Tim Drayton wrote:erolz66 wrote:Do you think the expert you quoted on 30th March was talking nonsense ?
The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?
What the expert said made sense. As I have showed, deaths peaked very dramatically in a similar way in January 1951 in the UK. So there was an exceptionally lethal disease, if we take that expert at face value
What you have shown is there is no length you will not go to to try and fit the simplest hardest current fact evidence we do have in to the narrative you have pre chosen rather than just accept it for what it is and use that to inform and re-inform your understanding. It takes a lot for me to just write off anything someone says just because of the person who is saying it. More than most I will 'think' about it whoever is saying it. I do not do what the likes of CG do and just quickly declare 'Everyone knows nothing you say can ever have any value and everyone ignores everything you say' to anyone who dares to offer an opinion different from mine. Because by any measure of relative degree I am not here to push propaganda. I am actually here (and able to hear) to try and understand better. However in your case on the subject of corona virus I am pretty much at my limit. The document you dug out, that I have bothered to read and try and understand, in no way shows that the even we are in now is akin in scale to regular flu spikes seen evvery 5 to 10 years. It actually reinforces what can be know by simply accepting the simple hard current numbers we have already seen in ONS figures. That in scale this current event is comparable with once every 50 year or 100 years events and NOT with once in 10 year ones.
Tim Drayton wrote: (don't you think you are somewhat cherry picking from among the mass of expert opinion from some very eminent experts that I have quoted on this thread?).
I am picking your expert than is the most relevant to the question what is 'The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease'. Should I pick ones that do not talk about the issue that I am talking about ? You do note that he does not say the simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease, is to search around frantically for anything we think can produce the result we ant no matter how badly we have to twist it whilst ignoring the current simple hard figures on how many more people have died in a week than expected.
Tim Drayton wrote:However, at that time, life went on, there was no media hysteria to the extent of blocking out all other reporting or lock down.
Did it ? Have you done the research have you ? You know no factories closed down in any period during the 1951 outbreak ? No mass gatherings were postponed or cancelled ? Life went on , with life expectancy in 1951 being 69 vs 81.3 today (source
https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy ).
So I have taken this nonsense about as far as I am willing to. You keep ignoring fact if you like and trying to force it in to the narrative you have pre chosen and will never change from no matter how things develop as time goes on. I have reach a limit and will now be pretty much just ignoring anything you say on the subject as default.
