Kikapu wrote:Paphitis wrote:Kikapu wrote:Paphitis wrote:Tim Drayton wrote:More than 600 of the nation’s physicians sent a letter to President Trump this week calling the coronavirus shutdowns a “mass casualty incident” with “exponentially growing negative health consequences” to millions of non COVID patients.
“The downstream health effects…are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error,” according to the letter initiated by Simone Gold, M.D., an emergency medicine specialist in Los Angeles.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemarie ... 22d9ee50fa
Iv'e always been skeptical about the lock-downs and the economic and psychological issues at stake which result in massive depression, mental health issues and eventual suicide.
The media are not talking about it. No one is researching what the impact actually is. I am certain there is an impact.
Just as a side note. Right now, we have QANTAS Captains working at service stations, labourers or doing any work they can get their hands on. Captain on an A380, or B787 one day, and pumping gas the next. International pilots might not be back for 12 to 24 months. The A380 guys may never go back. They are being sent to the graveyard in the USA.
We got 2 QANTAS guys (mates) working on our worksites now as trade assists. It really is amazing, because these guys are so grateful to have a job, and are worth their weight in gold. As a business, we are ok for the next 12 months but after that, it's anyone's guess. because we do our own work with stock we own, we have to play it carefully because we carry the risk. So we may need to slow down as we may not be able to move stock without taking a loss. So we might take a massive hit with the stock we have.
I'm now lucky to be flying 1 day a week, but in 2 days time, I run out of currency with no sim booked. So until I get booked into the sim to get signed off, I won't be able to fly. Our sim facility in Melbourne is under lock down.
There are hundreds of student pilots who have spend over $120,000 to get their ATPL after 18 months of training with major and budget airlines with a promised jobs at the end of their training is no longer the case. Many hundreds students won’t be able to complete their trainings, and even if they could, the promised job at the end is no longer guaranteed. Instead they are stuck with the loans and debt for their flight training without the ability to pay back anytime soon, if ever.
They won't be getting a job for a while.
Domestic will be first to recover, but QANTAS has virtually shut down their international routes. These guys won't get back for at least 12 months.
Domestic routes should hopefully get back to 70 to 80% capacity.
The USA will be the quickest to recover. hey have no choice but to keep open for business. So I got my fingers crossed for a new years or first quarter 2021 recovery.
Once it opens up, the airlines are going to be in a lot of trouble. It will take months getting everyone current again, and because no one has been coming through the pipeline, and due to natural attrition, resignations and retirements, the Airlines will face the prospect of not being able to meet demand and hence new hires should start again quickly after everyone is current again.
The travelling public though should brace themselves for unprecedented levels of fuck ups, as pilots are quickly ticked off. Won't be that bad as generally people won't know but it will take a while for Traffickers and pilots to find their rhythm. It's going to be a shit time for Line Trainers, and Checkers.
These cadets will just need to be patient. When they signed up, they were only promised to be placed in a pool. Priority will be given to employees, and those already qualified on the cyclic program.
Swiss and Lufthansa trained their own student pilots, paid for the training by the cadets themselves in one form or the other, to replace those pilots due to retire down the road, so cadets were more or less assured a place in the cockpit soon after their training. Now, most are basically has been forced to stop their training, and those who did manage to finish their training are not needed as many veteran pilots are sitting at home. Can these newly trained pilots afford to be away from the cockpit for a long periods of time and not lose some of their skills they have built during their training. No doubt there will be special refresher courses waiting for them if and when the time comes for them to get into the cockpit.
It's not as critical for the cadets.
the 120K only pays for ab initio training to obtain a Commercial Pilot Licence, ATPL Theory, an IFR rating on light aircraft.
After that, they go through Jet Transition Training. From here, the training is paid for by the airline.
After Jet Transition, then its INDOC, Ground School, Aircraft Systems, And Endorsement Training. After their Check To Line, it's a minimum of 100 hours line training and then a line check.
The cadet pilots having only flown light aircraft and not even gone through Jet Transition, are not on the Cyclic Program. They do not need to worry about currency on a sophisticated aircraft like a line checked pilot does.
So basically, after their 120K training, they are starting from scratch on sophisticated types starting on Jet Transition which is usually done on a Citation or Lear. And then they go to Ground School and Sim Training for the endorsement on type. 3 months of training here alone. Then you are on the Cyclic Program.
Just because you pay 120K doesn't guarantee you a job. You can be axed anytime in the process and I have seen it too. If you don't pass ATPL subjects for instance, or the airlines requirements change or if there is a downturn.
The priorities for an airline would be the pilots they already have on the cyclic program, after then they would start recruiting like hell I predict if the industry recovers to anywhere near pre Covid levels.
