Cyprus-Forum.com

[Londonrake]

Interesting down-to-earth BBC article on Corona and risk management:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-5275802 ... rvU29HorTw

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[erolz66]

Countries where the rate of new positives in last week vs positives to date is doubling faster than every 20 days, with the 'worst' still doubling every 2-3 days.

https://bchurchill.github.io/covidtrend ... ingtime=20

[Paphitis]

How many people do you know of in last two months who have been hospitalised because of attempted suicide. How many because they have contracted covid-19 ? Before covid-19 outbreak how many people were hospitalised because of attempted suicide in a given time period vs because of covid-19 infection ?

The negative impact on mental health because of the virus , regardless of lock down or not, are real. So are mental health issues specific to lock down. We have knowledge of these issues and means and mechanism to treat and minimise harm and shortened life spans caused by them.

https://fullfact.org/health/covid-deaths/

Real yes, but the extent to which remains very unclear.

The death rates reported are not accurate as they are not a true depiction of the actual death rate. If you go to the official stats, we are getting the death rate as a percentage of the total detected cases.

We do not know how many millions of people actually caught the virus and were asymptomatic or had mild to moderate symptoms and didn't see a doctor and make the statistics. Many people in third world countries probably won't see a GP unless they are experiencing severe symptoms.

The question here is whether the lock down measures are warranted. In Australia, I don't believe they were. And the risk of over reach is very real.

The costs of this lock down is real. Here in Adelaide, a young 35 year old just died from cancer. they wouldn't admit him to hospital in Australia because the hospital said he would risk possible COVID-19 infection. That is one extreme.

The other more financial and material consequence, is people losing their employment, unable to provide for their families or unable to pay their mortgages. The last 3 months has been actually quite devastating for families. And yes, these lock downs with have a cost to society aside from the financial and material. Mental Health will be a far greater and more dangerous pandemic. It was already bad before COVID-19, and now with high unemployment and lock down, it will be more. How many lives will be lost because of this? I don't know. Someone will have to do a study.

There are many experts who have been silenced from the mainstream. I want to know why.

[erolz66]

The death rates reported are not accurate as they are not a true depiction of the actual death rate. If you go to the official stats, we are getting the death rate as a percentage of the total detected cases.

The count of how many people have died in a given time period are real and a true depiction of how many people have died in that given time period. Countries like the UK (England and Wales) have been counting these total deaths accurately in the same way using the same methods and systems and people for decades. Can these numbers tell you what IFR or CFR or R is for this specific virus ? No they can not. Can they tell you what the scale of this event is in terms of increases in deaths vs previous flu outbreaks and other historic events ? Yes they can. Not as extrapolation, estimation, modelling or guesses. They can and do tell us this as fact. This should be the starting point because it is just counts of fact with no interpretation. It should be what all opinions that are not statements of fact are measured against. This is not rocket science.

[Paphitis]

The death rates reported are not accurate as they are not a true depiction of the actual death rate. If you go to the official stats, we are getting the death rate as a percentage of the total detected cases.

The count of how many people have died in a given time period are real and a true depiction of how many people have died in that given time period. Countries like the UK (England and Wales) have been counting these total deaths accurately in the same way using the same methods and systems and people for decades. Can these numbers tell you what IFR or CFR or R is for this specific virus ? No they can not. Can they tell you what the scale of this event is in terms of increases in deaths vs previous flu outbreaks and other historic events ? Yes they can. Not as extrapolation, estimation, modelling or guesses. They can and do tell us this as fact. This should be the starting point because it is just counts of fact with no interpretation. It should be what all opinions that are not statements of fact are measured against. This is not rocket science.

No I do not consider the numbers reported as Chy-na Virus deaths as real. I believe the numbers have been over stated with deaths being attributed to Chy-na Virus even though the patients were already terminally ill from cancer and so on.

Secondly, there are even testimonies that completely unrelated deaths were attributed to Chy-na Virus.

But regardless of all that, we do not know the total number of infected. We know the reported numbers of Chy-na Virus deaths, the veracity of which is currently debatable, but we do not know the true total of the infected. That true number could be many times more than the detected numbers.

What the experts are saying is that Chy-na Virus doesn't have a mortality rate of 6%. It doesn't even have a mortality rate of 3.4% as reported by the Wuhan Health Organisation.

The experts are saying the mortality rate is below 1%. Several studies, all from well qualified professionals in the field, are mentioning a mortality rate closer to 0.4%.

So the question remains. Are the lock downs warranted? Maybe they are. I don't know. Maybe we over reacted. I believe this to be completely true in Australia's case.

More questions need to be asked. What is the total cost of the lock downs to society? These costs are both material, psychological and will also have a mortality rate. What is this mortality rate? Are we locking down to save the few and losing many? I don't know. I haven't been able to find data either, but one day it will be released.

The notion of protecting the vulnerable - the elderly and sick is definitely warranted. But is it warranted to prevent the healthy from living their normal lives and providing for their families?

[miltiades]

Haven't you yet seen a psychiatrist General? Or at least learn the correct name of the world's most populous nation as well as the universally known known of the pandemic. What a fucking idiot, take after your idiot hero Tr-amp.!!

[Londonrake]

Haven't you yet seen a psychiatrist General? Or at least learn the correct name of the world's most populous nation as well as the universally known known of the pandemic. What a fucking idiot, take after your idiot hero Tr-amp.!!

Ahhhhh! Milti’s back.

[erolz66]

No I do not consider the numbers reported as Chy-na Virus deaths as real. I believe the numbers have been over stated with deaths being attributed to Chy-na Virus even though the patients were already terminally ill from cancer and so on.

And the numbers for total deaths from all causes ? Do you believe these ? It is literally like talking to a brick wall at times.

[cyprusgrump]

No I do not consider the numbers reported as Chy-na Virus deaths as real. I believe the numbers have been over stated with deaths being attributed to Chy-na Virus even though the patients were already terminally ill from cancer and so on.

And the numbers for total deaths from all causes ? Do you believe these ? It is literally like talking to a brick wall at times.

And yet you refuse to believe the 'excess deaths' are from any other cause than the virus...

It is literally like talking to a brick wall at times.

[erolz66]

No I do not consider the numbers reported as Chy-na Virus deaths as real. I believe the numbers have been over stated with deaths being attributed to Chy-na Virus even though the patients were already terminally ill from cancer and so on.

And the numbers for total deaths from all causes ? Do you believe these ? It is literally like talking to a brick wall at times.

And yet you refuse to believe the 'excess deaths' are from any other cause than the virus...

It is literally like talking to a brick wall at times.

I have never said this. In fact I said the opposite multiple times.

What I have said is you can gauge the scale of this event vs previous events using the same numbers for each example. Previous events like periodic flu spikes that occur every 5 to 10 years or once in life time events like 1967/8 flu epidemic, or once in hundred years events like 1917/8 global pandemic all have excess deaths in their total deaths all causes numbers that were not directly from the specific virus concerned. The comparison in terms of relative scale is sound. It allows us to compare like with like to get an idea of the scale of this current event relative to previous ones. It can be done without having to use any 'dubious' figures at all, just known counts of 100% certain status (dead or not dead). Some refuse to accept this because such does not give them the result they want so instead they use numbers that are dubious while ignoring the ones that are not and what they can tell us. This is not rocket science.

As long as you ignore the point I am making, claim I have said things that I have not said, then yes I am likely to respond to correct you. What I have been saying consistently is simple and clear. That months on you still misrepresent it is not my problem or fault. It is yours.