Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz66]

...

Indeed, many people are now dying because they cannot access medical treatment...

...

Well said, and many believe this is a contributory factor towards the massive increase in deaths in England and Wales over the past two weeks, especially as the surplus above the five-year average is far greater than the number of reported Covid deaths.

So why not discuss this. Tell me of the 6k excess in week 14, how many of those do you guess are from 'lockdown' vs 'covid' ? 30% or less ? 50 % or more ? Let's hear your best guess. Let's hear your opinion on how many deaths in week 14 did NOT occur because of lockdown ? Or do you think this number is zero ? Do you think the total death numbers from previous flu spike did not included anyone who died not because of flu but because of the effects of the flu spike on health systems ? That all the excess in these peaks you compare with were entirely down to flu only ?

[erolz66]

On the crucial question of 'how many of the KNOWN UK excess deaths from all causes are from lockdown and how many from covid' is the following not a valid enquiry to try and answer that question ?

Sweden has not locked down. So how many excess deaths from all causes is it showing, vs previous flu spike there. If it is showing a smaller increase in excess deaths vs previous flu spike than the UK in same / similar period, this wopuld give some valid indication of how many of these excess deaths are lockdwon relate or not ? Or is my logic flawed here ?

I have not looked for and at Sweden hard known numbers - total deaths all causes vs previous flu spikes in Sweden. I do not know what such an investigation would show. I do think that it is one worth spending some time on, though mine is actually very limited right now. Do you want to try and find and present Sweden's hard fact known numbers for such a comparison Tim ? Or will just keep using soft numbers and 'implication' that the hard ones just show that lockdown is the cause of the majority of these deaths, without providing any real evidence for why you think this and without dreaming up ways the theory could be tested in some way ?

[erolz66]

And having 'dreamt up' the Sweden test - on just KNOWN number of deaths per week all causes , with very very limited time I start to try and look for Sweden weekly numbers for total deaths all causes. I find this

https://www.thelocal.se/20200427/sweden ... he-century

Does this tell us anything about how many of the FACT ONS excess deaths might be from 'lockdwon' and how many from 'covid' ?

I had not looked at this before because personally I had little feeling that of the excess deaths in ONS numbers the majority was from lockdown, but am always prepared to hear what others think on questions that I think are valid (and not just spewing my exprts guess is better than yours) and then reconsider, think of ways to 'test' theories and refine my feeling from that. That is what I did here on the 'valid' question how many of UK excess deaths from all causes are related to lockdown. On first 'glance' at using the 'test against Sweden' approach, I would claim early indications are that my initial feeling was not totally out of wack. It is possible that it was on the high side and not the low. If and when I have time I will dig deeper and refine.

This kind of 'process' is what I consider to be an example of 'critical thinking' and of 'using numbers not emotion to come do conclusions'.

[Tim Drayton]

As a starting point, we could have a look at what the BBC - nowadays massively funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (see: https://unitynewsnetwork.co.uk/revealed ... oundation/ ) - has to say:

“In the week ending 3 April there were 16,000 deaths - 6,000 more than could be expected at this time of the year when the number of deaths normally starts to fall with winter over.
This is the highest death number since these figures were first published in 2005, more than the previous peak seen during the bad flu outbreak of 2015.
Not all these extra deaths were down to coronavirus, but a significant number were.
…
What is causing these other deaths?
Experts have suggested they could be related to people being deterred from seeking treatment for medical emergencies such as strokes or heart attacks.
This is why the UK government's chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty was stressing on Thursday the "NHS was open for business".
Prof Robert Dingwall from Nottingham Trent University says there will certainly be "collateral damage" from other factors such as:
• mental health problems and suicides linked to self-isolation
• heart problems from lack of activity
• the impact on health from increased unemployment and reduced living standards
Others have also pointed to the health cost from steps such as delaying routine operations and cancer screening.
Meanwhile, University of Bristol researchers say the benefit of a long-term lockdown in reducing premature deaths could be outweighed by the lost life expectancy from a prolonged economic dip.
And the tipping point, they say, is a 6.4% decline in the size of the economy - on a par with what happened following the 2008 financial crash.
It would see a loss of three months of life on average across the population because of factors such declining living standards and poorer health care.”

[erolz66]

As a starting point, we could have a look at what the BBC - nowadays massively funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (see: https://unitynewsnetwork.co.uk/revealed ... oundation/ ) - has to say:

“In the week ending 3 April there were 16,000 deaths - 6,000 more than could be expected at this time of the year when the number of deaths normally starts to fall with winter over.
This is the highest death number since these figures were first published in 2005, more than the previous peak seen during the bad flu outbreak of 2015.
Not all these extra deaths were down to coronavirus, but a significant number were.
…
What is causing these other deaths?
Experts have suggested they could be related to people being deterred from seeking treatment for medical emergencies such as strokes or heart attacks.
This is why the UK government's chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty was stressing on Thursday the "NHS was open for business".
Prof Robert Dingwall from Nottingham Trent University says there will certainly be "collateral damage" from other factors such as:
• mental health problems and suicides linked to self-isolation
• heart problems from lack of activity
• the impact on health from increased unemployment and reduced living standards
Others have also pointed to the health cost from steps such as delaying routine operations and cancer screening.
Meanwhile, University of Bristol researchers say the benefit of a long-term lockdown in reducing premature deaths could be outweighed by the lost life expectancy from a prolonged economic dip.
And the tipping point, they say, is a 6.4% decline in the size of the economy - on a par with what happened following the 2008 financial crash.
It would see a loss of three months of life on average across the population because of factors such declining living standards and poorer health care.”

Yes SOME of the 6k excess will be from some things like these. Is the question then not 'how many' ?

Things like "the impact on health from increased unemployment and reduced living standards" are imo obviously unlikely to have had any significant impact in weekly figures so soon. They may show down the road but not in week 14 figures. Or is that me 'conformation biasing' ? If we are to include such things (which will NOT be in immediate weeks figures') then should we not also look at how many lives have been lengthen by reduction in pollution (reduction in traffic and thus RTA's WILL show up immediately in weekly figures).

This is a discussion we should be having. It does not involve STARTING with 'guess numbers'. Still waiting for YOUR current best guess Tim as an actual % for week 14. What say you ? 30% or less from lockdown ? 60% or more from lockdown ?

[cyprusgrump]

7.4bn World-wide population.

56 million people died in 2017

3,975,012 total cases of COVID-19

273,826 Deaths from COVID-19

1,371,641 Recovered from COVID-19

FACTS!

Don't you think you are being a bit hysterical ErLolz...?

#Laughatbedwetters

[cyprusgrump]

Here is an interesting chart, the deadly death seems to (as has been previously claimed) take old people who were standing at Death's Door anyway...

Who knew...?

So why are we all locked down and the economy FUBAR...?

#Laughatbedwetters

EDITED: To add The Source

[erolz66]

7.4bn World-wide population.

56 million people died in 2017

3,975,012 total cases of COVID-19

273,826 Deaths from COVID-19

1,371,641 Recovered from COVID-19

FACTS!

Don't you think you are being a bit hysterical ErLolz...?

#Laughatbedwetters

I think you have next to nothing to offer the 'discussion' except your insults, to me and to ANYONE who does not agree with you (which is everyone here on RoC 14 day quarantine to date) with 'bedwetter' and the like.

So HOW MANY DEATHS would the global figures need to reach CG before you accept what a twatish 'argument' this constant increasing tally is , whilst it continues to go up and up by the day ? How many CG ? 1 million ? 3 million ? 6 , 30 ?

Can you not imagine an Italian CG posting daily (in Italian)

You are bedwetters - we only have 1 death
5 deaths
20 deaths
80 deaths
150 deaths
300 deaths
800 deaths
1200 deaths
.
.
.
.
.
.
current guess figure today (hopkins) 30,201 deaths

and on and on

[cyprusgrump]

7.4bn World-wide population.

56 million people died in 2017

3,975,012 total cases of COVID-19

273,826 Deaths from COVID-19

1,371,641 Recovered from COVID-19

FACTS!

Don't you think you are being a bit hysterical ErLolz...?

#Laughatbedwetters

I think you have next to nothing to offer the 'discussion' except your insults, to me and to ANYONE who does not agree with you (which is everyone here on RoC 14 day quarantine to date) with 'bedwetter' and the like.

So HOW MANY DEATHS would the global figures need to reach CG before you accept what a twatish 'argument' this constant increasing tally is , whilst it continues to go up and up by the day ? How many CG ? 1 million ? 3 million ? 6 , 30 ?

Can you not imagine an Italian CG posting daily (in Italian)

You are bedwetters - we only have 1 death
5 deaths
20 deaths
80 deaths
150 deaths
300 deaths
800 deaths
1200 deaths
.
.
.
.
.
.
current guess figure today (hopkins) 30,201 deaths

and on and on

Another of your ridiculous assertions...

I can assure you that you don't speak for everybody in quarantine for 14 days as I know 4 of them personally...

Have you considered sectioning yourself...? I believe it is a simple process...

#Laughatbedwetters

[erolz66]

Here is an interesting chart, the deadly death seems to (as has been previously claimed) take old people who were standing at Death's Door anyway...

Who knew...?

So try using your brain then. If the 6k excess week 14 were people who were going to die within a week anyway regardless of covid they just dies a week early, then what do you think that would mean for week 15 FACT total death any cause numbers ? Can you see any evidence of 'imminent death anyway' figures in the hard fact data we have so far ? Lets say 50 % of excess deaths so far in weeks we have data for were people who were going to die anyway in next three months, then in three months time tghe average death figures should be 5k LOWER than five year average, showing they just 'died early'. If that is what the FACT show I will accept that. Yet to date they do NOT show this do they ? From the FACT numbers you do not 'dispute' ?