Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz66]

Australia, like Sweden, isn't on full lock down.

Now maybe. Back just a month ago

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... read-rules

Coronavirus crackdown: Australia issues HUGE fine to residents flouting lockdown rules AUSTRALIA imposed new measures to slow the spread of coronavirus in the country on Monday, meaning some residents could be fined or jailed for leaving their home.

(their caps not mine)

So is your view Pahpitis that this kind of lock down that Australia DID impose and is now easing off like so many other places, was pointless and unnecessary and has played no material part in Australia's good place on the chart ? If this is not what you are saying then what are you saying ? That lock down for limited period was 'right' and now its right to relax it ? Is that what you are saying ? If so how does Sweden fit in then ?

[cyprusgrump]

We can not know R number with any certainty for obvious reasons. We can only estimate it. If you deal with 'hard' numbers then Sweden does not look good in comparative terms re having controlled the increase in new infections.

And there we have it, ErLolz knows better than Sweden’s public health agency who claim to have calculated R to an error margin of ±0.02pts...

Who knew that we had such a talented virologist, economist and epidemiologist posting on the site eh?

You should give the Swedes a call ErLolz, I'm absolutely sure they'd be grateful for your superior knowledge in these difficult times!

How can R be known with certainty within a given group , like all of Sweden, without knowing with certainty how many people are infected at a given point in time in that group ? Explain that to me. As far as I can work out it can only be estimated and guessed or extrapolated up from a smaller group where every infected person in that group is known with certainty. If I am wrong then explain to me why I am wrong ? I do not mean barrage me with a subset of 'experts'. Let's work with the 'we don't believe experts any more' line here. Your expert, my expert blah blah. Just explain to me where my 'logic' on this is wrong, yourself, using your own 'critical thinking'.

Some excerpts from your own article

We don't know because "the R" is notoriously difficult to pin down

PS For all of its prominence in virus modelling, 'the R' is not a known number. It can only be guessed at, because the actual number of infections can only be guessed at.

Or explain Sweden's place on the chart if you prefer. Yourself. Not using 'experts'.

It is difficult, but I think I am leaning towards believing Sweden’s public health agency than keyboard warrior ErLolz...

Although I am sure they didn't take any of the difficulties in calculating R that you cited into account...

As I said in an earlier post, we'll know soon enough who was right and who was wrong won't we...?

[Paphitis]

Australia, like Sweden, isn't on full lock down.

Now maybe. Back just a month ago

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... read-rules

Coronavirus crackdown: Australia issues HUGE fine to residents flouting lockdown rules AUSTRALIA imposed new measures to slow the spread of coronavirus in the country on Monday, meaning some residents could be fined or jailed for leaving their home.

(their caps not mine)

So is your view Pahpitis that this kind of lock down that Australia DID impose and is now easing off like so many other places, was pointless and unnecessary and has played no material part in Australia's good place on the chart ? If this is not what you are saying then what are you saying ? That lock down for limited period was 'right' and now its right to relax it ? Is that what you are saying ? If so how does Sweden fit in then ?

Australia hasn't eased off on anything just yet. They plan to do so next week.

But our definition of lock down isn't the same as let's say how Cyprus defined lock down and applied it.

You can go to work. All offices remained open. Public service remained open.

Schools continued to operate and kids have attended school with only a handful of cases detected in our school system.

If you were stopped by police on the street, and they ask you, all you have tio say is that you are going to work, or shopping. Can't do anything about it.

You can go for a walk in the park whenever you like.

I am currently finishing off a project. Today, I dealt with 3 painters, 2 gyprockers, a tiler, kitchen installer and glacier. People coming and going and me technically going wherever I liked because technically, "I was working" Went and ordered locks, hardware, scaffolding and even visited another builder mate to coordinate between trades. Construction game is still going bonkers .

[erolz66]

It is difficult, but I think I am leaning towards believing Sweden’s public health agency than keyboard warrior ErLolz...

Although I am sure they didn't take any of the difficulties in calculating R that you cited into account...

As I said in an earlier post, we'll know soon enough who was right and who was wrong won't we...?

Where have I ever said I know what the R number is. ? I do not. I am the one pointing out that NO ONE knows with any real accuracy. Exactly as the very article you cited does. I am pointing out numbers tested positive is much much much more known and knowable that R can be. I am saying once more that when I try and think for myself I go back to the numbers that are hard and simple and understandable. So AGAIN I ask the question is R is as low as the guess made, why do I not see it on 'the chart'

As for knowing soon enough who was right and who was wrong, exactly what hindsight metric are you going to use to declare that victory and over what time scale. If in a week Sweden is still significantly higher than most other countries on 'the chart' and in the hard knowable numbers like total infections and new infections per week, will you 'concede defeat' then ? In 2 weeks ? In a month ? In a year ? Or is there some other hindsight metric you will use to declare victory or loss ?

[erolz66]

I try and 'check' everything but stuff from you more so.

But our definition of lock down isn't the same as let's say how Cyprus defined lock down and applied it.You can go to work. All offices remained open. Public service remained open. Schools continued to operate and kids have attended school with only a handful of cases detected in our school system. If you were stopped by police on the street, and they ask you, all you have tio say is that you are going to work, or shopping. Can't do anything about it. You can go for a walk in the park whenever you like.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... read-rules dated Mar 31

Residents of the state must not leave their homes unless they have a ‘reasonable excuse’ for doing so. These excuses are broadly defined as: obtaining food or other goods and services; travelling for the purposes of work or education if this cannot be done from home; exercise; medical or caring reasons. Public gatherings of two or more people are also banned, unless such gatherings are of members of the same household or are essential for work or education. Pubs and restaurants are also required to close, although they may still serve food or beverages for people to consume off the premises. Failure to comply with the new rules could mean a maximum prison sentence of half a year and/or a fine of up to $11,000 AUD.

Although the tougher rules currently in place across some Australian states are broadly similar to those currently enforced in the UK, the country has not been as badly hit by Covid-19 as of yet.

https://theconversation.com/australian- ... -be-133432 12 march

Australian schools are closing because of coronavirus, but should they be? A further 13 other countries, including Australia, have reported some closures of schools. Some of these are reactive, responding only when an infection is identified in a school. So far in Australia all school closures have been reactive.

This then is what you consider to be 'akin to what Sweden has done except for bars and restaurants' ?

[cyprusgrump]

Where have I ever said I know what the R number is. ?

Yet another Straw Man ErLolz...?

You didn't, nor did I claim that you did...

You said...

We can not know R number with any certainty for obvious reasons.

And I pointed out that Sweden’s public health agency had calculated it to 0.85, with an error margin of ±0.02pts.

Straw Man and obfuscation....

[Paphitis]

I try and 'check' everything but stuff from you more so.

But our definition of lock down isn't the same as let's say how Cyprus defined lock down and applied it.You can go to work. All offices remained open. Public service remained open. Schools continued to operate and kids have attended school with only a handful of cases detected in our school system. If you were stopped by police on the street, and they ask you, all you have tio say is that you are going to work, or shopping. Can't do anything about it. You can go for a walk in the park whenever you like.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... read-rules dated Mar 31

Residents of the state must not leave their homes unless they have a ‘reasonable excuse’ for doing so. These excuses are broadly defined as: obtaining food or other goods and services; travelling for the purposes of work or education if this cannot be done from home; exercise; medical or caring reasons. Public gatherings of two or more people are also banned, unless such gatherings are of members of the same household or are essential for work or education. Pubs and restaurants are also required to close, although they may still serve food or beverages for people to consume off the premises. Failure to comply with the new rules could mean a maximum prison sentence of half a year and/or a fine of up to $11,000 AUD.

Although the tougher rules currently in place across some Australian states are broadly similar to those currently enforced in the UK, the country has not been as badly hit by Covid-19 as of yet.

https://theconversation.com/australian- ... -be-133432 12 march

Australian schools are closing because of coronavirus, but should they be? A further 13 other countries, including Australia, have reported some closures of schools. Some of these are reactive, responding only when an infection is identified in a school. So far in Australia all school closures have been reactive.

This then is what you consider to be 'akin to what Sweden has done except for bars and restaurants' ?

Personally, I don't know anyone stopped by police.

Apart from airports that is. they stop you there. In fact you have to pass through a police check where they ask you for papers to check the purpose of your travel. That's to differentiate whether you should be in lock down or not.

Australians have never been on full lock down.

And right now, it is even more lax. Police patrols generally mind their businesses. You can walk pass police and they don't even take a second look at you.

You don't have to isolate or go on lock down because you are allowed to go to work. You are allowed to take your kids to school. You can walk your dog or go for a bike ride or a jog.

You can go shopping. You can go to hardware shops and do just about anything you like. in other words, if you look like you are doing something, going to work, shopping, seeing your accountant or just about whatever, then go right ahead.

there have been horror stories in the media where this guy was fined for washing his car after work. It was all over the media and he got off the fine.

But in my travels today, streets were full of cars, all kids are going to school, there was a line up at the bowser because fuel was dirt cheap,

Tomorrow, I have an appointment with my accountant and have to deal with so many trades. I have never been so productive. I got 2 constructions sites on the go and have about 20 odd people working and I also meet with my partner because we hot stuff in the pipeline.

I meet dozens of people every day: landscapes, brickies, cementers, security companies, hardware reps, go shopping for materials, painters, glaciers, flooring, chippies, electricians, plumbers you name it. My brain is a literal computer processing hundreds of bits of information at any one time.

Also got a legal case and have to liaise with lawyers - solicitor and QC. Had a round table with 4 other people day before yesterday. Yep, I am up to my neck in shit.

I also need to have a haircut again, but need to find the time. Went past a few police patrols as well. Not even a boo from them.

[Paphitis]

On most nights, I have my Projects Manager and Chippie (of number 10 fame) extraordinaire, sitting at my dinner table having dinner with my family and my children, then a couple of single malts to wash it down before they drive home.

Still shake people's hands. I do however wash my hands more than I use to just in case. My Koumbaro still comes over regularly as well, to coordinate.

Sorry, but this Chy-na Virus isn't going to slow me down.

I see it as a time to get stuff done.

I am fed up with all this Chy-na Virus nonsense. Don't watch the news and quite literally if the Australian Government declared a full lock down, I am quite likely to not know about it and get in my car and go about my normal business for as long as I can get away with it. It's like the boy that cried wolf. Now I don't take it seriously.

If I get fined (unlikely) then I don't care.

If I catch it, I will isolate myslef no doubt, but with all the over reaction, what are the chances I will catch it? Basically my chances are stuff all. With less than 900 cases of Chy-na Virus, there is more chance I will get run over by a car or die at a construction site because I don't wear a hard hat.

[erolz66]

Where have I ever said I know what the R number is. ?

Yet another Straw Man ErLolz...?

You didn't, nor did I claim that you did...

You said...

We can not know R number with any certainty for obvious reasons.

And I pointed out that Sweden’s public health agency had calculated it to 0.85, with an error margin of ±0.02pts.

Straw Man and obfuscation....

You are just missing the point I am making. We can continue to play 'my expert is better than your expert' endlessly just as we did with Brexit before. I see little point. When you play the 'my expert is better than yours' with a number that everyone knows "'the R' is not a known number. It can only be guessed at, because the actual number of infections can only be guessed at." this is even more pointless and futile than ever.

I am NOT claiming that MY guess is better than Sweden's guess at R. That is YOUR straw man argument. I am saying that any guess at R is a GUESS because that is just fact that everyone accepts, including your Swedish experts. You are just playing the game that 'their guess is more likely to be right than mine' yet I am not making ANY guess.

Look at the numbers that ARE known and knowable and hard is a much more useful exercise if what we are doing is really trying to understand for ourselves and not just 'pushing our side regardless'.

Why will you not just look at the simple numbers and work from there ? Is it BECAUSE they do not fit so well with the side you have chosen ? That you chose back when there were practically no numbers at all on which to base a judgement.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -in-europe

Ministers and experts have warned against international comparisons, saying the figure for excess mortality – the number of deaths from all causes that exceed the average for the time of year – is a more meaningful gauge.

I have been saying this from when these numbers were being used by you to show 'the reaction to the virus is too extreme' all the way up till now. I have always used these numbers as my 'starting point'. Not uised a starting point of 'find numbers that support my side'.

I also support this kind of thing from same article, because it makes sense to me when I look at the hard knowable simple numbers and think for myself.

Prof David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University and a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said: “Well over 3,000 [of the excess deaths] weren’t labelled as Covid. So nearly a third were from something else

and

Prof James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute at the University of Oxford, called for an urgent review into deaths caused indirectly by the virus. “We urgently need to identify the cause of these deaths. There are many plausible theories as to their cause, however, we need real data on this urgently,” he said. “As we go forward, we want to minimise all deaths, not just those tagged as Covid-19.”

We DO need to get better numbers on how many of the massive increase in excess deaths are not from covid but from lockdown. We need to do so so we can make the best judgements we can on how to move forward, without hindsight, which we do not have. I have no agenda of continuing lockdown if it doing more harm than good. I think there are those who have an agenda for getting rid of lock down reggardless of how much harm it is or is not doing vs the virus itself.

and over all from the prior 'expert' this also chimes true based on looking at the hard known simple numbers we do have

“We are not doing very well and it’s been another very bad week. I really don’t like this league table of who’s top and who’s not, but there’s no denying that these are really serious numbers.”

[erolz66]

Why do you think it is CG that to date not a single person has shown agreement with your view that the RoC requiring people entering the RoC from outside must go in to 14 day quarantine is a disproportionate response to the virus ?

Is it because they are ALL stupid, sheep led by MSM media and those that have voted have done so not understanding what it is they voted for ? Every single one of us. Or could there be some other explanation ?