Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz66]

Given that deaths from the virus are almost certainly peaking, as they always do, and will then fall rapidly,....

For anyone that is NOT locked in to confirmation bias and who really does look 'at the numbers' and looks at the hard numbers before the guess one and who is trying to make REASONABLE projections forward from what is definitively already KNOWN.

There is a remarkable commonality in curves with these kinds of things. From places that are 'ahead' of the UK, on pretty much all numbers, be they hard 'total deaths all causes', or guesstimates of opinion 'deaths from covid-19' or 'positive tests'. And ALSO from previous lesser flu outbreaks that occur every 10 years or so. They all show a truly remarkable commonality. The commonality is the the up slope is stepper and faster than the down slope after peak , which is longer and more gradual. It is not a 'bell curve'. Just saying.

[repulsewarrior]

[erolz66]

You and me both Vic and thanks RW.

[erolz66]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ss-factors

Japan suicides decline as Covid-19 lockdown causes shift in stress factors
April’s 20% drop compared with a year earlier may be the result of delays to start of school year, less commuting and more time with family

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2020/05/202 ... 8_041.html

The Centre for Health Protection today confirmed that it is investigating two locally transmitted cases of COVID-19 after more than three weeks of handling only imported cases.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... y-disorder

Italian doctors find link between Covid-19 and inflammatory disorder
The disorder has required some children to undergo life-saving treatment in intensive care units

https://www.ft.com/content/f7d08906-b5c ... c95d533bc6

Just 5 per cent of Spaniards have been infected by coronavirus and “herd immunity” against the pandemic is a much more distant prospect than some had hoped, a government-backed report indicated on Wednesday.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandras ... -immunity/

13.9% Of New Yorkers Test Positive For Coronavirus Antibodies—Still Not Enough To Foster Herd Immunity

[Kikapu]

The way I figure, it is going to take the same amount of time from start of the Covid-19, say January 2020 to end of Covid-19, whenever that may be, to get accurate number of dead from Covid-19 by using past, present and future ONS figures of number of the dead. I know, it is confusing a little, so let me break it down what I mean.

Let’s assume for the sake of this exercise that Covid-19 will end December 2020.

We then need to wait until December 2021 to get the new average Death numbers for 2021 to compare it with the average death numbers for 2019 to compare the difference.

It is proven without dispute that the present number of dead is much higher than the average numbers for last year. The only question needs to be determined is whether the excess deaths thus far from last year’s average death rate are, that they died FROM Covid-19 or they died WITH Covid-19?

It is very possible many of the dead in 2020 were taken from future deaths, mainly the elderly which could not be defended against Covid-19 in 2020, which they will fall into the category of dying WITH Covid-19. As a result, the death numbers for 2021 will be much lower than 2019.

If the excess deaths in 2020 are people whom died FROM Covid-19, then the death rate in 2021 will remain the same as death rate in 2019.

Does this makes sense?

[erolz66]

The way I figure, it is going to take the same amount of time from start of the Covid-19, say January 2020 to end of Covid-19, whenever that may be, to get accurate number of dead from Covid-19 by using past, present and future ONS figures of number of the dead. I know, it is confusing a little, so let me break it down what I mean.

Let’s assume for the sake of this exercise that Covid-19 will end December 2020.

We then need to wait until December 2021 to get the new average Death numbers for 2021 to compare it with the average death numbers for 2019 to compare the difference.

It is proven without dispute that the present number of dead is much higher than the average numbers for last year. The only question needs to be determined is whether the excess deaths thus far from last year’s average death rate are, that they died FROM Covid-19 or they died WITH Covid-19?

It is very possible many of the dead in 2020 were taken from future deaths, mainly the elderly which could not be defended against Covid-19 in 2020, which they will fall into the category of dying WITH Covid-19. As a result, the death numbers for 2021 will be much lower than 2019.

If the excess deaths in 2020 are people whom died FROM Covid-19, then the death rate in 2021 will remain the same as death rate in 2019.

Does this makes sense?

Yes it makes sense. My 2 ps worth

We do already know as fact that in terms of the number of deaths from any cause occurring in a single week (In England and wales) that since the virus appeared we have seen higher totals than in any previous week in any previous year since at least 1968 and probably since 1917. This gives us a fact 'guide' to the scale of this current ongoing event. It is NOT in scale measured this way akin to regular flu spikes seen every ten years or so. It is bigger in scale than anything seen in the last 50 years and most probably 100 years. We know this as fact. People still keep denying these facts.

If someone dies in week 17 that had the virus not appeared they would have died anyway within a week, then they will boost week 17 figures by one and decrease week 18 by one. If they would have died in a month anyway, then they would boost week 17 by 1 and decrease week 20/21 by one. You can take this to any time period you like. 1 Year, 3 years. If you take it to 110 years then everyone dying today of covid would be people who would have died anyway if covid had not appeared. This is why talking of saving lives is just confusing and not the right way to talk or think about this. Talk should be of how measures do or do not extend lifespans or not and to what degree. Not if they are 'saving lives'. or not.

Some of the drop from week 17 total deaths to week 18 totals deaths WILL be down to people who just died a 'week early' because of covid. But if it IS a 'week early' then they will be a 'negative' in week 18 figures. Have to be.

There is factual meaning in the weekly figures, the monthly figures, the yearly figures and the 5 yearly figures. There is no magic 'time period' that suddenly delivers 'answers' when it is hit. A year is just as arbitrary as a week or 5 years in this sense. The bottom line is that what one of the very first experts Tim quoted back in 30th March (though then it was in support of a 'its all over exaggerated' narrative) is still true now.

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?

The answer to that in England and Wales is a yes more are dying and in numbers that are higher than anything seen before since at least 1968 and probably since 1917.

[Tim Drayton]

I can't find a figure for the UK, but the severe flu epidemic of 2017-18 claimed 61,000 lives in the USA according to official sources:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

There are currently reported to have been 85,000 Covid deaths in the US. Yes, according to the figures as they stand, Covid has exacted a heavier toll but has not yet proved to be anything near as deadly as certain alarmist forecasts were predicting.

[Tim Drayton]

It has all happened before. For example, in the UK in 1951:

“Influenza activity started to increase in Liverpool, England, in late December 1950. The weekly death rate reached a peak in mid-January 1951 that was ≈40% higher than the peak of the 1918–19 pandemic, reflecting a rapid and unprecedented increase in deaths, which lasted for ≈5 weeks.”

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/4/05-0695_article

[erolz66]

How much time will you spend Tim trying to refute fact ?

Since this outbreak weekly deaths in England and Wales have recorded two weeks that show more people die in both of those weeks than in any single week since at least 1968 outbreak. That is a just a fact. Do you deny this fact ?

Do you think the expert you quoted on 30th March was talking nonsense ?

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?

Are we sharing the same meaning here for the word 'simplest' ? Do we now know as fact if more people are dying in England and Wales 'than we would expect to die anyway in a given week' ? More than have ever dies in a week since at least 1968 outbreak and probably since 1917/8 outbreak ?

Will you ever stop digging your confirmation bias hole ?

[Tim Drayton]

Interesting. In a 45-second clip we hear what UK Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty had to say about Covid-19 at a recent briefing attended by Boris Johnson:

https://youtu.be/_AoNIXL3NmA