Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz66]

Please read it Erolz and let us have your valued straight-up opinion on it's right or wrongness and reasons. Why not?

We have 200 pages of me doing that. You want more ? Will I be accused of spending my whole life here ? Will I be slated for my forensic approach ?

If and when I get some time maybe I will read it. Maybe I will comment. Maybe I will not. Regardless if it is at odds with the simple plain numbers I will place more trust in the numbers than it. That is where I start from. The simple plain unarguable numbers.

[repulsewarrior]

Even Trump finds Brazil's efforts appalling. (that in itself should give those who say the lockdown has with it ulterior motives, something to think about)

...given that this pandemic will be over eventually, it will be interesting to see serious comparisons between Sweden and Brazil, as well as Brazil to the rest of the world.

...i ask, can you ignore science, with such an event, and enjoy the same or better results? Indeed, most of the efforts, in this lockdown will obviously be found to be a waste, with little or no benefit; this is normal. On the other hand, being the first time, having this information will be useful, with its own rewards in the future.

...well there is rioting, and demonstrations in the streets, but it is not about COVID19; counter intuitively, that is a good sign, it implies that the People do not take their Freedom lightly.

[erolz66]

Please read it Erolz and let us have your valued straight-up opinion on it's right or wrongness and reasons. Why not?

We have 200 pages of me doing that. You want more ? Will I be accused of spending my whole life here ? Will I be slated for my forensic approach ?

If and when I get some time maybe I will read it. Maybe I will comment. Maybe I will not. Regardless if it is at odds with the simple plain numbers I will place more trust in the numbers than it. That is where I start from. The simple plain unarguable numbers.

So am not even sure what piece I am supposed to be reading. had a quick scan of this one

https://hectordrummond.com/2020/06/05/j ... just-stop/

Firstly with the calls for 'Erolz please read it', did those making such calls read my earlier posts about hectordrummond site position on ONS figures shifted over time, in my long and detailed time line on that subject? No you just ignoired and ridiculed it and then you plead for me to read this one ?. Did anyone read my figures I already gave for what the cost of herd immunity for Sweden would be with various IFR rates and herd immunity thresholds ? Prob not yet this article does this using only their chosen numbers and you plead for me to reads it ?

So the article again deals with 'guess numbers' - like IFR. It also states 0.25% IFR as 'likely'. These are all still guesses and imo their likely figure is the likely figure from someone who has already decided that the global response is an over reaction publish on a website that had already decided that as well (see how they behaved as the ONS figures stopped showing what they wanted) and posted here and happy clapped by others who have all done likewise.

Then they come to their RO figure that give the herd immunity percentage. Everything I have read about herd immunity that pre dates this outbreak talks about 60-90% infection being required. Yet they used a figure of 30% and state this as 'fact' because there is not statistical difference between places that have locked down and those that have not. This is just bogus and way to early to state as fact in the way the author does. Nor does he recognised WHEN action was taken which is a much bigger correlation as to what action was taken. In the last week the figures in Sweden have started to show exactly the kind of difference that the author claims the lack of is proof that their low end estimates for IFR and herd immunity threshold are 'facts'. The claim that there has been no evidence in uptrend with relaxation of lock down is just the same as the ONS figures all over again. Calling it too early to get the result you want. We will know for example in the UK if relaxing measure leads to new spikes in 2 months time. He is calling it now, just like hector drummond site called the ONS as proof for weeks when there had only been 11 covid-19 attributed deaths in the UK. That they call their guesses of these unknowable yet numbers 'facts' just shows the true nature of this article imo.

So then we come on to his numbers. He claims Swedish population of 8,800,000. When I google Swedish population I get the result 10.23 million. I trust google way way more than this guy who as already shown to me that he is not interested in best understanding of reality. He is interested in proving something regardless of reality.

If you take real pop of Sweden ‭10,230,000‬ and his 30% herd immunity threshold (find me ANY piece on herd immunity pre 2020 that talks about % this low) and his 'likely' IFR you actually get 7,672 deaths not his claimed 6600 obtained by just using an incorrect figure for the population of Sweden. Put herd immunity threshold at the LOW end of every article pre 2020 I read about herd immunity , which is 60% and the deaths go to 15,345. Put IFR at 0.4 and herd immunity threshold at 60% and the numbers are 24,552. Put herd immunity threshold at 90% and IFR as 0.7 and the numbers are 64,449.

As far as I am concerned this is just another piece from someone who decided at the outset that it was all over reaction, published on a website that decided the same and linked here and happy clapped by those who did like wise. It is based on guess numbers. It is based on taking the lowest ranges possible for guess numbers and portraying them as fact. They are not fact. They could be right but we do not and can not know that yet. At the simplest level if you look at the hard numbers in ONS then likely IFR is around 0.4-0.5 as the number of deaths from this event is around 4-5 times higher than the average for flu spike outbreaks every 5-10 years and consensus figure for flu IFR is 0.1 %. This is till a guess but its as sound as just taking the lowest figure from a range fo figures because that suits.

So the guy can not even get the population of Sweden correct - but it just happens his error helps his case.

He talks about herd immunity at 30% yet I know of not one of the many viruses we have eradicated or near eradicated like polio where vaccine of a mere 30% of the population has been sufficent to eradicate or near eradicate the virus https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immu ... 0to%20work.

He talks about how in place that have not locked down we see the same peak and fall off - yet just look at the graphs I posted above from the Hopkins numbers. Belgium - yes, Norway - yes. Sweden no.

It just does not add up. It is something written by someone starting with 'I want to prove x' and working back from that. It is just the sdame ols same old bollocks imo that some have been pushing here for 250 pages and will keep pushing no matter what as we get better and more data.

[erolz66]

Please read it Erolz and let us have your valued straight-up opinion on it's right or wrongness and reasons. Why not?

Indeed... What is it, a 10 minute read...?

He could even take him up on the €1,000 bet!

I would bet 1000 euro that the population of Sweden in 2020 is not 8,800,000 as your wonderful expert claims

If he can not even get the population of Sweden correct what do you recon the chances are that he knows what IFR is for this virus or what herd immunity threshold for it is ? I'll give you a clue - not very high.

[repulsewarrior]

...where is GiG when you need her?

[erolz66]

And as we are all so concerned at people dying, not of covid-19 but from other causes how many extra deaths will there be from flu in the winter of 2020/21 in the UK because people who otherwise could have been protected by taking an annual flu vaccine will not now do so because they are worried it has a Bill Gates tracking chip in it ?

Care to try and answer that one Tim ? Some how I doubt you will. Keep going and maybe we can see a return of Polio too.

[Kikapu]

And as we are all so concerned at people dying, not of covid-19 but from other causes how many extra deaths will there be from flu in the winter of 2020/21 in the UK because people who otherwise could have been protected by taking an annual flu vaccine will not now do so because they are worried it has a Bill Gates tracking chip in it ?

Care to try and answer that one Tim ? Some how I doubt you will. Keep going and maybe we can see a return of Polio too.

Precisely.

It would be the case of by those who have Bill Gates phobia that, be careful what you ask for, because you might end up getting it!

[repulsewarrior]

...oh the irony, it has been years that the ammunition manufacturing industry has had a chemical way (by contact residue) to trace every bullet, shell, and explosive, once fired.

...of course it's not the same thing, but on the issue of privacy it is.

...(or is it;) you get shot, something goes wrong, it is a good place to start, which bullet?

[Paphitis]

I like the idea of flying into Newark, O'Hare, LAX, Dallas, Vegas, San Francisco, Atlanta, Dulles day in day out. So many planes in the sky and beautiful landscapes especially over the rockies. The variety in flying, in snow/sleet, icing conditions and even going to novel places like Alaska, Caribbean, and mexico and also flying into Canada appeals to me greatly.

You are going to love making parallel landing on runways 28L & 28R and parallel take-off on runways 1L & 1R on narrow separation at San Francisco International Airport (SFO - KSFO) when conditions are good.

You are also going to looooooove “the cardiac approach” onto runway 27 at San Dieago International Airport (SAN -KSAN)!

Hope your “ticker” is working fine!

Oh yeh.

We don't come anywhere near having a cardiac episode no matter how hairy it might seem to you. There are procedures in place and soon as even the slightest thing goes wrong, even what may seem trivial, is an automatic go around and come back and try again.
.

You haven’t landed at San Dieago’s R27 yet. Just to give you some idea, the threshold is about halfway down the runway as the first half is obscured by high terrain of Balboa Park and the freeway.

Balboa Park is a great visit btw.

I know what you are saying. They have terrain in the splay which means they need to displace the threshold in order to meet the OLS requirements.

It's still safe because everything is loaded into the FMS. If you look out the window, you would probably think my my we are close to terrain here, but all the tolerances are actually built into the system and then some.

Flying a modern jet is easy. What's extreme are the pilots who fly in Papua New Guinea, flying old aircraft without an FMS where the Lower Safe Altitude is 21000Ft. Taking off and entering cloud from 5000FT and knowing you have to do laps till you get to 21000FT.

[Paphitis]

I like the idea of flying into Newark, O'Hare, LAX, Dallas, Vegas, San Francisco, Atlanta, Dulles day in day out. So many planes in the sky and beautiful landscapes especially over the rockies. The variety in flying, in snow/sleet, icing conditions and even going to novel places like Alaska, Caribbean, and mexico and also flying into Canada appeals to me greatly.

You are going to love making parallel landing on runways 28L & 28R and parallel take-off on runways 1L & 1R on narrow separation at San Francisco International Airport (SFO - KSFO) when conditions are good.

You are also going to looooooove “the cardiac approach” onto runway 27 at San Dieago International Airport (SAN -KSAN)!

Hope your “ticker” is working fine!

Oh yeh.

We don't come anywhere near having a cardiac episode no matter how hairy it might seem to you. There are procedures in place and soon as even the slightest thing goes wrong, even what may seem trivial, is an automatic go around and come back and try again.
.

You haven’t landed at San Dieago’s R27 yet. Just to give you some idea, the threshold is about halfway down the runway as the first half is obscured by high terrain of Balboa Park and the freeway.

Balboa Park is a great visit btw.

See, that approach is typical of 99.9% of approached. same old same old. The terrain in the undershoot has little effect other than pilots should be aware of it and it would be coloured on the Jeppessen Plates so even if its your first time there, it's hard to miss.

The approaches are flown on the ILS always, and when that's our they are flown on RNAV or VNAV approached, which keeps every plane exactly on the glide-path with the required 3.0 degree descent gradient. Once the aircraft deviates from the glide-path, alarms go off and it's an automatic go around.

There are also alarms for descent rate. At 140 knots descent rate is 750 feet per minute. You half your speed and add 50 feet and we use that as a rule of thumb whether its an A380 or a B737. The descent table is also published on every Jeppessen Chart. Same with the LIDO Charts I will be using hopefully,

I really love listening to American Air Traffic Control. Always on point and professional. They got no room for errors in the States. Watch some videos about American ATC. As far as I am concerned, they are the gold standard.