Cyprus-Forum.com

[repulsewarrior]

Cyprus the fifth safest travel destination in 2020.

https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articl ... ews-latest

Britain ranked 29, America 44, Egypt and Turkey 65 and 69th respectively.

[cyprusgrump]

You seem to be postulating the whole world's population catching the virus, with a 7% mortality rate. Thus 540+ million dead? Armageddon.

Spanish flu, the most virulent pandemic in human history, was highly infectious and contracted by a third of the world's population. It was quite deadly, with a mortality rate of 2.5%, AFAIUI resulting in a (disputed) figure of between 17 - 50 million deaths, at a time when the population was 1.5 billion. Do you think your forecast of over half a billion deaths (currently it's about 280k) is realistic? That would obviously totally eclipse the Spanish flu experience and make the Black Death look like a picnic outing.

I read a fascinating article about Spanish Flu yesterday...

Indeed, the physical effects of the second wave are the source of much of the horror now associated with the Spanish Flu. The lips, cheeks and extremities of those whose lungs had been compromised by pneumonia would turn blue, lavender and then almost black, as they began to drown in their own fluids. Many would haemorrhage blood, expelling it out of their mouths and nostrils. And the end was mercifully quick, too. Some people were reported to have fallen dead where they stood.

It was somewhat different to Covid...

[Londonrake]

It was somewhat different to Covid...

Indeed. Studies in China, South Korea and a recent extensive one in Heinsberg, Germany (a Covid “hot spot”) have shown the infection as being far more widespread than earlier thought; moreover, 20-25% of those contracting it were asymptomatic, ie not even realizing they’ve had it. That wasn’t a feature of Spanish flu. You were left in no doubt.

[Londonrake]

In fairness, I should perhaps qualify that by adding, historically nasty viruses have sometimes shown a nasty tendency to go in for nasty mutations.

A virus which kills its host is of course a failure though. So, conversely, there can be benign mutations. The trick, after all, is for both to exist happily in symbiosis.

[erolz66]

he believes that lock downs like the ones in Cyprus are a waste of time, and will cause unnecessary economic mayhem with no change in the end result. Which suggests there will be multiple waves. As these countries come out of lock down, and another, and another over many years which also suggests he doesn't believe there will be no vaccine.

He starts the interview by saying

You introduced me by saying I would say you [australia] got it all wrong [lock down]. I DO NOT THINK YOU GOT IT ALL WRONG".

This you now paraphrase as him saying "he believes that lock downs like the ones in Cyprus are a waste of time," !!!!

He says nothing like 'lockdown will cause unnecessary economic mayhem" at all.

He says he thinks (guesses) that the fatality rate of covid-19 is higher than that of flu around twice as high but not 10 times as high.

-------------

One of the FIRST experts Tim quoted way back in March 30th , 6 weeks ago, said

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?

FACTS from UK ONS figures on total deaths all causes

Week 14 - 59% more people died than we would expect (5 year average) in that given week. This is fourth highest weekly death spike since 1993, which is when this data started to be collected in this way
Week 15 - 76% more people died than we would expect (5 year average) in that given week. This is now fourth highest weekly death spike since 1993, which is when this data started to be collected in this way
Week 16 - 113% more people died than we would expect (5 year average) in that given week. This is highest weekly death spike since 1993, which is when this data started to be collected in this way
Week 17 - 110% more people died than we would expect (5 year average) in that given week. This is now second highest weekly death spike since 1993, with week 16 being the highest, so BOTH weeks 16 and 17 are higher than any previous spike seen since 1993

These are the FACTS. Not guess. Just cold hard FACTS

Some of these massive increases in excess deaths will not be because of covid-19 directly but will be indirect consequences of covid-19. Deaths not from coivd-19 but deaths that would not have happened if covid-19 had not happened. The EVIDENCE we have so far is that of these deaths not of coivd-19 directly but because of it indirectly is NOT related to the severity of lock down measures. These 'collateral deaths' because of covid 19 are the same REGARDLESS of the serverity of lock down. The evidence for this is Sweden's excess deaths , that did not lock down harshly, are almost identical to the UK's that did. In any and every pandemic there will be deaths directly related to the virus causing the pandemic and deaths not directly from that virus but that would not have happen without it. What ever you do or do not so , this will be true .

A child can understand that if you get covid-19 and have a severe reaction to it, in the first three months of the initial outbreak, your chances of dying or suffering severe morbidity from it will be GREATER than if you get is one year after the initial outbreak even if there is no overloading of health systems in the first three months.

[Paphitis]

he believes that lock downs like the ones in Cyprus are a waste of time, and will cause unnecessary economic mayhem with no change in the end result. Which suggests there will be multiple waves. As these countries come out of lock down, and another, and another over many years which also suggests he doesn't believe there will be no vaccine.

He starts the interview by saying

You introduced me by saying I would say you [australia] got it all wrong [lock down]. I DO NOT THINK YOU GOT IT ALL WRONG".

This you now paraphrase as him saying "he believes that lock downs like the ones in Cyprus are a waste of time," !!!!

He says nothing like 'lockdown will cause unnecessary economic mayhem" at all.

He says he thinks (guesses) that the fatality rate of covid-19 is higher than that of flu around twice as high but not 10 times as high.

-------------

One of the FIRST experts Tim quoted way back in March 30th , 6 weeks ago, said

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?

FACTS from UK ONS figures on total deaths all causes

Week 14 - 59% more people died than we would expect (5 year average) in that given week. This is fourth highest weekly death spike since 1993, which is when this data started to be collected in this way
Week 15 - 76% more people died than we would expect (5 year average) in that given week. This is now fourth highest weekly death spike since 1993, which is when this data started to be collected in this way
Week 16 - 113% more people died than we would expect (5 year average) in that given week. This is highest weekly death spike since 1993, which is when this data started to be collected in this way
Week 17 - 110% more people died than we would expect (5 year average) in that given week. This is now second highest weekly death spike since 1993, with week 16 being the highest, so BOTH weeks 16 and 17 are higher than any previous spike seen since 1993

These are the FACTS. Not guess. Just cold hard FACTS

Some of these massive increases in excess deaths will not be because of covid-19 directly but will be indirect consequences of covid-19. Deaths not from coivd-19 but deaths that would not have happened if covid-19 had not happened. The EVIDENCE we have so far is that of these deaths not of coivd-19 directly but because of it indirectly is NOT related to the severity of lock down measures. These 'collateral deaths' because of covid 19 are the same REGARDLESS of the serverity of lock down. The evidence for this is Sweden's excess deaths , that did not lock down harshly, are almost identical to the UK's that did. In any and every pandemic there will be deaths directly related to the virus causing the pandemic and deaths not directly from that virus but that would not have happen without it. What ever you do or do not so , this will be true .

A child can understand that if you get covid-19 and have a severe reaction to it, in the first three months of the initial outbreak, your chances of dying or suffering severe morbidity from it will be GREATER than if you get is one year after the initial outbreak even if there is no overloading of health systems in the first three months.

I mentioned that. he said we didn't get it wrong but he also said we "painted ourselves into a corner". We have reduced the number of cases but we also destroyed the economy more than we had to because in his expert opinion, he only believes we have managed to delay the onset of Chy-na Virus cases.

In other words, he doesn't believe Chy-na Virus is going away and Australia will need to close its borders indefinitely to keep those wonderful statistics which obviously isn't feasible. he said that all countries that have locked down have painted themselves in a corner which is difficult to get out of. He also mentioned school closures pointing out that it will now be difficult to reopen schools for a very long time.

So basically, waste of time. Futile.

It goes with what a lot of people are saying. he is obviously advocating herd immunity. He also calls it the "silent epidemic". In other words, the real number of infected really isn't known as for all we know, millions could have had it and not know it.

It was very clear to me that he believes lock downs are futile unless you are in the predicament of the USA and many European Countries where the number of cases could outstrip the provision of medical services from the health system.

[Paphitis]

It was somewhat different to Covid...

Indeed. Studies in China, South Korea and a recent extensive one in Heinsberg, Germany (a Covid “hot spot”) have shown the infection as being far more widespread than earlier thought; moreover, 20-25% of those contracting it were asymptomatic, ie not even realizing they’ve had it. That wasn’t a feature of Spanish flu. You were left in no doubt.

Yes this seems to be the opinion of many. Basically, the 4 million odd detected cases are only a fraction of the real number. How big that real number is anyone's guess. 20, 30, 50 million?

There was a report from the USA that 20 to 25% of the new York population has had Chy-na Virus. 2 million people from the New York Burroughs alone, That's phenomenal.

But the bright side of that is that this means that the Chy-na Virus mortality rate is actually extremely minuscule. A rate of 0.37% was mentioned more than once.

[Tim Drayton]

The hard numbers show the scale of this event is biggest since (I am now convinced 1918 but take your pick, last 25 years, 1968). The other numbers that you say 'vindicate' that of excess deaths most are not covid-19, are NOT hard. They are guesses / opinions etc.

A bizarre comment given that the both sets of figures come from precisely the same source. You will find a tab at the bottom of the main page of the file you download from the ONS weekly deaths figures that takes you to a chart showing: "Weekly provisional figures on deaths registered where coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate in England and Wales". All you have to do is check how many deaths this source tells you were in excess of the five year average and compare this with the number the same source gives for people who supposedly died of Covid-19 in the same week, a figure that is known to be inflated since Covid-19 is being shown as the cause of death even when it was just a contributory factor or the virus was present in people who died for a totally different reason, and you will see the increase is far higher than the number of deaths attributed to Covid. That you consider one set of figures supplied by the same source to be "hard" and another set of figures from precisely the same source to be NOT hard is an indication of your extreme confirmation bias.

[Tim Drayton]

It was somewhat different to Covid...

Indeed. Studies in China, South Korea and a recent extensive one in Heinsberg, Germany (a Covid “hot spot”) have shown the infection as being far more widespread than earlier thought; moreover, 20-25% of those contracting it were asymptomatic, ie not even realizing they’ve had it. That wasn’t a feature of Spanish flu. You were left in no doubt.

Yes this seems to be the opinion of many. Basically, the 4 million odd detected cases are only a fraction of the real number. How big that real number is anyone's guess. 20, 30, 50 million?

There was a report from the USA that 20 to 25% of the new York population has had Chy-na Virus. 2 million people from the New York Burroughs alone, That's phenomenal.

But the bright side of that is that this means that the Chy-na Virus mortality rate is actually extremely minuscule. A rate of 0.37% was mentioned more than once.

It also means herd immunity is coming to New York. Sorry, big pharma and Bill Gates. No need for your forced vaccination in that city.

[Tim Drayton]

All this talk of dying is exaggerated. Serious scientific studies put the average chance of dying if you contract Covid at around 0.37%, less than with flu, and the chance of dying is totally negligible for healthy under 50's. You face similar risks every time you take a car onto the road.

The degree of excess death this event is resulting in is not exaggerated. Nor is 'fear of this death' about personal individual risk alone. I fear for others I care about and love because they are at greater risk than me personally. Comparing to other existing risks is all well and fine but this is in addition to those risks. It is an extra risk not an alternative one.

If there are no counter measures taken against the highly contagious Covid-19 disease, even at .37% death rate, we are looking at 26 million dead people a year just from the virus alone if no vaccine is found. WHO gives the mortality rate at 3.4% is 240 million dead people a year. That is a lot of people to just say, "Too Bad" but the economy and the rest of us must live on!

So many bizarre and twisted calculations from one who I once considered to be among the most aware and intelligent posters here. Sad. The 0.37% rate is the case fatality rate. It is the probability of dying if you catch the virus. It does not mean that 0.37% of an entire population will die in one year. You speak about these people who will die every year if no vaccine is found, as if nature did not have a mechanism for giving people immunity, which it does. Once you've had it, you're immune and once enough people become immune the virus can't spread any more. This is how it has been with all viruses over the millenia. The idea that any one virus will continue killing people in perpetuity flies in the face of all scientific and empirical knowledge. The figures you quote bear no relation to fact. The total global death figure from Covid - taking it at face value and ignoring the way it is inflated by including many cases in which the virus was simply present in people who died of other causes - stands at about 282,000. This pales into insignificance compared to the 1.35 m who lose their lives in road accidents globally every year. The only difference between the two is that the world media has abandonded its normal function and turned into a machine for pouring out one hysterical, slanted, alarmist report after another, accompanied by all sorts of garish images, about this virus to turn it into a bogeyman to scare the sheeple into submission and submit to living under a surveillance regime in the mistaken belief that Big Brother will then keep them safe. Imagine the global media did nothing but report on road accidents 24/7, cherry picking the most alarming stories and statistics and serving these up in a continuous stream accompanied by gory pictures of accidents. Would the sheeple then be demanding an end to road traffic? It is the same logic as shutting down the world economy and ushering in a depression that will rival the 1930's all because of a virus that is less deadly than the flu.