Cyprus-Forum.com

[cyprusgrump]

‘There’s no direct evidence that the lockdowns are working’

For example, we are currently in lockdown for two reasons. One is that the initial figures suggested that we were dealing with a very highly virulent disease. The World Health Organisation initially suggested that the case-fatality rate – the proportion of people diagnosed with the disease who die – would be 3.4 per cent. This is a very high number which would have caused a huge number of deaths. But as we have had gradually more and more data coming in, those percentages have been falling. In many examples, more complete data are now suggesting case-fatality rates of 0.4 per cent. My guess is that it will end up between 0.5 and 0.1 per cent, and probably nearer to the lower end of that. So if the disease isn’t as virulent as was originally thought, the number of deaths will be correspondingly lower.

[B25]

Anyone who takes the trouble to research independent sources can easily see that the world media is engaged in a perception management operation over the coronavirus that does not match the facts. Accepting this to be the case - and you are at liberty not to - what really is going on? Just one man's view, that of author Ernst Wolff, who specializes in studying the global financial system and has long warned of an impending "tsunami", interviewed here in German with English subtitles which in my view are excellent although they have used the German accronym "IWF" for "IMF". I am convinced that there are profound economic and political motives behind the way the virus is being hyped up and the measures taken around it and perhaps this man has got it worked out. Frankly, I hope he is wrong, but I am afraid.

https://youtu.be/8LYjOEib9iI

Well that was a very interesting video and I can see where he was coming from, but I have to say I lost interest once he started saying that the banks were going to expropriate us, that we need to have a couple of weeks supply of goods etc, but he doesn't want to spread panic! Hmm, If that is not spreading hysteria then I don't know what is. Poor Milti, just managed to bring his cash here and is now going to get hair cut!

Seriously, the guy never really gave any real advice other than 'Look at the bigger picture', well what does he expect the average joe bloggs to do exactly, so his take home message to me is withdraw your money from the bank, stock up food and medication and then sit tight until you can kiss your ass good bye.

I would like to see his net video (when you have it) is a few weeks time to see what has happened since he last spoke. I am also sure that there are evil powers at work here, but I am also very aware that the virus is a serious issue. If they did try to hair cut us again in Cyprus, as you know all reservist have a G3 and 500 rounds and I doubt they will sit still, lock down or no lockdown.

tbh, I am a bit more confused now that I was before I watched it although the first half did make a lot of sense. When he was asked, 'should people draw their money?' did you notice he skirted the question and went onto something else followed by ' I don't want to spread panic', ok jock pull the other one.

So, this brings me to ask for your expert advice have you withdrawn you money how are you keeping it safe, may be not a good time to sell and leave the money in real estate! No?

[Tim Drayton]

From an interview with Dr John A Lee, a recently retired professor of pathology and NHS consultant pathologist:

spiked: What problems do you see in the way figures are currently being recorded and reported?

Lee: The figures are just so unreliable. It’s very difficult to understand when you are looking at figures from different countries, and figures in isolation about things like death, what they really mean. And obviously, if we can’t understand what the figures mean, it is quite difficult to then know what we should do about them.

These figures are then fed into models of the disease and the epidemic which are being used to influence and inform public policy. But those models are only as good as their input data and the assumptions they make. And there are so many unknowns which means the models’ outputs are really quite questionable. And given that we have now got ourselves into this situation, for a variety of reasons, getting ourselves out of it using the same models and predictions is even more questionable. So we are in a very difficult situation.

For example, we are currently in lockdown for two reasons. One is that the initial figures suggested that we were dealing with a very highly virulent disease. The World Health Organisation initially suggested that the case-fatality rate – the proportion of people diagnosed with the disease who die – would be 3.4 per cent. This is a very high number which would have caused a huge number of deaths. But as we have had gradually more and more data coming in, those percentages have been falling. In many examples, more complete data are now suggesting case-fatality rates of 0.4 per cent. My guess is that it will end up between 0.5 and 0.1 per cent, and probably nearer to the lower end of that. So if the disease isn’t as virulent as was originally thought, the number of deaths will be correspondingly lower.

The second reason that we were then put into lockdown is that it was assumed that this new virus was going to rip through the population, and a very high percentage of people were going to be infected quickly. This would cause a big surge or peak of cases which healthcare systems wouldn’t be able to deal with. The lockdown is supposed to reduce that peak, to enable health systems to cope with it. We had various pictures from Italy, Spain, New York and other places showing that health systems weren’t able to cope. But of course, in lots of other places, health systems have been able to cope with it.

The real point is that there isn’t any direct evidence that what we are doing is actually affecting the peak. It is possible to make arguments that sound reasonable that a lockdown should affect the peak. And yet other places which are doing different things seem to have similarly shaped graphs. It is only an assumption that the lockdown is having a big effect on the virus spread, but this is not a known scientific fact.

As far as I can see, Sweden, despite not having anywhere near as severe a lockdown as we have had, actually has a very similar curve to ours. And Sweden’s death rate per hundred thousand people is roughly half of ours at the moment. So it is not a given that what we are doing is either working or is having all the right effects.

[B25]

But wouldn't you err, on the side of caution, rather than take the risk and not know if this situation can get out of hand. We are certainly seeing a fall here and this IS due to the lock down. Taking the example of the 26 workers at Zorpas bakery, all contracted the virus by living together, it is highly virulent and is very contagious, I know first hand as I just came through it.

[repulsewarrior]

...a lot like advertising, this epidemic.

The public must be informed, (and motivated).

How can it be done effectively, economically, and efficiently?

Just like in advertising this is the unknown; at least half of these efforts are a waste of time, but which half?

...this virus is not the flu, and it is something unknown, an overabundance of caution is a reasoned response to it.

Whether deeper conspiracies have evolved, as the opportunity has arisen, is to be expected, as well; they do not have to be directly connected, for both to be true.

[Tim Drayton]

But wouldn't you err, on the side of caution, rather than take the risk and not know if this situation can get out of hand. We are certainly seeing a fall here and this IS due to the lock down. Taking the example of the 26 workers at Zorpas bakery, all contracted the virus by living together, it is highly virulent and is very contagious, I know first hand as I just came through it.

I believe I had it in January, the "bug" I had ticked all the boxes when I read the descriptions, and it was very nasty but I recovered in ten days having no treatment or medicine but resting and going to bed very early (couldn't sleep for the coughing!). I am 63 but in good health and have never smoked. I can see how this thing would hit anybody with preexisting lung problems very hard, though. Some people are claiming this bug was doing the rounds elsewhere before it was detected in Wuhan. What about your experience? How are the 26 workers at Zorpas doing?

[Tim Drayton]

From another scientific paper just out (not yet peer reviewed):

Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20062463v1

Scientific tests show that 50-85 times more people were infected than the number of confirmed cases. This surely means that the vast number of people experience no symptoms when catching this virus, and it makes a mockery of previous case mortality rates based on case numbers involving people who present severe symptoms alone.

[Kikapu]

Few weeks ago there were several republican politicians in the US advocating to open the country for business despite the Coronavirus and that the elderly shouldn’t be selfish by wanting to live longer and at the same time, they claimed that they were ready to die to save the economy in the US. Well, I don’t see any of these motherfucker politicians dying yet as they are hiding in their basements. Yes, lets let the other guy die for the good of the nation, but not me is their thinking. These are the same fuckers who would remain in their foxholes after ordering the rest of the soldiers to charge forward.

We have had a couple of politicians get it in Australia.

Also, let's not forget, Boris had a really close call.

Australia is looking at opening the economy fully in a bout a month's time. There will still be restrictions, mainly on international travel but our local economy is about to start again with everyone going back to work, bars, pubs and restaurants opened and life starting to get back to normal.

What we found to have worked more than anything was closing our borders to international traffic and forcing international travelers, including our own citizens into isolation. And yet that wasn't enough because we were still importing the virus on luxury cruise ships, forcing drastic action. Passengers were not allowed to disembark. there were 2 ships in dock. Their Captains were arrested and charged and the Navy was sent out to sea to turn away with force 9 Ships who were refusing to turn around and head back to the last port of departure. We had a situation down here where cruise liners were being intercepted by Frigates and Destroyers and instructed to turn around at which point they had no choice, because if they wouldn't, they would be boarded by a military boarding party to arrest the Captain and take over the Ship.

No Shp wanted to come to Australia after that especially since P&O has been threatened with sanctions.

the results of these brutal measures are evident. If we did not do this, then its highly likely we would be on the exponential curve still.

Boris Johnson was very cavalier along with Trump on coronavirus earlier on and were against any lockdown, and as fate would have it, Boris got it also. I hope he will recovers fully, but his non actions then has caused thousands of deaths in the UK now and for that, I hold him responsible for their deaths. Now it is too little too late with the current lockdown in the UK other than saying perhaps, better late than never if it makes Boris sleep at nights.

Then explain France, Spain, Italy, Germany and even Switzerland.

Were they cavalier?

And what I don't get about these accusations of inaction against Trump and Boris. How can you criticize any world leader and not criticize WHO which was also cavalier and down played the situation. Why is WHO seemingly immune to criticism.

And why is Chy-na immune when they isolated Wuhan on the 23rd of January but allowed international travel to continue to the 4 corners of the globe under the watchful eye of WHO? And why did we all ignore Taiwan who were raising alarm bells very early on news years eve?

It's not quite logical to me Kikapu.

There is a big difference, Paphitis.

Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Austria and Switzerland did not dismiss the Coronavirus as being insignificant and were not against lockdown unlike Boris and Trump. It was a matter of closing the borders first then have the lockdown as there are thousands of day workers coming and going between these countries. At the time, only Iran, South Korea, China were the hot spots with Italy starting to emerge as one also. Yes, Switzerland waited about a week too long to close the border with Italy and did so as soon as Austria did. If you remember, I wrote around March 9th that I had 3 clients to meet in Zurich on March 13th from Italy, which at the time Italy was not locked down yet and was showing about 45 deaths per day. I held a meeting with the company I work for on the 9th March to cancel all clients from Italy, Iran, China and South Korea until further notice, which I did, and within 2 day, Northern Italy went into lockdown followed by the whole country. It took few more days for Switzerland to close it’s borders and declare a lockdown. In my opinion, I acted before Switzerland did. What Boris and Trump did was lose time by not taking Coronavirus seriously, which but this time, Italy was already on fire to be followed by Spain and France.

[repulsewarrior]

The government said 6,700 people died in Guayas province in the first two weeks of April, far more than the usual 1,000 deaths there in the same period.

Guayas is home to Guayaquil - the nation's largest city and the part of the country worst-hit by Covid-19.

Footage obtained by the BBC showed residents forced to store bodies in their homes for up to five days.

They said authorities had been unable to keep up with the huge rise in deaths, leaving corpses wrapped in sheets in family homes and even in the streets.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52324218

[repulsewarrior]