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[erolz66]

As to your question, as far as I know, only two wars have ever been described as "world wars" and one took place in 1914-1918 and the other took place in 1939-1945, so, no they don't happen every decade or so.

Do the ONS figures show us that in terms of total deaths all causes spikes this current event is ALREADY bigger than any previous event other than (possibly) 1967/8 and 1917/8 ?

[Tim Drayton]

Is what is happening with this virus, nothing out of the realm of the unusual and just akin to flu virus outbreaks that go around every decade or so , or not Tim?

Yes, I believe so. Compare it to what happened in the 1968 Hong Kong epidemic.

As a man keen on discrepancies you seen no discrepancy with having to use and event that happen 52 years ago as proof that it is something that happens every decade or so ? None at all ?

Or let me make it even simpler for you. Would you claim that world wars are something that happen every decade or so ?

your confirmation bias is showing real bad on this one Tim.

From your favourite source:
“In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales.
…
Over one-third (34.7%) of all excess winter deaths were caused by respiratory diseases.”

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... o2017final

If we assume the 34.7% to be down to the flu, that makes for around 17,385 flu deaths that winter.

Do you understand what Excess WINTER deaths are Tim ? What the measurement measures ? What the formula for it is ? It is the measurement of how many more people die in WINTER than SUMMER in a given year. Try reading the very thing you THINK shows what you want it to show but in fact that does not show it at all, unless you are drenched in the great smell of confirmation bias.

When you are in a confirmation bias hole as big as the one you have dug yourself in to, you might be well advised to stop digging.

Shall we try and get back to reality for a moment ?

In reality no sane sensible person would try and claim that world wars are events that happen every decade or so. There has to be a reason why someone apparent sane and normal would try and make such a claim.

In reality the FACTS are that excess deaths seen in ONS mortality data are ALREADY greater than any previous such spikes seen since AT LEAST 1968 and arguably are as big as that or even greater. FACT.

Yes, and people don't die of flu in the summer, so by multiplying the number of excess winter deaths by the factor of 34.7%, said to be the proportion of all excess winter deaths caused by respiratory diseases, we come up with a rough figure for the number of flu deaths in 2017-2018 in which there was a severe epidemic.

[Tim Drayton]

As to your question, as far as I know, only two wars have ever been described as "world wars" and one took place in 1914-1918 and the other took place in 1939-1945, so, no they don't happen every decade or so.

Do the ONS figures show us that in terms of total deaths all causes spikes this current event is ALREADY bigger than any previous event other than (possibly) 1967/8 and 1917/8 ?

Sorry, but you have me bamboozled. The relevance to all this of world wars is?

[erolz66]

You have missed the point I am afraid, which is: why is the Guardian no longer capable of doing this kind of principled reporting with something very similar happening now?

As you missed mine. At least mine is true / valid.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... gs-carnage

[Tim Drayton]

As to your question, as far as I know, only two wars have ever been described as "world wars" and one took place in 1914-1918 and the other took place in 1939-1945, so, no they don't happen every decade or so.

Do the ONS figures show us that in terms of total deaths all causes spikes this current event is ALREADY bigger than any previous event other than (possibly) 1967/8 and 1917/8 ?

If I have understood correctly, you would need to compare like for like and find the figures for deaths from all causes. As far as I know, deaths were below average for the 2019-2020 winter, so it all depends on which period you take figures for.

[erolz66]

As to your question, as far as I know, only two wars have ever been described as "world wars" and one took place in 1914-1918 and the other took place in 1939-1945, so, no they don't happen every decade or so.

Do the ONS figures show us that in terms of total deaths all causes spikes this current event is ALREADY bigger than any previous event other than (possibly) 1967/8 and 1917/8 ?

Sorry, but you have me bamboozled. The relevance to all this of world wars is?

Yeah a bout of confirmation bias as bad you have got can do that.

I will take it slow and simple for you.

Using the 'total death all causes' figures - you know the ones that DO NOT require any 'massaging' , any 'multiplying % against anything else, that do NOT give us 'rough figures' we know as fact that the scale of deaths in two consecutive weeks are higher than in ANY previous weekly period since 1967/8 and possibly since 1917/8. More people in the England and Wales have died in both of these consecutive weeks than in ANY week previous until as far back as 1968 and quite possibly as far back as 1917/8. This is just fact that we now know.

This then is the ongoing event that you claimed and STILL claim is akin to events that happen every 10 years or so. Yet is actually akin to events that have only occurred TWICE in the last 100 years. Just like World Wars. World wars are NOT events that occur every 10 years or so. THIS event is not one that occurs every 10 years or so.

Any less bamboozled yet ?

[Tim Drayton]

How virus deaths peak and fall – lockdown or no lockdown. Figures from Sweden:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_ ... _in_Sweden

[erolz66]

As to your question, as far as I know, only two wars have ever been described as "world wars" and one took place in 1914-1918 and the other took place in 1939-1945, so, no they don't happen every decade or so.

Do the ONS figures show us that in terms of total deaths all causes spikes this current event is ALREADY bigger than any previous event other than (possibly) 1967/8 and 1917/8 ?

If I have understood correctly, you would need to compare like for like and find the figures for deaths from all causes. As far as I know, deaths were below average for the 2019-2020 winter, so it all depends on which period you take figures for.

The total deaths from all causes recorded in week 16 and 17 are higher than any week ever for as long as the figures have been collected in exactly the same way by exactly the same body (25 years odd). They are higher than ANY week with possible exception of some week in 1968, where we do not have exactly comparable figures collected by the same body in same way. These are the FACTS. The more you just respond to them being pointed out with dissembling the more you show how totally dominated by confirmation bias you are.

Your only get out here Tim is to admit 'although I said this event is akin to flu spikes events we see every 10 years or so, back when we had limited data, I recognise that with the data we now have that was an underestimate, but having admitted that I still think the reaction to it is disproportional because of media hype and people being sheep and I still think big pharma and bill gates are driving this media exaggeration'

That you can NOT say something like this is PROOF of how bad your 'confirmation bias' really is and i shown by the lengths you will go to to try and prove to yourself and others that you are not suffering from such bias.

[Tim Drayton]

As to your question, as far as I know, only two wars have ever been described as "world wars" and one took place in 1914-1918 and the other took place in 1939-1945, so, no they don't happen every decade or so.

Do the ONS figures show us that in terms of total deaths all causes spikes this current event is ALREADY bigger than any previous event other than (possibly) 1967/8 and 1917/8 ?

Sorry, but you have me bamboozled. The relevance to all this of world wars is?

Yeah a bout of confirmation bias as bad you have got can do that.

I will take it slow and simple for you.

Using the 'total death all causes' figures - you know the ones that DO NOT require any 'massaging' , any 'multiplying % against anything else, that do NOT give us 'rough figures' we know as fact that the scale of deaths in two consecutive weeks are higher than in ANY previous weekly period since 1967/8 and possibly since 1917/8. More people in the England and Wales have died in both of these consecutive weeks than in ANY week previous until as far back as 1968 and quite possibly as far back as 1917/8. This is just fact that we now know.

This then is the ongoing event that you claimed and STILL claim is akin to events that happen every 10 years or so. Yet is actually akin to events that have only occurred TWICE in the last 100 years. Just like World Wars. World wars are NOT events that occur every 10 years or so. THIS event is not one that occurs every 10 years or so.

Any less bamboozled yet ?

If you cherry pick those two weeks and compare them to the comparable two weeks in other years, your calculation works. Given that deaths were below average this year until those two weeks, though, if you were to base your comparison on a longer period, say the first 18 weeks of every year, I don't think you would find anything spectacular for 2020.

World wars have only happened twice ever, as far as I know. Not that I see the relevance.

[erolz66]

How virus deaths peak and fall – lockdown or no lockdown. Figures from Sweden:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_ ... _in_Sweden

Would not be trying to shift the goal posts would you Tim ? No because that would be something someone with confirmation bias who was dissembling would do.

The highest total weekly deaths seen since this event started in the UK (England and Wales) are higher than ANY previous week since at least 1968 and probably since 1917/8
The highest total weekly deaths seen since this event started in the Sweden are higher than ANY previous week since at least 1968 and probably since 1917/8

This is NOT an event that is seen every decade or so. It is an ongoing event that already is AT BEST bigger than ANYTHING seen since 1967/8 and most probably since 1917/18.

cyprus47300-1330.html#p896583

Someone here is in SERIOUS denial.