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[Paphitis]

Oh dear, the statistician strikes again with another whopper!

For it to show on the graph, you need to extend the X Axis and the only way that can happen is with time. So in 10 days time, and presuming the trend is maintained, Australia's graph will look like South Korea's. The other way is to look at the statistics and also look at the new cases graph (if you want a picture) which is in the same link. It shows a dramatic decline. Look again.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... australia/

As you can see, Australia definately hasn't been exponential for 6 days running now, and today it looks like it will be 7 days as they are about to record another good number. To me it shows we are IN CONTROL.

get the picture Einstein?

THE chart does not have time on either axis Einstein. You have not even understood that yet, which is all explained in the video, that you claim to agree with and 'knew already'. Keep digging.

It does in my graph I posted Einstein which depicts exponential growth as a bending upwards curve.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... australia/

The graph in the video doesn't show time on the X Axis which is also my preferred method because it depicts exponential growth as a straight line.

You really are an Einstein aren't you?

I hate to rain on anyone’s parade, but what the graphs may show for Australia’s Coronavirus numbers are meaningless unless someone can tell me with certainty that the numbers tested in the last 4 days are equal or greater than the numbers tested before the last 4 days. So, let’s have less talk on the chart’s meanings and more talk on the numbers tested.

They have reported reduction in positive test results over the last 6 days.

The detection rate has reduced from 25% down to 9% of the overall total. Before, we were doubling every 4 days, and now we are doubling every 7 days.

This has been told to us by our PM and also repeated by the Chief of The Australian Medical Association and some Premiers. They did however caution that it is still early days and they can't afford to relax any measures.

The measures are actually quite strict. Foreigners are not allowed into Australia. You can't have congregations in public above 2 people. The police are stopping people and questioning why they are on the streets. We are not on lock-down though.

My question has not been answered.

Q. Has the number of test conducted in the last 4-6 days are same numbers or greater numbers than test numbers conducted before the last 4-6 days?

Today's detection rate will apparently be a record low but the numbers are erratic depending on what is going on but in the PM's daily press release there has been a marked reduction from the previous week and they are hoping to make bigger inroads in 2 weeks time because dome of the measures I mentioned were only introduced last night and will only have an impact in 2 to 3 weeks time. They did say it's early days and that every Australian must remain cautious and do the right thing.

Today there have been only 82 cases and I have never seen that in a long time at this time. there will be another update but if they get anything below 400 new cases today, then it most certainly is a real reduction that seems to persist.

[erolz66]

It seems like every aspect of our lives is now very controlled at this point but we do have one consolation. We do not have a blanket isolation of everyone like in some countries.

The reasoning for this is that they want the economy to continue moving forward.

Not even sure what 'blanket isolation of everyone like in some countries' even means ? In SK there has not been forced isolation of everyone who has positive test. There has not been the kind of total curfews seen in some regions of Spain and Italy and nor did SK place blanket bans on people travelling from China to SK or from EU to SK, only targeted ones.

[Paphitis]

I hate to rain on anyone’s parade, but what the graphs may show for Australia’s Coronavirus numbers are meaningless unless someone can tell me with certainty that the numbers tested in the last 4 days are equal or greater than the numbers tested before the last 4 days. So, let’s have less talk on the chart’s meanings and more talk on the numbers tested.

Have you watched the youtube video RW posted yet Kikapun https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc ? Looked at and played with the interactive data analysis site that it is describing ? https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

If not I would urge you, as someone who imo is not a total donkey, to do so.

I did watch the YouTube RW posted. I was mainly commenting the 4 days of stats Paphitis was bragging that the Coronavirus cases were dropping.

I wasn't bragging. I am however very hopeful about it.

It's the first bit of good news we have had with regard to China Virus. before we were doubling every 4 days and now we are doubling every 7 days. I think I will take it and hope they can keep that trend up and delay the doubling even further.

2 weeks ago, Australians seemed a bit aloof, almost irresponsible but now things have changed here in Australia. They are really digging deep now and making the necessary changes.

Meanwhile, I am still going to work for now. Have been traveling a bit and wonder what my risk factor is. Very few people on the streets though and everyone is taking the necessary precautions. My food is provided by the company and delivered to the hotel room.

When I return home tomorrow, I don't have to go into isolation. Everyone else crossing state lines to particular states like the one I live in, have introduced mandatory isolation but I have been spared from that because my travel is for work purposes and all workers are now considered essential services.

I am however very cautious these days when I see my wife and kids and insist they all stay away from me just in case.

The Government is monitoring all passenger manifests and tracking them and testing people as required. As far as I know, I have not been on a plane with a carrier as yet. But if there is even 1 carrier, we will be all tested and put into isolation. The government sends an SMS if they want you to test.

If you get one of those tests and don't present yourself for a test, you can be arrested and forced to take it.

[Kikapu]

I hate to rain on anyone’s parade, but what the graphs may show for Australia’s Coronavirus numbers are meaningless unless someone can tell me with certainty that the numbers tested in the last 4 days are equal or greater than the numbers tested before the last 4 days. So, let’s have less talk on the chart’s meanings and more talk on the numbers tested.

Have you watched the youtube video RW posted yet Kikapun https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc ? Looked at and played with the interactive data analysis site that it is describing ? https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

If not I would urge you, as someone who imo is not a total donkey, to do so.

I did watch the YouTube RW posted. I was mainly commenting the 4 days of stats Paphitis was bragging that the Coronavirus cases were dropping.

I wasn't bragging. I am however very hopeful about it.

It's the first bit of good news we have had with regard to China Virus. before we were doubling every 4 days and now we are doubling every 7 days. I think I will take it and hope they can keep that trend up and delay the doubling even further.

2 weeks ago, Australians seemed a bit aloof, almost irresponsible but now things have changed here in Australia. They are really digging deep now and making the necessary changes.

Meanwhile, I am still going to work for now. Have been traveling a bit and wonder what my risk factor is. Very few people on the streets though and everyone is taking the necessary precautions. My food is provided by the company and delivered to the hotel room.

When I return home tomorrow, I don't have to go into isolation. Everyone else crossing state lines to particular states like the one I live in, have introduced mandatory isolation but I have been spared from that because my travel is for work purposes and all workers are now considered essential services.

The bragging comment by me was not meant in a negative way. I wanted to know if the new cases were dropping just because there are less positives at the same number of test done as before or are the positive new cases are down because there are significantly less test conducted. This is very important to know if there are to be any celebration on the reduced numbers on positive new cases.

[Paphitis]

America has had a fascination with Corona-carrying bats for the last few years...

"For example, with NIH and DARPA support, CSU College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences researchers Dick Bowen and Tony Schountz are actively working with MERS coronavirus in bats and camels to understand the role of these hosts in transmitting disease to humans. They have also created artificial ecosystems to study virus transmission between species in “real-world” conditions, while Rebekah Kading is funded by the Department of Defense to sample bats in Africa for viral loads to help build capacity for infectious disease responses worldwide."

https://source.colostate.edu/wuhan-coro ... s-respond/

Just how much coincidence is still coincidence?

They been doing similar tests on bats in Australia.

the reason why they do that is to assess whether there are any risks for transmission to humans. And as is the case with the testing you mention, they are mostly done by universities as part of a study of post grad research paper.

Also they been doing test on fruit bats for rabies. In certain parks in Adelaide, there are even signs to be cautious because the diseases these animals carry can transmit via their droppings.

Now you would thing that if any state player is responsible, they would take the necessary precautions to protect themselves at least. The Americans did a very poor job of that one didn't they? In fact, if they were responsible as you insinuate (and they aren't), then we would have to classify this operation as one of the biggest f@#kups in human history.

There are however some states which report no victims at all - North Korea.

There is also a State that has had a remarkable recovery - China

And there is a State out there with unusually very low stats - Russia.

Mmmmm

[Paphitis]

I hate to rain on anyone’s parade, but what the graphs may show for Australia’s Coronavirus numbers are meaningless unless someone can tell me with certainty that the numbers tested in the last 4 days are equal or greater than the numbers tested before the last 4 days. So, let’s have less talk on the chart’s meanings and more talk on the numbers tested.

Have you watched the youtube video RW posted yet Kikapun https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc ? Looked at and played with the interactive data analysis site that it is describing ? https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

If not I would urge you, as someone who imo is not a total donkey, to do so.

I did watch the YouTube RW posted. I was mainly commenting the 4 days of stats Paphitis was bragging that the Coronavirus cases were dropping.

I wasn't bragging. I am however very hopeful about it.

It's the first bit of good news we have had with regard to China Virus. before we were doubling every 4 days and now we are doubling every 7 days. I think I will take it and hope they can keep that trend up and delay the doubling even further.

2 weeks ago, Australians seemed a bit aloof, almost irresponsible but now things have changed here in Australia. They are really digging deep now and making the necessary changes.

Meanwhile, I am still going to work for now. Have been traveling a bit and wonder what my risk factor is. Very few people on the streets though and everyone is taking the necessary precautions. My food is provided by the company and delivered to the hotel room.

When I return home tomorrow, I don't have to go into isolation. Everyone else crossing state lines to particular states like the one I live in, have introduced mandatory isolation but I have been spared from that because my travel is for work purposes and all workers are now considered essential services.

The bragging comment by me was not meant in a negative way. I wanted to know if the new cases were dropping just because there are less positives at the same number of test done as before or are the positive new cases are down because there are significantly less test conducted. This is very important to know if there are to be any celebration on the reduced numbers on positive new cases.

Here are the testing stats at the same time.

It doesn't break down when the tests were done, but our PM has confirmed that they have stockpiled some testing kits and that they no longer require to ration as much.

At one point I know we were running very low and they were only testing people who had symptoms.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

[Paphitis]

Well it also looks like Australia is refusing to disembark The Ruby Princess which is in Sydney's Watson's Bay.

2 crew members became gravely ill and had to be taken to a Sydney Hospital and were only allowed to disembark with the Minister's signature. Everyone else is stuck on the ship and apparently there are 300 carriers on board and Australia won't let them off.

EDIT: that was the ship that was wrongfully disembarked after the deadline. But there are people stuck on it atm who are also ill.

So that explains the spike yesterday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... t-positive

All because of one massive blunder. the ship was not suppose to even dock.

They want the ship to leave as soon as possible and won't let people on the ship off.

2 crew members are gravely ill and are in a Sydney ICU.

[Londonrake]

On the lighter side:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... an-doctor/

.

[Paphitis]

There's a serious competition going on in this forum. Who can come up with the most bonkers and substantially unsupported conspiracy theories. From the people who brought you "There's no evidence at all to support the case that Russia had anything to do with the murder of Alexander Litvinenko or attempted murder of Sergei Skrypal"

Batty!

Yeh very batty!

Oh and don't forget:

apparently 911 was a red flag operation by the US, and they will claim they have all the evidence as well.

The same people who also said that the moon landing was a hoax.

And apparently, Assad didn't have his torture camp where 10,000 Syrians disappeared.

The Americans also shot down MH370 and MH17. Poor Malaysians must be wondering what they did to Umerika!

And now, the US is responsible for a virus that has infected more of their own citizens than any other country.

Go figure!

[Paphitis]

Well it looks like things are continuing to head in the right direction for Australia. We had 196 new cases yesterday. That’s a record low, after a spike of 596 the day before as a result of the Ruby Princess incident.

I don’t know the testing figures as it’s difficult to analyze here because there are 8 Departments of Health. Each Authority has its own testing regime. All I know is Australia has the second highest testing regime behind South Korea. But it series State to State.

The measures however have been draconian. The Government refuses to go into full lock down but the army is very visible at airports, and ports and on our streets monitoring isolations, and transporting the isolated. This has never happened before in our history to have the army take on a semi quasi policing role.

Got to say though that the Australian people continue to amaze me. Their attitude has well and truly picked up.

We should all be pleased when any country does well. Likewise we should be sad for any country that is struggling and hope they can turn it around quickly.