Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz66]

2) We come out of Lockdown and there is a second wave of infections.

I think this is the most likely scenario. I think the response will be, Lockdown worked right? We just didn't do it long enough or hard enough! Back to Lockdown.

I think this scenario is likely and to a degree it is already playing out in earlier hit areas. However the potential is we come out of lockdown , infections increase and we respond better this time round. in more targeted / localised and effective ways to get infection spread down again with vastly less damage to economy and ancillary things. Basically getting better and better over time at both managing and limiting spread without doing massive generic damage to the economy.

[Tim Drayton]

Lots of figures are being bandied around. Here is another one:

150,000 Brits will die an 'avoidable death' during coronavirus pandemic through depression, domestic violence and suicides

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cides.html

[erolz66]

So some of you might have noticed I am a big fan of 'the chart' and how it gives the clearest simplest view of raw hopkins numbers on confirmed cases in last week vs total to date. https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

Well I emailed the guy who produced the chart (in conjunction with others) earlier today to ask if he could consider adding a 'whole world' option to the list selector. A mere few hours later he mailed me back with a link to version that contains such. Pretty awesome response in my book! It's here https://bchurchill.github.io/covidtrends/ for anyone interested. You have to scroll down the country selector list and there is option 'world'. Play the chart over time using play button at the bottom.

[erolz66]

Lots of figures are being bandied around. Here is another one:

150,000 Brits will die an 'avoidable death' during coronavirus pandemic through depression, domestic violence and suicides

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cides.html

Yeah lots of meaningless numbers / guesses (ranging from informed guess to total fantasy) are being chucked around everywhere. But if you want hard fact numbers that you can use to think for yourself and protect from such media (all of it main stream and non main stream) hype, then you have them. You were first to post them here Tim. What is also being chucked around is lots of 'bogus science' - like there definitely will never be a vaccine because this virus is in the coronavirus family, like flu and the cold and thus this means there can be no vaccine. Usually followed by equally bogus 'therefores' like therefore lock down is pointless and doing more harm than good.

[Tim Drayton]

Lots of figures are being bandied around. Here is another one:

150,000 Brits will die an 'avoidable death' during coronavirus pandemic through depression, domestic violence and suicides

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cides.html

Yeah lots of meaningless numbers / guesses (ranging from informed guess to total fantasy) are being chucked around everywhere. But if you want hard fact numbers that you can use to think for yourself and protect from such media (all of it main stream and non main stream) hype, then you have them. You were first to post them here Tim. What is also being chucked around is lots of 'bogus science' - like there definitely will never be a vaccine because this virus is in the coronavirus family, like flu and the cold and thus this means there can be no vaccine. Usually followed by equally bogus 'therefores' like therefore lock down is pointless and doing more harm than good.

Yes, but the figures you are so fond of tend to vindicate the figure in the above article in that they show the number of excess deaths to be far higher than the number of deaths attributed to Covid.

[erolz66]

Lots of figures are being bandied around. Here is another one:

150,000 Brits will die an 'avoidable death' during coronavirus pandemic through depression, domestic violence and suicides

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cides.html

Yeah lots of meaningless numbers / guesses (ranging from informed guess to total fantasy) are being chucked around everywhere. But if you want hard fact numbers that you can use to think for yourself and protect from such media (all of it main stream and non main stream) hype, then you have them. You were first to post them here Tim. What is also being chucked around is lots of 'bogus science' - like there definitely will never be a vaccine because this virus is in the coronavirus family, like flu and the cold and thus this means there can be no vaccine. Usually followed by equally bogus 'therefores' like therefore lock down is pointless and doing more harm than good.

Yes, but the figures you are so fond of tend to vindicate the figure in the above article in that they show the number of excess deaths to be far higher than the number of deaths attributed to Covid.

The hard numbers show the scale of this event is biggest since (I am now convinced 1918 but take your pick, last 25 years, 1968). The other numbers that you say 'vindicate' that of excess deaths most are not covid-19, are NOT hard. They are guesses / opinions etc. Nor do they stack up if you blame 'lockdown' for excess deaths and compare ONS hard numbers with Swedens hard numbers (see using ONLY hard numbers). Seeing same degree of excess in both despite differences in lock down, to date.

I do find it 'amusing' that so many of those who have for at least last 15 years spent all their effort an energy poo pooing and discrediting any and all analysis that sought to put numbers on 'how many people have died from austerity measures' are now using the same or similar 'analysis' to 'prove' that covid is not really deadly it is just our response to it that is causing all the deaths we are seeing.

[Kikapu]

All this talk of dying is exaggerated. Serious scientific studies put the average chance of dying if you contract Covid at around 0.37%, less than with flu, and the chance of dying is totally negligible for healthy under 50's. You face similar risks every time you take a car onto the road.

The degree of excess death this event is resulting in is not exaggerated. Nor is 'fear of this death' about personal individual risk alone. I fear for others I care about and love because they are at greater risk than me personally. Comparing to other existing risks is all well and fine but this is in addition to those risks. It is an extra risk not an alternative one.

If there are no counter measures taken against the highly contagious Covid-19 disease, even at .37% death rate, we are looking at 26 million dead people a year just from the virus alone if no vaccine is found. WHO gives the mortality rate at 3.4% is 240 million dead people a year. That is a lot of people to just say, "Too Bad" but the economy and the rest of us must live on!

[erolz66]

Lots of figures are being bandied around. Here is another one:

150,000 Brits will die an 'avoidable death' during coronavirus pandemic through depression, domestic violence and suicides

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cides.html

Yeah lots of meaningless numbers / guesses (ranging from informed guess to total fantasy) are being chucked around everywhere. But if you want hard fact numbers that you can use to think for yourself and protect from such media (all of it main stream and non main stream) hype, then you have them. You were first to post them here Tim. What is also being chucked around is lots of 'bogus science' - like there definitely will never be a vaccine because this virus is in the coronavirus family, like flu and the cold and thus this means there can be no vaccine. Usually followed by equally bogus 'therefores' like therefore lock down is pointless and doing more harm than good.

Yes, but the figures you are so fond of tend to vindicate the figure in the above article in that they show the number of excess deaths to be far higher than the number of deaths attributed to Covid.

The hard numbers show the scale of this event is biggest since (I am now convinced 1918 but take your pick, last 25 years, 1968). The other numbers that you say 'vindicate' that of excess deaths most are not covid-19, are NOT hard. They are guesses / opinions etc. Nor do they stack up if you blame 'lockdown' for excess deaths and compare ONS hard numbers with Swedens hard numbers (see using ONLY hard numbers). Seeing same degree of excess in both despite differences in lock down, to date.

I do find it 'amusing' that so many of those who have for at least last 15 years spent all their effort an energy poo pooing and discrediting any and all analysis that sought to put numbers on 'how many people have died from austerity measures' are now using the same or similar 'analysis' to 'prove' that covid is not really deadly it is just our response to it that is causing all the deaths we are seeing.

One more thing I would add to this. We know how to turn money (be it raised by donation, taxation or printing money and targeting new printed money) in to real amelioration for things like depression, domestic violence and suicides along with things like 'economic hardship'. The only 'block' is will. We do not not yet know how to turn money in to amelioration of death and morbidity by covid-19, not in same way. We are buying tests that do not work, PPE that is not suitable, funding research that may turn out to be futile and dead end, buying drug doses in the 100's of millions that may have no effect and loads of other things currently. For me this is a material and germane difference.

[erolz66]

So some of you might have noticed I am a big fan of 'the chart' and how it gives the clearest simplest view of raw hopkins numbers on confirmed cases in last week vs total to date. https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

Well I emailed the guy who produced the chart (in conjunction with others) earlier today to ask if he could consider adding a 'whole world' option to the list selector. A mere few hours later he mailed me back with a link to version that contains such. Pretty awesome response in my book! It's here https://bchurchill.github.io/covidtrends/ for anyone interested. You have to scroll down the country selector list and there is option 'world'. Play the chart over time using play button at the bottom.

Here is link to 'the chart' comparing a few countries with the new 'total world' option as well now in case anyone is interested.

https://bchurchill.github.io/covidtrend ... lingtime=7

[repulsewarrior]

...yes, even if there will be the same number dead (which it seems there likely will be), the fact that collectively we (as the whole world; Humanity) made this effort, demonstrates to us that such efforts are possible. In effect there is a learning curve to these efforts, futuristically speaking (i.e.the response will be better organised; it will not be the first time).

Oddly enough, taxes, come to mind, talking about "herd immunity", and behavioural tools; how governments move us individually, to act...

What is a tax's purpose beyond the collection of revenues? Are we not motivated to change our habits to pay less in taxes? Indeed, if a tax directs us to save for our retirement, we will; if as a result there is a positive tax outcome for the payer: yet there is also a positive outcome for the receiver. Extrapolate therefore, what governments can do by providing choices where onerous choices, like Income Tax, are offset by educating oneself, resulting in a better social outcome.

...will we now allow the government to manage our time, as they do our money, (and social habits)? The COVID epidemic will not immediately conclude with such a result, but it has certainly opened the door to such a possibility.

It is our choice, to riot in the streets, even to take up arms against authority and custom. We did not this time; like taxes, we chose to pay its price. As a result now, there is the expectation, (if there is a next time), of an improved result.

...i am very hopeful frankly. The worst is yet to come beyond the Occidental world; it's not "over".