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[erolz66]

Interesting interview from Sweden's former Chief epidemiologist and current advisor Johan Giesecke.

He seems to think countries that have strict isolation have not got it wrong but have painted themselves into a corner and it will be interesting to see how they extract themselves from their entrapment.

What I said cyprus47300-1380.html#p896657

The reality is Sweden has not taken a different objective to anywhere else, just a different means and degree of achieving that same objective - namely to slow infection in the initial phase. Now if they had pursued an objective of 'lets get everyone infected as soon as possible and get this over with' then they really would be the 'exception'. They have not done this.

He believes Chy-na Virus is here to say.

The only people I have seen touting fantasies like 'it will just miraculously disappear' as quickly as it appeared are the likes of Trump.

he seems to think Herd Immunity is the only way to go. He also say's that about 99% of people will get it. The reason is that most carriers won't even know they have it and will spread it. That means most cases will have no symptoms at all, or very mild symptoms that they will go under the radar.

If immunity is short term, if a vaccine is impossible or limited , if no better treatment in terms of drugs and methods and a hundred other ifs we do not yet know answer to, then yes ultimate 'herd immunity' or really 'just living with it no matter the cost in lives because there is no other choice' will be where we end up. But to declare NOW that we should set this as the objective whilst so much is still unknown strikes me as BS.

[Londonrake]

I believe that human beings always try to survive as long as possible even if it's futile in the end, but they do not walk into death all singing Kumbaya!

As a member of quite a large group of well beyond their “best before” date people I strongly agree with that. Except for the futile bit of course.

[cyprusgrump]

Interesting interview from Sweden's former Chief epidemiologist and current advisor Johan Giesecke.

He seems to think countries that have strict isolation have not got it wrong but have painted themselves into a corner and it will be interesting to see how they extract themselves from their entrapment. He believes Chy-na Virus is here to say.

As for Australia and NZ which have done very well, he acknowledged they can even nearly eliminate Chy-na Virus but what happens after that he asks. Will Australia and NZ keep their borders closed for 30 years? So the insinuation here is that Chy-na Virus could be very protracted.

he seems to think Herd Immunity is the only way to go. He also say's that about 99% of people will get it. The reason is that most carriers won't even know they have it and will spread it. That means most cases will have no symptoms at all, or very mild symptoms that they will go under the radar.

I was talking to my SiL in Auckland this morning.

She was saying that NZ was taking the 'bubble' approach - as towns became free of the virus they would be considered bubbles and you'd be able to travel between bubbles.

They also thought that, once the entire island was a 'bubble', it could be connected to the Australian 'bubble' and therefore save the economy - 40% of their tourism is from Australia.

[Paphitis]

Too much praise is given to the Swedes for not having the lockdown, but by and large, they are practicing the 2m rules and their economy is not much better than others since they are part of the global trade. On top of that, they have more cases and deaths than their neighbour countries who does have lockdowns. Swedes by nature are distant people with themselves than most neighbouring countries from no handshakes to kisses on the cheeks when greeting each other. The Swiss kiss the cheeks 3 times, which is one more than most.

As an American, the USA is the last place I would want to be at the moment as long as the coronavirus is loose. I feel very safe in Switzerland as people are very practical and responsible. I cancelled a dinner party at my place with home cooking by me for 20 people two weeks ago for today, which was planned back in February. It was well accepted by everyone as being the right thing to do. Normally I would be cleaning up at this time, but instead, I’m here with you.

What about the local economy Kikapu? All the small businesses that will tread water as opposed to go under?

Their statistics are not dire in Sweden, and much better than many countries with a full lock down. You mention Switzerland which has 3500 cases per million of population compared to Sweden which has 2500 cases per million.

Switzerland isn't far behind the USA with 4000 cases per million. So Switzerland isn't that different to the USA. So how safe do you really feel when the statistics are like this? I ask because most of the USA isn't that bad when you take New York out of the equation.

However, that isn't what I am getting at. I am talking about civil liberties here. The USA seems to be one of a select few countries that is trying to safeguard these freedoms more than most. That is something to look up to. That's because the day will come when we have to either live with Chy-na Virus like we live with cancer, flu, Asthma, allergies, and mental illness or they will actually find a vaccine for it and eliminate it from the map altogether. One of these things will occur.

But life, either way will still need to continue even if we do not eliminate Chy-na Virus. So what kind of world do we want if that is is going to happen? Do we continue to impose these restrictions indefinitely? I certainly hope not!

And why the over reaction when there are more people dieing from road accidents, suicide, and other infectious diseases?

No one wants to destroy small businesses or the larger ones. Without survival of the population from this virus, there won't be many businesses left to talk about. How many businesses were destroyed along with lives during times of wars? No one wants the virus to dictate their lives, but certain necessary measures needs to be taken to make sure most of us come out of this so that we can re-build the economy. This isn't the first time such challenges that has faced us in the history of mankind.

Switzerland is in the center of Europe which has a great economy and employs thousands of day workers who travel in from neighbouring countries. Most of the cases began from those coming in to work before closing down the borders and then locking down the country itself, but nowhere to the severity of Cyprus lockdown. In the beginning we had sky high cases per million, but that has been greatly reduced due to the lockdown and the 2m Social Distancing. Our cases and deaths now are in the low double digits and getting lower each day.

As stated before, easing the lockdowns are now happening, but it is not getting back to normality as long as the 2m SD is in effect. In many cases, the 2m SD will also destroy many parts of the economy. We can't get away from that, because now most people believe that they need to help themselves by practicing 2m SD.

Did you see the interview from Sweden's epidemiologist advisor?

How long are these restrictions going to remain in place? 10, 20, 30 years?

And I don't see a correlation between stringent lock downs and lower cases and death. The stats seem to be very erratic for whatever reason.

[Paphitis]

Interesting interview from Sweden's former Chief epidemiologist and current advisor Johan Giesecke.

He seems to think countries that have strict isolation have not got it wrong but have painted themselves into a corner and it will be interesting to see how they extract themselves from their entrapment. He believes Chy-na Virus is here to say.

As for Australia and NZ which have done very well, he acknowledged they can even nearly eliminate Chy-na Virus but what happens after that he asks. Will Australia and NZ keep their borders closed for 30 years? So the insinuation here is that Chy-na Virus could be very protracted.

he seems to think Herd Immunity is the only way to go. He also say's that about 99% of people will get it. The reason is that most carriers won't even know they have it and will spread it. That means most cases will have no symptoms at all, or very mild symptoms that they will go under the radar.

I was talking to my SiL in Auckland this morning.

She was saying that NZ was taking the 'bubble' approach - as towns became free of the virus they would be considered bubbles and you'd be able to travel between bubbles.

They also thought that, once the entire island was a 'bubble', it could be connected to the Australian 'bubble' and therefore save the economy - 40% of their tourism is from Australia.

Yes it's true! NZ Prime Minister has attended meetings with Australia's Cabinet and our 2 countries seem to be coordinating their approach.

Tomorrow, travel will be allowed between most states in Australia. Eventually all travel restrictions will be lifted and you will even be allowed to take a holiday.

Australia and NZ will eventually form their own little bubble, but for how long can we isolate from the rest of the world? 10, 20 or 30 years?

I listened to an interesting interview of one of Sweden's senior advisors. He sounded quite intelligent to me and raised some very interesting questions. I can't just ignore what this guy had to say. It's actually quite scary.

here are some interesting points.

He believes that over time, this virus will infect 99% of people. That is mind boggling. If that is true, those who caught it early on might be the lucky ones,

He also believes that this is the silent epidemic. Most people will catch it and not know they have it. If that is true, then why the lock downs? This is the second such report I have seen with a similar report from New York where some expert said that more than 1 in 5 people have caught it already. That's 20%

[Kikapu]

Kikapu:


The World is not so much changing because of this virus, the virus is being used as the reason to change the World as we know it and get people used to being controlled. It has been slowly creeping up on an unwary population for decades!

Look around you .... assuming you live in Cyprus ..... we have a curfew from 10pm to 6am, we need permission to leave our home, shops need permission to open, greater controls on gatherings, you cannot leave your district ........ and all the other restrictions and inconveniences ...... we are effectively living in a Police State! As yet we do not have armed patrols controlling movement but that could be implemented very quickly.

What will you do when the State decides your mobile requires a ‘follow-me’ app so they can track movements to track your contact with those that have the virus? What happens when a political opinion that the State does not like becomes the ‘virus’ ? It is a very frightening future ahead as all this technology can be abused!


Once they have the card and no money ...... then the CHIP will be introduced and if you refuse to have it they can switch you off as a person by cutting access to just about everything from health services and education .......... to travel! You would become a non-person!

Reading your post caused me to have a flash-back to the late 60's with the TV series "The Prisoner", so your concept is not new.

"I am not a number, I am a free man"!

[cyprusgrump]

Of course, none of us knows at the moment which is the 'right' approach and, as has been said on here several times before, only time will tell who got it right.

I think there are three scenarios:

1) We come out of Lockdown and the virus has gone. All is well.

I think this is unlikely, however my fear is what happens next winter when a similar virus strikes again? Lockdown worked right so we have to Lockdown again?

2) We come out of Lockdown and there is a second wave of infections.

I think this is the most likely scenario. I think the response will be, Lockdown worked right? We just didn't do it long enough or hard enough! Back to Lockdown.

3) Lockdown ends, we look at the evidence of who did what and realise that Lockdown made no difference.

I think (sadly) this is the least likely scenario. One thing I've learned in my 60 years on the planet is that politicians never like to admit they were wrong. Which means if/when there is a second wave or a new infection Lockdown will be chosen once again as the solution.

[Kikapu]

Of course, none of us knows at the moment which is the 'right' approach and, as has been said on here several times before, only time will tell who got it right.

3) Lockdown ends, we look at the evidence of who did what and realise that Lockdown made no difference.

Unfortunately, this option is the least to draw any conclusions from, because by all accounts, most countries in the world had imposed some form of lockdown, so there are only few cases to compare it with as Sweden comes to mind, but even then, they did practice 2m Social Distancing and by and large their economy at the moment is not far superior to the rest of the countries who had imposed lockdowns.

[Tim Drayton]

An interesting article I've just read in The Lancet...

The invisible pandemic

A sample...

These facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.

That may all be true and I expect it to be mostly true, so the question is, who wants to volunteer to die now without a lockdown or die later with a lockdown?

I believe that human beings always try to survive as long as possible even if it's futile in the end, but they do not walk into death all singing Kumbaya!

All this talk of dying is exaggerated. Serious scientific studies put the average chance of dying if you contract Covid at around 0.37%, less than with flu, and the chance of dying is totally negligible for healthy under 50's. You face similar risks every time you take a car onto the road.

[erolz66]

All this talk of dying is exaggerated. Serious scientific studies put the average chance of dying if you contract Covid at around 0.37%, less than with flu, and the chance of dying is totally negligible for healthy under 50's. You face similar risks every time you take a car onto the road.

The degree of excess death this event is resulting in is not exaggerated. Nor is 'fear of this death' about personal individual risk alone. I fear for others I care about and love because they are at greater risk than me personally. Comparing to other existing risks is all well and fine but this is in addition to those risks. It is an extra risk not an alternative one.