Cyprus-Forum.com

[repulsewarrior]

One more thing I would add to this. We know how to turn money (be it raised by donation, taxation or printing money and targeting new printed money) in to real amelioration for things like depression, domestic violence and suicides along with things like 'economic hardship'. The only 'block' is will. We do not not yet know how to turn money in to amelioration of death and morbidity by covid-19, not in same way. We are buying tests that do not work, PPE that is not suitable, funding research that may turn out to be futile and dead end, buying drug doses in the 100's of millions that may have no effect and loads of other things currently. For me this is a material and germane difference.
erolz66

...indeed, this (read: waste) is to be expected; the first time around. Indeed, "blame" can be assessed for being so unprepared, but in any case, (like in advertising,) knowing half will be a waste, which half?

[erolz66]

One more thing I would add to this. We know how to turn money (be it raised by donation, taxation or printing money and targeting new printed money) in to real amelioration for things like depression, domestic violence and suicides along with things like 'economic hardship'. The only 'block' is will. We do not not yet know how to turn money in to amelioration of death and morbidity by covid-19, not in same way. We are buying tests that do not work, PPE that is not suitable, funding research that may turn out to be futile and dead end, buying drug doses in the 100's of millions that may have no effect and loads of other things currently. For me this is a material and germane difference.
erolz66

...indeed, this (read: waste) is to be expected; the first time around. Indeed, "blame" can be assessed for being so unprepared, but in any case, (like in advertising,) knowing half will be a waste, which half?

I agree. My point was we have 2 things. Bad shit from covid-19. Bad shit from the effects of trying to limit speed of spread of covid. One of those things we 'know' how to mitigate the 'bad shit' with money. The other we do not. So in any judgement balancing these two things, we should remember this difference, it seems to me.

[Kikapu]

All this talk of dying is exaggerated. Serious scientific studies put the average chance of dying if you contract Covid at around 0.37%, less than with flu, and the chance of dying is totally negligible for healthy under 50's. You face similar risks every time you take a car onto the road.

The degree of excess death this event is resulting in is not exaggerated. Nor is 'fear of this death' about personal individual risk alone. I fear for others I care about and love because they are at greater risk than me personally. Comparing to other existing risks is all well and fine but this is in addition to those risks. It is an extra risk not an alternative one.

If there are no counter measures taken against the highly contagious Covid-19 disease, even at .37% death rate, we are looking at 26 million dead people a year just from the virus alone if no vaccine is found. WHO gives the mortality rate at 3.4% is 240 million dead people a year. That is a lot of people to just say, "Too Bad" but the economy and the rest of us must live on!

By the way, the WHO 3.4% Covid-19 death rate was back in March. According to my calculations, it is at 4.4% as of now, which translates to 340 million dead per year if the whole world’s population were to contract the disease. Slightly higher than contracting the flu, no?

[Londonrake]

But the whole world's population isn't going to get infected, is it? . So, your figure's alarmist in extremis and thus pretty meaningless.

[Kikapu]

But the whole world's population isn't going to get infected, is it? . So, your figure's alarmist in extremis and thus pretty meaningless.

I said if the virus is left unchecked, the potential for it spreading to the whole population of the world is very real.

By the way, I will now revise the death rate of the world’s coronavirus to 7%.

Earlier I was using death numbers as 180,000+ when it is 280,000+.

That would raise the world’s death rate to 540+ million if left unchecked.

[Londonrake]

You seem to be postulating the whole world's population catching the virus, with a 7% mortality rate. Thus 540+ million dead? Armageddon.

Spanish flu, the most virulent pandemic in human history, was highly infectious and contracted by a third of the world's population. It was quite deadly, with a mortality rate of 2.5%, AFAIUI resulting in a (disputed) figure of between 17 - 50 million deaths, at a time when the population was 1.5 billion. Do you think your forecast of over half a billion deaths (currently it's about 280k) is realistic? That would obviously totally eclipse the Spanish flu experience and make the Black Death look like a picnic outing.

[Kikapu]

You seem to be postulating the whole world's population catching the virus, with a 7% mortality rate. Thus 540+ million dead? Armageddon.

Spanish flu, the most virulent pandemic in human history, was highly infectious and contracted by a third of the world's population. It was quite deadly, with a mortality rate of 2.5%, AFAIUI resulting in a (disputed) figure of between 17 - 50 million deaths, at a time when the population was 1.5 billion. Do you think your forecast of over half a billion deaths (currently it's about 280k) is realistic? That would obviously totally eclipse the Spanish flu experience.

Let’s look at the facts.

Spanish flu was back in 1918 where only few people traveled globally which was mainly by ships taking weeks and months to get from A to B, and yet it infected 3rd of world’s population and killed many millions as there could not be any accuracy of the death numbers. For all we know far more could have been infected and far more could have died.

Fast forward to 2020, a century into the present where millions travel across the globe in matter of hours in jets for pleasure and business, therefore, in today’s world we are far more efficient in infecting the whole world with infectious disease such as Covid-19 if it were left unchecked. So yes, 540 million dead is not unreasonable amount in comparison to the era of the Spanish Flu back in 1918-1919.

[Londonrake]

Sorry - but actually you're not being realistic. As with a good deal to do with Corvid-19 you're being hyperbolically alarmist.

So far about 280k bave perished. And, as has been seen by the debate raging in here, that figure's contentious. I respectfully suggest your view, that over half a billion could die, is a wild exaggeration. A fantasy.if you like.

[Kikapu]

Sorry - but actually you're not being realistic. As with a good deal to do with Corvid-19 you're being hyperbolically alarmist.

So far about 280k bave perished. And, as has been seen by the debate raging in here, that figure's contentious. I respectfully suggest your view, that over half a billion could die, is a wild exaggeration. A fantasy.if you like.

You are keep missing the operative words I have been writing, which is “if left unchecked”, the Covid-19 that is.

If there had been no lockdowns, no closing of the borders, no travel limits, no cancellation of events in sports, theaters, concerts, conventions, restaurants, hotels, cruise ships, flights, entertainment centers, Disney land, Las Vegas and Social Distancing. If no action were taken to confront the infectious stealth Covid-19 disease, we would have been in lock step with the deadly Spanish Flu a century earlier. Fortunately we will fair much better than those of 1918-1919, but it will come at a cost, which is the good life and the economy we have come to be accustomed to, will be reduced proportionately to how many lives we want to save.

[Paphitis]

Sorry - but actually you're not being realistic. As with a good deal to do with Corvid-19 you're being hyperbolically alarmist.

So far about 280k bave perished. And, as has been seen by the debate raging in here, that figure's contentious. I respectfully suggest your view, that over half a billion could die, is a wild exaggeration. A fantasy.if you like.

You are keep missing the operative words I have been writing, which is “if left unchecked”, the Covid-19 that is.

If there had been no lockdowns, no closing of the borders, no travel limits, no cancellation of events in sports, theaters, concerts, conventions, restaurants, hotels, cruise ships, flights, entertainment centers, Disney land, Las Vegas and Social Distancing. If no action were taken to confront the infectious stealth Covid-19 disease, we would have been in lock step with the deadly Spanish Flu a century earlier. Fortunately we will fair much better than those of 1918-1919, but it will come at a cost, which is the good life and the economy we have come to be accustomed to, will be reduced proportionately to how many lives we want to save.

The death rate is also contentious because many experts are suggesting a real mortality rate of 0.37%

And as we have been discussing for a while now, the 280K deaths due to Chy-na Virus doesn't seem to be accurate. We have had medical professionals confess that they were pressured to attribute deaths as Chy-na Virus victims. Which goes a long way to explain some of the erratic statistics worldwide ranging from 1% in Australia to 15% elsewhere.

I have been seeing other reports from actual experts (epidemiologists) who suggest that there were far more infections than those actually detected as most cases will have no symptoms. Which means a lot more people have actually been infected and didn't know about it and do not show in the statistics. Whatever that number is, the death rate will be far lower than those actually reported as the statistics only capture cases that had symptoms and were diagnosed.

For example, Australia reported about 7000 detected cases, but could have had upwards to more than 50,000 cases of people that had Chy-na Virus. That's the suggestion made by these experts. And with 100 actual deaths, the percentage or mortality rate is much lower than the statistics show.

And if you are to believe Sweden's Government Advisor, he seems to think that over a period of time, 99% of people will get it. He doesn't believe the Virus will be contained, and that the only control measure is to flatten the curve with the objective to keep demand for health services lower than the States capability to provide health services.

he believes that lock downs like the ones in Cyprus are a waste of time, and will cause unnecessary economic mayhem with no change in the end result. Which suggests there will be multiple waves. As these countries come out of lock down, and another, and another over many years which also suggests he doesn't believe there will be no vaccine.