cyprusgrump wrote:Kikapu wrote:cyprusgrump wrote:So Kiks, on May 10th you posted:Kikapu Sun May 10, 2020 7:40 pm wrote:By the way, the WHO 3.4% Covid-19 death rate was back in March. According to my calculations, it is at 4.4% as of now, which translates to 340 million dead per year if the whole world’s population were to contract the disease. Slightly higher than contracting the flu, no?
The whole world did not get the virus, so how am I proven wrong?
Four weeks ago you posted:Kikapu Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:39 am wrote:Not exactly, Paphitis. Yes, at present time your statement seems true, but it is very much misleading, because you are dismissing the incubation period that it takes 2-4 weeks for patient to die after contracting the virus. Let’s look at the death numbers in about 2-3 weeks and see where they are. The “low” death numbers we have now are the numbers achieved with the lockdown, but as the new cases has exploded in the USA (50,000+ yesterday) after the lock down and the numbers are also increasing in other countries who are not practicing social distancing and the use of masks, I expect death rates to rise rapidly and sharply.
The death rates and daily cases has risen since July 3rd and the trajectory supports my statement as seen in the graphs.A day after you doubled-down and posted:Kikapu Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:18 pm wrote:Actually, as of recent times, 5,000 are dropping dead a day world wide. I expect those figures to rise by 50%-100% in the next 2-4 weeks.
Once again I was mostly vindicated as the death rate on few times went from about 5,000 a day to about 7,000 a day. That would make it at 40%, not too far from the 50% base of the 100%. Even at 7 day average, the numbers are in my favour, considering your starting point was that there would be no change to the death rates from July 3rd. The trajectory of daily death s are in favour of my predictions and not yours, that there would be no change.On July 19th you wrote:Kikapu Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:44 pm wrote:The whole world has not been infected yet, and should it does, we will lose millions of people. Basic science and arithmetic.
The daily death rate has already risen by 10% in the last 2 weeks. Look for it to increase much faster in the coming 2 weeks as the incubation period of those infected 2 weeks ago start “hatching”.
On Friday July 3rd the daily deaths (according to Worldometers) were 5,299. Or if you prefer, the 7-day moving average was 4,629.
On July 31st the daily deaths figure is 6,234 or if you prefer a 7-day moving average of 5,654.
Not exactly 50% to 100% higher or millions of deaths is it...?
The trajectory of increased daily deaths are in my favour of prediction than yours that they will remain stagnant.
Those getting the coronavirus and not dying is great as there are better understanding in treating patients to reduce deaths, but many patients surviving the coronavirus infection are not necessarily whole persons with their health as they were before contracting the virus. The case numbers have exploded at about 50% recently after the lockdowns were lifted. Can you see the connection?
As I think I've mentioned before, denial, not just a river in Egypt....
I agree.
You cannot deny the trajectory of the daily death rates moving higher than what they were on July 3rd.
