Tim Drayton wrote:erolz66 wrote:Tim Drayton wrote:Yes, it seemed reasonable based on the data to hand at the time to describe this as a virus of a magnitude that passes round every decade or so, and based on current data it could better be described as one of a magnitude that goes round every few decades or so.
No it only seems reasonable if you first chose to ignore the FACT data we DO have in favour of 'calculations' and 'extrapolation and guesses of numbers we do not yet have. We know as FACT that more people have died since this virus appeared in two consecutive weeks England and Wales than have EVER died in ANY weekly period before since at least 1968 and probably since 1917/8. That is just FACT. There is NO WAY in the face of these FACTS to come to a reasonable conclusion that this virus is of similar magnitude to those that pass around every decade or so. WE ALREADY KNOW it is of greater magnitude than ANY and ALL of those in terms of numbers of people who die in a single week because of them.
Yes, but as per the ONS figures there are far more excess deaths than those attributable to Covid-19, so they show that other factors are involved as well. If you prefer to cherry pick the figures and interpret them in a way that confirms your bias, you are of course welcome to do so.
There is no cherry picking and no interpretation. that is the whole point I have been making for 6 weeks now. There is just the FACT that since covid-19 started England and Wales has recorded two weeks with death totals higher than ANY weekly death total ever seen before since at least 1968 and probably since 1917/8. No cherry picking. No interpretation. No extrapolation. No rough estimates. No multiplying this % by that number. Just cold hard fact from the plain simple indisputable numbers we have so far.
The ONLY way you can introduce any 'discrepancy' is to NOT use the numbers that can not be disputed (all deaths any cause) and start using the ones that can be disputed (cause of death). Which is what you do BECAUSE the numbers that can not be disputed do not fit with the side you have pre chosen. You HAVE to use the guess numbers that measure something that itself is opinion. That is what your confirmation bias FORCES you to have to do.
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As an aside.
The UK government for 7 weeks used and showed slides showing where the UK ranked vs other EU countries in terms of numbers of confirmed positive test and deaths from covid-19. Then once the UK had climbed to the top of such lists they stopped using such comparisons on the basis they 'were not valid comparisons and it's too early to make such comparisons'. How stupid do they think the sheep are ?
Tim for several weeks used the weekly ONS total deaths all causes figures to show how this current outbreak was no different from previous flu outbreaks seen every 10 years or so. Then once these numbers showed that actually this virus outbreak was happening whilst weekly deaths from all causes reached peaks never before seen since at least 1968 he stopped using such figures arguing that other unknown figures were the ones to use or that these figures were some how 'unsound' or 'dubious' because there were also guess figures about cause of death that were lower than the excess vs 5 year average of these weekly figures. How stupid do you think us sheep are Tim ?
