by Paphitis » Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:23 am
Had a long discussion with my GP.
He thinks it's possible they will find a vaccine, because just about every lab in the world is working on it and when humans work together and collaborate they can do anything.
But in the event they do not which is a distinct possibility, he believes the Virus which is currently a pandemic will remain endemic to the human species. In other words, it will stay with us for years, decades, and possibly forever, much like the common flu.
The virus will mutate as it's transferred from host to host and will continue to mutate to a more human friendly form. The germ does not want to kill its host. Because it it does, it also dies.
Also, as it goes from host to host, the human race will eventually build an immunity to it and whilst we will still get sick, the death rate will reduce over time.
If the vaccine isn't found, or can never be found, then virtually every person on the planet will eventually get it over the coming years. The whole point is to control the outbreak so that health services can cope, otherwise the death toll will be much much higher.
So 2 things are possible:
1) there is a vaccine and problem solved, OR
2) herd immunity (Swedish Model)
I am of the opinion that a vaccine will not be found. My GP believes a vaccine can be found (I hope he is right), but isn't ruling out that it may never be found. They have been trying to find a vaccine for MERS and also SARS for 17 years, and still have not found one.
So at this point in time, it seems Sweden could be on the right path.
It also means that countries like the USA and Brazil, might be the first to achieve herd immunity and the quickest to recover economically and socially from the disaster.
Which also means, countries like South Korea and Australia (Greece and Cyprus too) have only kicked the can down the road, and will be the late bloomers and the last to achieve herd immunity.