximus deserves credit for predicting all this almost 2 years ago.
Congrats Max.
Now, where will all this end, to simple regime change, then back to normal as before via American help or to Turkey splitting in 7 again because America so decided, remains to be seen.

Cheers and I really dont know about where it will end.

Basically, Turkey is a rogue failed state and on the economic front clearly, its not looking good.

She has been given many opportunities, but took the aggressive, adversarial, protagonist approach with friendly countries that dont want that on their doorstep.

Of course they see it and dont like it but all it will take is for erdo's regime to start a civil war and things will never be the same for the state of Turkey.

[Maximus]

when Cyprus had the haircut, it all happened very quickly.

I remember it quite well. One minute it was business as usual, the next, foreign journalist were all over the island reporting on the banking crisis and then people's money evaporated. but by and large, things were contained because the complacent Christofias government was removed and the new authorities acted quickly.

Erdo is lying through his teeth and the scale of misinformation, corruption and criminality of his government runs deep. He is probably afraid to give up his grip on power because he runs the risk of a public hanging. So his priority is not the best interests of his citizens. it's to save his neck and remain in power. The people can all starve as far as he is concerned, he will keep squeezing everyone to stay in power. He did it with the central banks FX reserves, he did it with the "under the mattress gold", now he is doing it with business's money. As long as he is in power he thinks he can get away with it and be immune from retribution.

[Kikapu]

This is the next shoe to fall off and it is not going to be pretty or cheap.

U.S. court turns down latest Halkbank appeal paving way for prosecution
Dec 16 2021 01:43 Gmt+3
Last Updated On: Dec 17 2021 12:40

https://ahvalnews.com/halkbank-case/us- ... rosecution

All objections for the US courts to proceed has been exhausted with appeals, so now it is going to be showdown. I can see Halkbank closing it’s doors once the verdict comes in. Halkbank which is part owned by Turkey’s Wealth Funds tried to get out of being taken to court claiming that the bank is a sovereign entity of Turkey. The US courts said, No way Jose you are going to get away with that excuse. But by Halkbank using this excuse as a “Get out of Jail” card, they may have dug themselves a big hole.

Halkbank’s chief was sent to jail for year or two recently when Reza Zarrab has become a star witness to the USA, the man who knows where all the skeletons are buried. He did about $20 Billion transactions with Iran on Turkey’s behalf, behind US’s back to get around the sanctions imposed on Iran. My guess is, Halkbank will be fined $20 Billion dollars for their illegal actions and Reza Zarrab will be there to make it happen.

Remember how Erdogan keeps asking for the $1 Billion+ Turkey had made a deposit to be in the F-35 fighter jet program, but has been kicked out without the deposit being returned. Well, I believe the US will use that money as part of the settlement/fine against Halkbank since it belongs to Turkey’s Wealth Fund. Either way, that deposit is toast.

[Maximus]

This is the next shoe to fall off and it is not going to be pretty or cheap. I can see Halkbank closing it’s doors once the verdict comes in..

$20 billion fine?

Their balance sheet shows much less than that in net assets.

When word hits the street, there will be a run on the bank.

Anyone who has money in there better get it out quickly.

[Kikapu]

This is the next shoe to fall off and it is not going to be pretty or cheap. I can see Halkbank closing it’s doors once the verdict comes in..

$20 billion fine?

Their balance sheet shows much less than that in net assets.

When word hits the street, there will be a run on the bank.

Anyone who has money in there better get it out quickly.

UBS, a Swiss Bank was fined about $5 Billion by the USA for helping wealthy Americans hide their money in Europe few years ago, which was a settlement and not a trial.

[Pyrpolizer]

Remember how Erdogan keeps asking for the $1 Billion+ Turkey had made a deposit to be in the F-35 fighter jet program, but has been kicked out without the deposit being returned. Well, I believe the US will use that money as part of the settlement/fine against Halkbank since it belongs to Turkey’s Wealth Fund. Either way, that deposit is toast.

Oh, Oh... in fact I was wondering about that 1+ billion.
From what you said it looks Halkbank may not have enough assets to pay that 20b fine, hence the 1b deposit for the F-35 will be used to cover part of the fine. So assuming there will still be something due, let's say 5b, how's the US government get that money?
Ceasing more Turkish assets in the US, and if yes which?

Sorry to bother you with questions Kikapu, please have mercy on my ignorance.

[Maximus]

Remember how Erdogan keeps asking for the $1 Billion+ Turkey had made a deposit to be in the F-35 fighter jet program, but has been kicked out without the deposit being returned. Well, I believe the US will use that money as part of the settlement/fine against Halkbank since it belongs to Turkey’s Wealth Fund. Either way, that deposit is toast.

Oh, Oh... in fact I was wondering about that 1+ billion.
From what you said it looks Halkbank may not have enough assets to pay that 20b fine, hence the 1b deposit for the F-35 will be used to cover part of the fine. So assuming there will still be something due, let's say 5b, how's the US government get that money?
Ceasing more Turkish assets in the US, and if yes which?

Sorry to bother you with questions Kikapu, please have mercy on my ignorance.

Raise tariffs on steel, like Trump did and that sent the lira spinning.

[Pyrpolizer]

Meximus deserves credit for predicting all this almost 2 years ago.
Congrats Max.
Now, where will all this end, to simple regime change, then back to normal as before via American help or to Turkey splitting in 7 again because America so decided, remains to be seen.

Cheers and I really dont know about where it will end.

Basically, Turkey is a rogue failed state and on the economic front clearly, its not looking good.

She has been given many opportunities, but took the aggressive, adversarial, protagonist approach with friendly countries that dont want that on their doorstep.

Of course they see it and dont like it but all it will take is for erdo's regime to start a civil war and things will never be the same for the state of Turkey.

Could you please elaborate on the civil war issue?
How is it going to start? Will Erdogan force business to sell below cost? How long can this last, maybe a month before the market runs out of goods?

[Pyrpolizer]

Remember how Erdogan keeps asking for the $1 Billion+ Turkey had made a deposit to be in the F-35 fighter jet program, but has been kicked out without the deposit being returned. Well, I believe the US will use that money as part of the settlement/fine against Halkbank since it belongs to Turkey’s Wealth Fund. Either way, that deposit is toast.

Oh, Oh... in fact I was wondering about that 1+ billion.
From what you said it looks Halkbank may not have enough assets to pay that 20b fine, hence the 1b deposit for the F-35 will be used to cover part of the fine. So assuming there will still be something due, let's say 5b, how's the US government get that money?
Ceasing more Turkish assets in the US, and if yes which?

Sorry to bother you with questions Kikapu, please have mercy on my ignorance.

Raise tariffs on steel, like Trump did and that sent the lira spinning.

Come on I may not know much of economics, but I do know something. This would only reduce Turkey's exports, whereas the US additional earnings from the tariffs will be paid by US firms/American consumers...
No I don't think that will be the way, sorry.

[Maximus]

Meximus deserves credit for predicting all this almost 2 years ago.
Congrats Max.
Now, where will all this end, to simple regime change, then back to normal as before via American help or to Turkey splitting in 7 again because America so decided, remains to be seen.

Cheers and I really dont know about where it will end.

Basically, Turkey is a rogue failed state and on the economic front clearly, its not looking good.

She has been given many opportunities, but took the aggressive, adversarial, protagonist approach with friendly countries that dont want that on their doorstep.

Of course they see it and dont like it but all it will take is for erdo's regime to start a civil war and things will never be the same for the state of Turkey.

Could you please elaborate on the civil war issue?
How is it going to start? Will Erdogan force business to sell below cost? How long can this last, maybe a month before the market runs out of goods?

Well, i am not saying that there will be a civil war but the way things are going, Im not optimistic that erdo will just leave office and people can only take so much.

It is just my opinion that he will squeeze and bleed society dry and try to remain in power at all costs to save his own neck from retribution.

He did it with the central banks FX reserves to try and support the lira, he did it by trying to get people to hand in their gold reserves, now he has raised the minimum wage by 50%. Who is going to pay for that? business's, that are trying to grapple with spiraling costs and customers that are barely making ends meet. Just the other day, his regime arrested people for "stock piling" and "price fixing". He expects business owners to slash profit margins "for some months" to become economic "martyr's". Basically, they die, so he can live.

Desperate people do desperate things and the cost of living is out of control for most people already. Inflation is set to skyrocket and capital controls are probably not far away. Forget the data, its not credible, the reality is being hidden by lies.

Erdo is only interested in saving his own neck and remaining in power, thats his best defense against retribution. If there is any form of uprising, he will squash it with brutality and probably throw the dissenters in jail. The whole situation can spiral out of control very quickly once the reality sets it, that he is the source of the problem and his regime has to go at all costs.

If Turks can fight with his regime over a Gezi park, just wait until they stand to lose everything.