Cyprus-Forum.com

[Paphitis]

Sweden tames its ‘R number’ without lockdown

Sweden has been the world’s Covid-19 outlier, pursuing social distancing but rejecting mandatory lockdown. Schools, bars and restaurants are open – albeit with strong voluntary social distancing compliance and streets that often look almost as empty as Britain’s. Has this been enough? Sweden’s public health agency has now published a study of its R number, a metric which the UK is using to judge the success of the lockdown. The UK objective is to push R below one, by which it means it wants the number of new cases to fall. Last week, the UK’s R number was estimated at 0.8 (± 0.2 points), a figure described as an achievement of lockdown. But Sweden’s reading is 0.85, with a smaller error margin of ±0.02pts.

Yet when I look at the data and think for myself - this is what I see. From John Hopkins numbers as off 04 05 2020

Sweden - Total confirmed cases 22,721. Latest weekly confirmed cases - 3,795
Norway - Total confirmed cases 7,904. Latest weekly confirmed cases - 305

Or if I look at this comparison using 'the graph' this is what I see

sweden3.JPG

So you care to discuss this apparent 'discrepancy' between these raw numbers and the article you posted CG ? Somehow I doubt you want to do that. I suspect you will just keep sending more and more links that follow your chosen side and ignore all those that do not. That is all I have seen you do here so far. Who is really being blindly led by MSM narratives here ?

You didn't include the graph for both South Korea and Australia.

Any reason for that?

Would you run our of space because of the allowable picture dimension space?

[cyprusgrump]

Sweden tames its ‘R number’ without lockdown

Sweden has been the world’s Covid-19 outlier, pursuing social distancing but rejecting mandatory lockdown. Schools, bars and restaurants are open – albeit with strong voluntary social distancing compliance and streets that often look almost as empty as Britain’s. Has this been enough? Sweden’s public health agency has now published a study of its R number, a metric which the UK is using to judge the success of the lockdown. The UK objective is to push R below one, by which it means it wants the number of new cases to fall. Last week, the UK’s R number was estimated at 0.8 (± 0.2 points), a figure described as an achievement of lockdown. But Sweden’s reading is 0.85, with a smaller error margin of ±0.02pts.

Yet when I look at the data and think for myself - this is what I see. From John Hopkins numbers as off 04 05 2020

Sweden - Total confirmed cases 22,721. Latest weekly confirmed cases - 3,795
Norway - Total confirmed cases 7,904. Latest weekly confirmed cases - 305

Or if I look at this comparison using 'the graph' this is what I see

sweden3.JPG

So you care to discuss this apparent 'discrepancy' between these raw numbers and the article you posted CG ? Somehow I doubt you want to do that. I suspect you will just keep sending more and more links that follow your chosen side and ignore all those that do not. That is all I have seen you do here so far. Who is really being blindly led by MSM narratives here ?

*sigh*

The whole point of the article is that Sweden has achieved R<1 without imposing draconian restrictions on its citizens.

Clearly if you lock people in their homes 24/7 they are less likely to become infected.

The problem remains that without a cure these people are more likely to become infected whereas the Swedes will have developed a herd immunity.

The intention of lockdown was purely to 'flatten the curve' and ensure that hospitals are not overwhelmed. That hasn't happened generally and there is no reason to continue to do so.

Again, it is amazing that somebody that continually claims to be 'only interested in seeking the truth' is so dismissive of any views or evidence that doesn't agree with 'your side'.

Why, it is almost as if (as so often previously) you have already made your mind up...

[erolz66]

Sweden tames its ‘R number’ without lockdown

Sweden has been the world’s Covid-19 outlier, pursuing social distancing but rejecting mandatory lockdown. Schools, bars and restaurants are open – albeit with strong voluntary social distancing compliance and streets that often look almost as empty as Britain’s. Has this been enough? Sweden’s public health agency has now published a study of its R number, a metric which the UK is using to judge the success of the lockdown. The UK objective is to push R below one, by which it means it wants the number of new cases to fall. Last week, the UK’s R number was estimated at 0.8 (± 0.2 points), a figure described as an achievement of lockdown. But Sweden’s reading is 0.85, with a smaller error margin of ±0.02pts.

Yet when I look at the data and think for myself - this is what I see. From John Hopkins numbers as off 04 05 2020

Sweden - Total confirmed cases 22,721. Latest weekly confirmed cases - 3,795
Norway - Total confirmed cases 7,904. Latest weekly confirmed cases - 305

Or if I look at this comparison using 'the graph' this is what I see

sweden3.JPG

So you care to discuss this apparent 'discrepancy' between these raw numbers and the article you posted CG ? Somehow I doubt you want to do that. I suspect you will just keep sending more and more links that follow your chosen side and ignore all those that do not. That is all I have seen you do here so far. Who is really being blindly led by MSM narratives here ?

You didn't include the graph for both South Korea and Australia.

Any reason for that?

Anyone can run the chart for any countries they chose https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ but I know how busy you are de chines izing you are . So to save you trouble here is Autralia added, that did lock down and South Korea, that pretty much followed WHO guide lines 100 % before and during the crisis. If you want to see when in time different countries started to drop from the 'doubling line' relative to each other you need to 'play' the chart from the source site given.

pahreq.JPG

Would you run our of space because of the allowable picture dimension space?

You might think that for someone who claimed to have , within minutes of seeing it, understood 'the chart' and the youtube video explaining it, that such a question was un needed. Anyway your answer in in the chart above.

So what do you think Paphitis , from this chart , that you previously 'accepted' and 'understood'. What is it telling you ? Sweden an exemplar model to follow ?

[erolz66]

The whole point of the article is that Sweden has achieved R<1 without imposing draconian restrictions on its citizens.

We can not know R number with any certainty for obvious reasons. We can only estimate it. If you deal with 'hard' numbers then Sweden does not look good in comparative terms re having controlled the increase in new infections.

The problem remains that without a cure these people are more likely to become infected whereas the Swedes will have developed a herd immunity.

We do not yet know and can not know until after the fact, what degree of immunity infections gives or how long it might last. Given that 'banking' on herd immunity seems risky to me.

The intention of lockdown was purely to 'flatten the curve' and ensure that hospitals are not overwhelmed. That hasn't happened generally and there is no reason to continue to do so.

And many places are now easing those restrictions in a manged way as the number of new infections reduces. Like Cyprus for example, both side.

Again, it is amazing that somebody that continually claims to be 'only interested in seeking the truth' is so dismissive of any views or evidence that doesn't agree with 'your side'.

I am not dismissive of them. I am more than willing to discuss them. I think the points I raise above have some validity but am more than willing to discuss them if anyone thinks there are flaws. What I find tedious is someone having picked their side just spewing out link after link after link that supports their chosen said and then NOT being willing to discuss anything about those links. I welcome this exchange as discussion but this has been the expection that proves the rule imo as far as you go to date CG.

Why, it is almost as if (as so often previously) you have already made your mind up...

Try sticking to what I actually say, rather than what you think I must believe because of your simplistic binary lens through which you appear to see the world and I suspect discussion may be more fruitful for all. Every point I have raised as to why I find your article less than convincing is based on the hardest simplest numbers I know of. If Sweden has achieved , without lock down, a reduction in the R rate, why is this not showing in these simple and hard numbers ? Explain that to me. Or I will continue to remain sceptical about the claim made in the article you cited. That is how critical thinking works for me. Your article posits 'Sweden has reduced R'. So I think, how can I check this, verfiy it in ways I can understand. Leading to 'if it has reduced R then I should see it in 'the chart'. I go to 'the chart' and I do not see it. I remain sceptical. No mind made up. Just attempts to think critically.

For what it is worth on this theme I think a better case against lock down, as it has been implement so far, from the simple hard numbers we have to date, would be the UK and not Sweden. UK has locked down. It is not yet showing on 'the chart' substantive reduction in new infection. The chart does have lag, that is one of its strengths and weaknesses and there is some indication that finally lock down is showing in the actual numbers, but only just. I personally suspect the reason why lock down in the UK is not yet clearly showing decreasing daily new infections is because we dithered and went first for 'herd immunity ' and then changed tack to 'lock down' - possibly worse than either approach chosen and stuck too imo. Time will increasingly tell.

[erolz66]

Running the chart for UK and Sweden with a few comparables and moving the doubling line from every 2 days to every 25 days you see

UK.JPG

Looking at this it does imo beg the question if lock down is so effective why is the UK in same place as Sweden ? I have a personal theory, outlined above, but the point is the data begs that question. The hardest simplest data. This would be the kind of thing that would influence my views on effectiveness of lock down vs no lock down, way more than a MSM article talking about R rates (that we can not know with certainty right now and are all guesses) pre selected by someone who has so clearly made up their mind regardless of what the simple hard data might show.

[erolz66]

and for what it is worth here is the same chart as above is Singapore thrown in, another favourite 'exemplar' nation of Paphitis and some section of the media, mains stream all way through to nutter (Icke).

pahsing.JPG

When I hear 'look at how well Singapore is doing' - something that I do hear a significant amount and I check for myself against the chart - I just do not see it.

[erolz66]

Why, it is almost as if (as so often previously) you have already made your mind up...

This is a 'phenomenon' worthy of its own thread, if not entire site imo. I see it and experience it everywhere, including Brexit discussions, Cyprus problem discussion and pretty much everywhere.

When one side has 'chosen their side' and simply barrages out anything that supports that chosen side, then someone else who has not 'chosen a side' (or not to same degree) becomes forced to try and refute this one sided barrage, creating an impression and to some degree a reality of having made up their mind, as being in the opposite binary camp. It is self fulfilling. Discussion is destroyed. No 'space' is left for the second person to even begin to be able to express their doubts about the 'side' they have been forced in to in the face of the barrage. This is how 'process' ends up being a bigger cause of dispute and frustration and anger, and thus failure to find consensus ans solution, than even the issue over which 'sides' were taken imo. I have a (evolving , ill formed) theory that a lot if not most 'conflict' is actually down to 'process' as much or more than the 'thing' that supposedly is the source of conflict.

[cyprusgrump]

We can not know R number with any certainty for obvious reasons. We can only estimate it. If you deal with 'hard' numbers then Sweden does not look good in comparative terms re having controlled the increase in new infections.

And there we have it, ErLolz knows better than Sweden’s public health agency who claim to have calculated R to an error margin of ±0.02pts...

Who knew that we had such a talented virologist, economist and epidemiologist posting on the site eh?

You should give the Swedes a call ErLolz, I'm absolutely sure they'd be grateful for your superior knowledge in these difficult times!

[erolz66]

We can not know R number with any certainty for obvious reasons. We can only estimate it. If you deal with 'hard' numbers then Sweden does not look good in comparative terms re having controlled the increase in new infections.

And there we have it, ErLolz knows better than Sweden’s public health agency who claim to have calculated R to an error margin of ±0.02pts...

Who knew that we had such a talented virologist, economist and epidemiologist posting on the site eh?

You should give the Swedes a call ErLolz, I'm absolutely sure they'd be grateful for your superior knowledge in these difficult times!

How can R be known with certainty within a given group , like all of Sweden, without knowing with certainty how many people are infected at a given point in time in that group ? Explain that to me. As far as I can work out it can only be estimated and guessed or extrapolated up from a smaller group where every infected person in that group is known with certainty. If I am wrong then explain to me why I am wrong ? I do not mean barrage me with a subset of 'experts'. Let's work with the 'we don't believe experts any more' line here. Your expert, my expert blah blah. Just explain to me where my 'logic' on this is wrong, yourself, using your own 'critical thinking'.

Some excerpts from your own article

We don't know because "the R" is notoriously difficult to pin down

PS For all of its prominence in virus modelling, 'the R' is not a known number. It can only be guessed at, because the actual number of infections can only be guessed at.

Or explain Sweden's place on the chart if you prefer. Yourself. Not using 'experts'.

[Paphitis]

Sweden tames its ‘R number’ without lockdown

Sweden has been the world’s Covid-19 outlier, pursuing social distancing but rejecting mandatory lockdown. Schools, bars and restaurants are open – albeit with strong voluntary social distancing compliance and streets that often look almost as empty as Britain’s. Has this been enough? Sweden’s public health agency has now published a study of its R number, a metric which the UK is using to judge the success of the lockdown. The UK objective is to push R below one, by which it means it wants the number of new cases to fall. Last week, the UK’s R number was estimated at 0.8 (± 0.2 points), a figure described as an achievement of lockdown. But Sweden’s reading is 0.85, with a smaller error margin of ±0.02pts.

Yet when I look at the data and think for myself - this is what I see. From John Hopkins numbers as off 04 05 2020

Sweden - Total confirmed cases 22,721. Latest weekly confirmed cases - 3,795
Norway - Total confirmed cases 7,904. Latest weekly confirmed cases - 305

Or if I look at this comparison using 'the graph' this is what I see

sweden3.JPG

So you care to discuss this apparent 'discrepancy' between these raw numbers and the article you posted CG ? Somehow I doubt you want to do that. I suspect you will just keep sending more and more links that follow your chosen side and ignore all those that do not. That is all I have seen you do here so far. Who is really being blindly led by MSM narratives here ?

You didn't include the graph for both South Korea and Australia.

Any reason for that?

Anyone can run the chart for any countries they chose https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ but I know how busy you are de chines izing you are . So to save you trouble here is Autralia added, that did lock down and South Korea, that pretty much followed WHO guide lines 100 % before and during the crisis. If you want to see when in time different countries started to drop from the 'doubling line' relative to each other you need to 'play' the chart from the source site given.

pahreq.JPG

Would you run our of space because of the allowable picture dimension space?

You might think that for someone who claimed to have , within minutes of seeing it, understood 'the chart' and the youtube video explaining it, that such a question was un needed. Anyway your answer in in the chart above.

So what do you think Paphitis , from this chart , that you previously 'accepted' and 'understood'. What is it telling you ? Sweden an exemplar model to follow ?

Actually, the only difference between Australia and Sweden is that Australia has closed restaurants and cafes. Plus some restrictions on international travelers.

Australia, like Sweden, isn't on full lock down. They were at one point headed that way, but our Government in their wisdom cautioned the Australian people to be careful what they wish for because full lock down would have totally trashed our economy and result in much higher unemployment.

Our streets are now a lot busier too, and we are getting peak hour traffic again, with people going and coming from work and during school drop off and pick up times.

Australia, isn't a role model for advocates on full lock down. But it is doing much better than countries that are on full lock down.

Police don't seem to give a stuff anymore, and you can go shopping, and just about do what you want whenever you want.

No one was ever forced into isolation in their homes UNLESS, they came from overseas, or traveled on domestic flights from one state to another that wasn't work related. If it was work related, then no isolation at all. Also if you show any symptoms, or were diagnosed, then you are forced into isolation.